mimillman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 At least there was no weird sex reference this time 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 37 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: You started it. Pretty clear we are moving into the coldest part, in terms of upstream support, of this winter, but its a "La Nina West". Weak northern jet and zonal flow. East/Eurasia got the good stuff this winter unlike past La Nina west's. My guess we will be pushing into the end of the month and those La Nina west's love to push torches in February at some point..........tick tick tick tick. This is gibberish. With ridging into AK yielding a Siberian connection (dislodging cold air) and strong -NAO blocking near/over Greenland, an all out torch is highly unlikely ala 2012. Low frequency (ENSO) signal is not the be all/end all. Hell, south/central Texas got a substantial snow event yesterday, that doesn't typically happen in a La Nina year given the suppressed sub-tropical jet. Edit: I should've expanded my post yesterday to mention late January as well, since that looks to be when we will see more of a transition. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 You started it. one day...one day, maybe you’ll finally be right with something.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Angrysummons said: You started it. lol classic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, mimillman said: At least there was no weird sex reference this time Spoke too soon 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Look bozo, asking us not to fanboy over fantasy modeling is like asking us not to be weather hobbyists. Sure, a lot of times the stuff is wrong, but this wouldn't be much of a hobby if we only follow stuff within NAM range. It's one thing if someone pulls up and starts unloading 300 hour+ GFS screenshots, but RC is literally a professional meteorologist so you have absolutely no leg to stand on telling him not to discuss 10-day forecasts in the most accurate, science based manner seen on this forum. You are the ball and chain around this forum's ankles. Go be a drag somewhere else. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: low frequency enso phases tied to other indicators definitely can tell you alot. So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be. This board persistently humps modeling between 168-240 and that simply has gotten old. Trends don't die, they change with the pattern. Nobodys humping anything. People are discussing long range winter. Simply checking out the models in the long range does no harm. I think everyone knows to take them with a grain of salt. Check out the thread title. There's nothing else going on currently in the region so there's not much else to focus on. Its prob best if you stay out of the thread, and not scare away the people with actual knowledge 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 low frequency enso phases tied to other indicators definitely can tell you alot. So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be. This board persistently humps modeling between 168-240 and that simply has gotten old. Trends don't die, they change with the pattern.I shouldn't engage but I'll say this, this subforum shows a lot of restraint when it comes to medium range threats compared to other subforums and other forums in general. This is not just because of threats evaporating in the short range the past 2 winters and this winter sucking so far, it's something I've noticed over the years. All we're trying to do here is nail when the pattern will finally become more favorable for regular snow threats. It's not humping modeling, it's diagnosing the pattern and potential it has should the ensembles be on the right track. Most people who come in here to read want to learn something and also when we finally could get a good snow producer, not hear you gripe at others constantly and acting like you know it all. I've certainly been overly optimistic in the past, I love snow myself, and this winter, this long boring stretch sucks. But I'm trying to be realistic while also talking about how this could be a legit decent pattern we're heading into, no guarantees though like always when it comes to forecasting at longer ranges. Others are trying to do the same, and I kindly suggest you read more and post/bitch less. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 hours ago, Angrysummons said: Then the 00z changes again. Why you people get hyped on 168-240 evolution always is bizarre. You have really become quite insufferable. Nobody is locking anything in, and yes, 00z could look different, but we are waiting for things to get better and now it is sort of coming into range. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be.tth. what is the fascination with snow at all then, given it always melts in varying time anyhow. some areas in the southern plains are on track for one of their snowiest winters...so it means a lot in the end actually.