mimillman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Baum said: 13 days. large part of LOT under a WWA on New Years Day. And truth be, the mid range forecast of a 2 week stretch of dullsville was spot on. It’s been a stinker, no shame in calling it what it is. I don’t hold my breath for the New Years slop fest in a continental climate when sun angle is at its lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 It’s been a stinker, no shame in calling it what it is. I don’t hold my breath for the New Years slop fest in a continental climate when sun angle is at its lowest.It's been bad, too often in recent years we've had a long dull stretch for most of December into January, and this season didn't have the benefit of cold and snow in November. It's easy to forget because the snow season ended up being so long, but 18-19 had a stretch every bit as long and boring as this winter, probably worse in a way. December 2018 had 1.4" of snow and was +5.5 at ORD and January 12-13 2019 was the first bonafide measurable snow since November 25-26 2018. We'll really need to make a run to bring up the ranking of this season and need the upcoming favorable looking stretch to deliver on its potential. The good news is that cold air supply will be there and there should be a steady stream of Pac shortwaves coming ashore, so if we have bad luck with one system, we should have more chances. I remember being optimistic about the 2nd half of January 2019 and the background pattern for Feb looked very good, the predominant storm track was just too far northwest. That's where the progged strong -NAO could really help us and points east this time. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Zzzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 hours ago, mimillman said: It’s been a stinker, no shame in calling it what it is. I don’t hold my breath for the New Years slop fest in a continental climate when sun angle is at its lowest. sans 1978,1979, 1999, 2014, one of the more eventful New Years. And yes, it has been a slow winter, but it is far more typical and common that folks would like to acknowledge. Very rare is it that we get a winter that runs the table like 2014...like maybe 1979 (note even that ended about sometime in February). Remember plenty winters that did not begin until mid January and ended up making decent runs. By hook or crook we'll probably surpass 30" and end up near average. Agree with Beavis if you think you get non stop snow and cold here from December 1-February 28 rarely happens. If it did, why get pumped-it would be an everyday occurrence. BTW...if you think Minneapolis doesnt suffer days on end of single digit temps with no snow check around. Upper Penninsula by Beau different story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 47 minutes ago, Baum said: sans 1978,1979, 1999, 2014, one of the more eventful New Years. And yes, it has been a slow winter, but it is far more typical and common that folks would like to acknowledge. Very rare is it that we get a winter that runs the table like 2014...like maybe 1979 (note even that ended about sometime in February). Remember plenty winters that did not begin until mid January and ended up making decent runs. By hook or crook we'll probably surpass 30" and end up near average. Agree with Beavis if you think you get non stop snow and cold here from December 1-February 28 rarely happens. If it did, why get pumped-it would be an everyday occurrence. BTW...if you think Minneapolis doesnt suffer days on end of single digit temps with no snow check around. Upper Penninsula by Beau different story. Sure, but below avg is below avg. When you’re making runs at futility (as Hoosier likes to point out), that should not be expected either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 post 2014 has been brutal, not just the lack of snow and big dogs but it hasn't been warm or pleasant in its place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: post 2014 has been brutal, not just the lack of snow and big dogs but it hasn't been warm or pleasant in its place I think this was our last great mid winter hurrah: https://wgntv.com/weather/super-bowl-blizzard-officially-chicagos-5th-largest-snowstorm/ and this was ugly: https://watchers.news/2019/04/28/chicago-record-snow-april-2019/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 57 minutes ago, Baum said: I think this was our last great mid winter hurrah: https://wgntv.com/weather/super-bowl-blizzard-officially-chicagos-5th-largest-snowstorm/ 20+IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 59 minutes ago, Baum said: I think this was our last great mid winter hurrah: https://wgntv.com/weather/super-bowl-blizzard-officially-chicagos-5th-largest-snowstorm/ and this was ugly: https://watchers.news/2019/04/28/chicago-record-snow-april-2019/ One of my all time favorite storms. Up there with the Boxing Day Blizzard back when I lived in New York. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 The painful miss just east/southeast on 2/24/16 really seemed to set us on this bad luck streak that we've been on, minus some exceptions in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 cold seasons. I still feel optimistic about scoring during the upcoming pattern, but if we don't, then it's really just not our winter. Bad luck certainly happens, it doesn't make it easier to take for snow lovers though. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 One of my all time favorite storms. Up there with the Boxing Day Blizzard back when I lived in New York.Since I was part of the forecast process (I issued LOT's watch for the event), GHD II is easily one of my favorites, favorable trends right up until the snow started falling. If we're going to break the schneid, the upcoming pattern is what you'd like to see. