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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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4 hours ago, Stebo said:

It snowed here most of the day, with no accumulation, in January. Some times just gotta call a shit winter for what it is, shit.

 

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Well that's part of the equation, the not having cold air deal, which is certainly the case now, has good ens support in finally changing for the better. The 12z EPS seemed to trend stronger in spiking ridging to and north of AK next week and the GEFS has been favoring that consistently, so that should get cross polar flow going in concert with continued Arctic and Atlantic domain blocking, along with -PNA keeping a steady stream of shortwaves coming ashore.

There's nothing like the black hole AK vortex +++EPO from 2011-12 in the offing and since the ensembles haven't trended away from a colder and active look as the period has gotten closer, not inclined to punt now.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

 

Idk? Kinda been dreaming about an 11-12 winter lately. :lol:

 

 

BC 5NW 2011-12 Snow totals.PNG

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14 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

 

 

Idk? Kinda been dreaming about an 11-12 winter lately. :lol:

 

 

BC 5NW 2011-12 Snow totals.PNG

What was funny about the much maligned Winter of 2011-12, is had it not been for Morch I think it would have just blended in as run of the mill mild Winter and not everyone's least favorite Winter in their memory lol. We actually had 2 snowfalls, January 20th & February 11th, where we got several inches of snow with temperatures in the mid teens. Legit deep Winter conditions. The problem is you would think we were Denver because it vanished 3 days later.

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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Good to see our Alabama friends getting in on the action. Going to be important having Spartman around in hurricane season so the southeastern parts of the Great Lakes sub forum (I.e. Savannah and Charleston metros) are well included.

Are you saying you like this view better?

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.1548e5f89994af1f3a001d8a0480f923.png

Let's hope the map pans out as well. 

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Are you saying you like this view better?

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.1548e5f89994af1f3a001d8a0480f923.png

Let's hope the map pans out as well. 

I don't get too hung up on the storm itself, but this is a good example of the potential of the pattern with a bowling ball system spreading the wealth.

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29 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I'm almost taken aback by this amount of consensus. If this storm doesn't pan out (insofar that it at least snows a lot somewhere nearby), then it's gonna be really hard for me to not be weenie-depressed afterwards.

Yeah all that is in the 200hr+ timeframe. May need a thread if it still shows a system inside 100 hrs 

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Models will have "storms" sprayed throughout a run on and off. The 500mb pattern is pretty much vastly different for all 3 models that go out that far. Pretty typical as well. Saying "consensus" is bs.

there is a general agreement for potential in/around that time period.


.
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18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not gonna worry about it but the extended looks more cuttery or flirting with cuttery than I'd like to see.

Amazing, right? High-lat blocking is going to prevent cutters....blah blah blah. I need to get off this site and all other weather-related sites for a while for my mental health. Won't happen, but it should. 

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I keep hearing from many reputable Meteorologists that this is an extremely complicated pattern.  It reminds me of a theory I learned back in college called the Chaos Theory!  As it relates to Weather, there are just so many variables, especially in this pattern, that make it almost impossible to forecast for than a couple days out.  It obviously is leading to many frustrations, and rightfully so.  Hang in there everyone!  Hopefully mother nature shows her hand soon.  

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1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

I keep hearing from many reputable Meteorologists that this is an extremely complicated pattern.  It reminds me of a theory I learned back in college called the Chaos Theory!  As it relates to Weather, there are just so many variables, especially in this pattern, that make it almost impossible to forecast for than a couple days out.  It obviously is leading to many frustrations, and rightfully so.  Hang in there everyone!  Hopefully mother nature shows her hand soon.  

The funny thing is that modern chaos theory arose as a direct result of trying to predict the weather. The person who is widely considered to be the founder of chaos theory was a meteorologist, and his groundbreaking paper was published in a meteorology journal. 

https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:DNF>2.0.CO;2

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6 hours ago, mimillman said:

I’ll pick up what the euro is putting down if no one else will 

GDPS, as well.
sn10_acc.us_mw.png

GFS, on the other hand:

If Friday night/Saturday morning doesn't come to fruition, we may very well have to wait until at least sometime next month for low temps below 20 degrees.
image.png.b52354e93ab7320da9e026f734aa22fb.png

This tweet from BAMWX doesn't sound good.

 

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