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 53 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: low frequency enso phases tied to other indicators definitely can tell you alot. So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be. This board persistently humps modeling between 168-240 and that simply has gotten old. Trends don't die, they change with the pattern. Posting/discussing ensemble forecasts in that range is problematic how? That's what they're designed for. Also, you were the one that made a blanket statement about west-based La Ninas, not me. The point is that we haven't exactly been in a "typical" pattern of La Nina (or anything close to what you are claiming) recently. Ongoing -NAO argues against a torch, as does the potential for ridging over the EPAC/AK later in the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve23guy Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Since I’m horrid at figuring out models and stuff , can someone show me what models are saying for northern Illinois / southern Wisconsin this Thursday/ Friday .. I’m being told 3-5? Ehhhh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Noticing too on the teleconnections today that some are trending the East Pacific Oscillation to negative toward the latter portion of January (around the 20th). When combined with the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation being negative, things could get interesting as we trend deeper into January. Also to note, some of the forecast models do develop the ridge in Alaska as well during the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, steve23guy said: Since I’m horrid at figuring out models and stuff , can someone show me what models are saying for northern Illinois / southern Wisconsin this Thursday/ Friday .. I’m being told 3-5? Ehhhh? There's a model or two that is in that vicinity, but 3-5 is probably an optimistic appraisal of the situation right now. Here in Aurora, I'll be happy with a dusting. Edit: Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 28 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Here in Aurora, I'll be happy with a dusting. #winter20-21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 There's a model or two that is in that vicinity, but 3-5 is probably an optimistic appraisal of the situation right now. Here in Aurora, I'll be happy with a dusting. Edit: Correct me if I'm wrong.Dusting is probably a good expectation. Sometimes these upper lows can produce a period of decent snow if you get a well timed 700 mb wave, but that'll be a few days to sort out. The 12z Euro was more generous with the ULL snow, maybe that's what was cited for 3-5" prediction. That would be absolute high end, a couple inches would be pretty good fortune. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Had mentioned the improvements on the 12z EPS vs last night's EPS. This tweet has a good visualization of those favorable changes, with strong height increases near AK and near Greenland. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 NAM joins the Canadian with a few inches in N IL Thursday-Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 This is a cold stormy look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This is a cold stormy look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 p.s. it's still there on the 00Z run 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Euro weeklies is warm for late Jan into most of February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, dmc76 said: Euro weeklies is warm for late Jan into most of February Id rather not have a cool spring so a jump right into spring in march would be welcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Euro weeklies...hold my beer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Euro weeklies is warm for late Jan into most of February Gotta be careful just looking at the temperature anomalies on those weeklies. The mean 500 mb pattern and anomalies suggests that the western ridge will continue to retrograde to more of a Aleutian ridge common in La Nina but we should keep NAO blocking if the effects of the SSW make it to North America. A good poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO) continues to provide cold air delivery into the northern CONUS, as opposed to a strong lobe of the polar vortex over the entire AK domain (like 2012) which torched the CONUS all winter. While a -WPO/-PNA pattern does introduce a warmer risk by themselves as southeast ridge is allowed to flex more, having the AO/NAO stay negative is key and could keep a wintrier pattern going instead of warmer cutters that only benefit MSP and points north/northwest. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Gotta be careful just looking at the temperature anomalies on those weeklies. The mean 500 mb pattern and anomalies suggests that the western ridge will continue to retrograde to more of a Aleutian ridge common in La Nina but we should keep NAO blocking if the effects of the SSW make it to North America. A good poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO) continues to provide cold air delivery into the northern CONUS, as opposed to a strong lobe of the polar vortex over the entire AK domain (like 2012) which torched the CONUS all winter. While a -WPO/-PNA pattern does introduce a warmer risk by themselves as southeast ridge is allowed to flex more, having the AO/NAO stay negative is key and could keep a wintrier pattern going instead of warmer cutters that only benefit MSP and points north/northwest. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 36 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Id rather not have a cool spring so a jump right into spring in march would be welcome. I think the opposite happens. 40’s/50’s and 60’s April to almost memorial weekend. Even some flakes in early May! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 We have technically had a -NAO since late December. Hopefully it doesn't abandon us when we'll need it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: We have technically had a -NAO since late December. Hopefully it doesn't abandon us when we'll need it. If the Pac stays as it is, then hopefully it does abandon us. Make NE Illinois like the surface of the sun for all I care. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now