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just can't make this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Just can't make this up I think Geos moved to Iowa and didn't mention it to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I think Geos moved to Iowa and didn't mention it to us. Oh your time will come again, don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I think Geos moved to Iowa and didn't mention it to us. https://www.kxly.com/snoqualmie-pass-sees-23-inches-of-new-snow-in-24-hours-reports-record-breaking-snow-this-winter/ Since he moved to Washington, I think we know where the true Mt. Geos is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 All will be right in the world if this next Friday system comes to fruition. Though our resident Alabama posters would be sad. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Iowa special incoming on 12z Euro. Joy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 wasn't even sure which event you've been alluding to at first final call: miss south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Iowa special incoming on 12z Euro. JoyI'd be surprised with that depiction cutting that far north into the strong NAO block. At this distance would rather it shows a strong system and ptype issues rather than a miss south like the previous run. The huge swing between 00z and 12z also highlights the variance at that range anyway. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 and this beauty 10 days out . Sad having to post 10 day snow maps in mid Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 wasn't even sure which event you've been alluding to at first final call: miss southI'd lean miss south being more likely than a cutter/rainer like 12z Euro but I think we're right in the envelope for a decent event with the late next week potential. Conceptually it looks more conducive to an overrunning scenario with a weaker surface wave like the GFS and the GEM are showing. Really doubting a 979 mb low north of Detroit next Friday. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 11 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: post 2014 has been brutal, not just the lack of snow and big dogs but it hasn't been warm or pleasant in its place How many shit April/May have there been in that period too. Last few Mays have gone from ice cold to sweltering in the matter of a couple weeks too. Its very screwed up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Somebody has been hogging all the cold this winter......I wonder who? Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 01/15/2021 at 02:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount 1 Verhojansk (Russia) 24266 -68.1°F 2 Tegyultya (Russia) 24967 -67.0°F 3 Amga (Russia) 24962 -66.5°F 4 Ekyuchchyu (Russia) 24361 -66.1°F 5 Iema (Russia) 24477 -65.4°F 6 Batagaj (Russia) 24263 -64.5°F 7 Sebyan-Kyuel' (Russia) 24462 -62.9°F 8 Namtsy (Russia) 24753 -62.7°F 9 Verhoyanskij Perevoz (Russia) 24668 -62.7°F 10 Krest-Hal'dzhaj (Russia) 24763 -62.5°F 11 Uchur (Russia) 31026 -61.8°F 12 Buyaga (Russia) 31011 -61.6°F 13 Nelkan (Russia) 31152 -61.6°F 14 Yurty (Russia) 24588 -61.2°F 15 Kjusjur (Russia) 21921 -61.1°F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 8 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: I'd be surprised with that depiction cutting that far north into the strong NAO block. At this distance would rather it shows a strong system and ptype issues rather than a miss south like the previous run. The huge swing between 00z and 12z also highlights the variance at that range anyway. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I always think ensembles are the way to go once you're more than a few days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I always think ensembles are the way to go once you're more than a few days outThe operational ECMWF was the second strongest member of the 12z Euro suite. One other member down to 972 mb over northern Lake Michigan. Most were in the 1000s or 990s and farther east. That's probably a good indicator of the op solution being a lower probability scenario. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Good to see the long range with an MSP special before resuming its horrendous look into February. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, mimillman said: Good to see the long range with an MSP special before resuming its horrendous look into February. Cheers I'd wait a little bit still before writing that system off. Even the Tuesday-Wednesday system has a bit of potential that I don't think anyone has pointed out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 17 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: final call: miss south $$$ Upcoming looking p zzzzz again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 8 hours ago, mimillman said: Good to see the long range with an MSP special before resuming its horrendous look into February. Cheers ensembles are all over the place. it definitely looks more active, so individual op runs are worthless. Also more cold air will be available later in January. Doesn't guarantee who does well and who doesnt, but I don't think we see April like snow systems like the one ongoing for a while. Feb may actually be our best month of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: ensembles are all over the place. it definitely looks more active, so individual op runs are worthless. Also more cold air will be available later in January. Doesn't guarantee who does well and who doesnt, but I don't think we see April like snow systems like the one ongoing for a while. Feb may actually be our best month of the winter. Should be a very easy target to reach. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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