mississaugasnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 47 minutes ago, dmc76 said: I think the opposite happens. 40’s/50’s and 60’s April to almost memorial weekend. Even some flakes in early May! Lol I hope not haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 If the Pac stays as it is, then hopefully it does abandon us. Make NE Illinois like the surface of the sun for all I care.Except it likely isn't going to stay like it's been. The +EPO/+WPO looks like it's going to go opposite phase for a time and then eventually could go to a neutral or weakly +EPO and still solidly -WPO. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Except it likely isn't going to stay like it's been. The +EPO/+WPO looks like it's going to go opposite phase for a time and then eventually could go to a neutral or weakly +EPO and still solidly -WPO. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Oh yes, I know. It's just that in the world of imperfect information, where our expectations may defy us, where Midland, Texas gets double the snow of LOT, IF the Pac were to remain unchanged, than may the -NAO be no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, dmc76 said: Euro weeklies is warm for late Jan into most of February Weeklies actually had a cold end to Jan (week 3) before a mild first half of Feb (week 4-5) then cooling towards average (week 6). That said we've been told many times that weeklies accuracy plummets after week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Gotta be careful just looking at the temperature anomalies on those weeklies. The mean 500 mb pattern and anomalies suggests that the western ridge will continue to retrograde to more of a Aleutian ridge common in La Nina but we should keep NAO blocking if the effects of the SSW make it to North America. A good poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO) continues to provide cold air delivery into the northern CONUS, as opposed to a strong lobe of the polar vortex over the entire AK domain (like 2012) which torched the CONUS all winter. While a -WPO/-PNA pattern does introduce a warmer risk by themselves as southeast ridge is allowed to flex more, having the AO/NAO stay negative is key and could keep a wintrier pattern going instead of warmer cutters that only benefit MSP and points north/northwest. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Another interesting thing i notice about anomalies in ensembles and weeklies is that 850mb temps are colder relative to avg than 2m temps. Maybe a sign that lower diurnal ranges (& hopefully unsettled weather) will continue as it turns colder? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Another interesting thing i notice about anomalies in ensembles and weeklies is that 850mb temps are colder relative to avg than 2m temps. Maybe a sign that lower diurnal ranges (& hopefully unsettled weather) will continue as it turns colder? What I’ve noticed is that 2M temps on the models in the long range in the cold season are generally way too warm during cold patterns for whatever reason. They seem to do better with 850 temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 hours ago, dmc76 said: Cutters. Difficult to get cutters when you have a strong block over the Davis Strait. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Temp anomalies at this junction are just a dart board toss and we can still get snow in a warmer pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Another interesting thing i notice about anomalies in ensembles and weeklies is that 850mb temps are colder relative to avg than 2m temps. Maybe a sign that lower diurnal ranges (& hopefully unsettled weather) will continue as it turns colder?The key is getting extensive snow cover down across the region, that can help modulate a pattern with some milder risk. Re. your question, it's possible to be related to a smaller diurnal range. The 850 mb anomalies are probably more relevant, especially if we can get solid snow cover down. And those anomalies even in the milder stretch shown in first half of Feb are not that far above normal, so you can easily still snow in that, as[mention=55]Stebo[/mention] mentioned above. I tend to look at the 500 mb pattern before then 850 mb temperature anomalies and don't usually look at the 2m because if I'm not mistaken those are a lower skilled parameter in weekly and seasonal forecasts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The key is getting extensive snow cover down across the region, that can help modulate a pattern with some milder risk. Re. your question, it's possible to be related to a smaller diurnal range. The 850 mb anomalies are probably more relevant, especially if we can get solid snow cover down. And those anomalies even in the milder stretch shown in first half of Feb are not that far above normal, so you can easily still snow in that, as@Stebo mentioned above. I tend to look at the 500 mb pattern before then 850 mb temperature anomalies and don't usually look at the 2m because if I'm not mistaken those are a lower skilled parameter in weekly and seasonal forecasts. I have always done the 500 250 850 surface style of model diagnostics as well, especially as you go longer in range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 zzzzzzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 06z GFS: 00z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 change is a foot. Right on cue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 been reading that post since 2017 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: zzzzzzzzz The 00z Euro is honestly the most exciting pattern of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 still solid week of zzzzzz to go, been a real slog 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: still solid week of zzzzzz to go, been a real slog I'll take a dusting from a clipper every other day dude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Actually quite excited about this 5 day stretch coming up. It will look and feel like winter for the first time in ages. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 ^ agreed. not since last april. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 The next week looks to have "unsettled weather" but I am still looking the last week of January for the best hit of Winter of the season so far, or at least since Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 The next four or so days do seem to be quite wintery around here, but I'm really counting the hours until a stronger signal emerges in the medium range. There's definitely a few points of interest, but... We wait, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 12z GFS: 12z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 looks like Alabama might get some snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Cold is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 46 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Cold is coming Hopefully we at least get “some” snow with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 RC delivers the goods in the PM LOT longterm AFD today. Good read. Hope is alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I think we can all agree...at least we have things to track. What a stinker of stretch the past month has been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 hours ago, madwx said: looks like Alabama might get some snow We're so close to seeing New Orleans on those maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 18z GFS casually delivers the greatest snowstorm in SE Nebraska history at day 8-9. Including 2 ft in 6 hours on the clown Kuchera maps (hr 222), with 3.5+ ft totals. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 hours ago, mimillman said: I think we can all agree...at least we have things to track. What a stinker of stretch the past month has been. 13 days. large part of LOT under a WWA on New Years Day. And truth be, the mid range forecast of a 2 week stretch of dullsville was spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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