Hoosier Posted January 9, 2021 Author Share Posted January 9, 2021 Still relatively far out, but if we can get this kind of look for February, it would imply some things to track. Maybe a little bit of a living dangerously look though, especially the farther southeast you are in the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Definitely liking February potential Hoosier. I always joke with one of my good friends (who only like snow on Christmas). His birthday is February 26th and we almost always have snow on his birthday whereas Christmas is more of a 50/50 shot. Even though any long range map needs to be taken with an extreme grain of salt, another thing to remember is all reds and blues are not created equal. Think back to the model forecasts for early January. The maps were ablaze in reds, burgundies and browns. However it's npt at all torching during the day, it's just that the low temperatures are way above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The shitty pacific and modest -nao blocking have been battling it out all winter. When you don't have a true dominant signal, you get a winter like this. Its like when you having sex and your fighting on who's on top. and yeah, the PAC signal has won more than not its share of victories. K 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 12z Euro: 18z GFS: Bulk of the snow on those runs take place on the upcoming Martin Luther King Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/4/2021 at 1:04 AM, StormfanaticInd said: This is a heck of a set up. Given what happened in the Bearing sea a couple days ago there could be a big system between the 16th and the 21st if my calculations are correct Time period is starting to come into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 There's been decent run to run shifts which we should still see for a few days before specific details become more clear, though tonight's Euro and GEM bring in some snow for a decent chunk of the sub with the pattern change on Thursday-Friday timeframe. There's then some additional snow potential as the upper low pivots across the region and additional clipper type waves of energy move in behind it over the weekend. Overall ideas remain on track, starting out northwest flow and then possibly trending to more zonally oriented flow pattern and baroclinic zone for week 2. The ensembles are trending toward an increasingly negative PNA in the long range, possibly the La Nina forcing finally showing up. If the polar (AO/NAO) blocking remains sufficient, southeast ridging tendency of -PNA would remain more muted and could be good for an active wintry pattern into February. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: There's been decent run to run shifts which we should still see for a few days before specific details become more clear, though tonight's Euro and GEM bring in some snow for a decent chunk of the sub with the pattern change on Thursday-Friday timeframe. There's then some additional snow potential as the upper low pivots across the region and additional clipper type waves of energy move in behind it over the weekend. Overall ideas remain on track, starting out northwest flow and then possibly trending to more zonally oriented flow pattern and baroclinic zone for week 2. The ensembles are trending toward an increasingly negative PNA in the long range, possibly the La Nina forcing finally showing up. If the polar (AO/NAO) blocking remains sufficient, southeast ridging tendency of -PNA would remain more muted and could be good for an active wintry pattern into February. That negative pna combined with HLB kinda makes me a little concerned about significant icing events with overrunning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: About time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: That is a cold look, so I'm not trying to downplay it, but this isn't bitter cold for Indianapolis. The normal low for IND in late January -6° C or 21°. A -5° C anomaly produces a low of 12° F. Scrolling through week 2 of the GEFS, the cold dome just north of the border slowly intensifies, and cold anomalies slowly bleeds into the northern Plains and Midwest, while the heart of the cold remains trapped in southern Canada/along the border. As Ricky alluded to above, at least it does look like a michsnowfreak favorite layout with some clippers. At least it's something to look forward to rather 2 weeks of blahhh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: That is a cold look, so I'm not trying to downplay it, but this isn't bitter cold for Indianapolis. The normal low for IND in late January -6° C or 21°. A -5° C anomaly produces a low of 12° F. Scrolling through week 2 of the GEFS, the cold dome just north of the border slowly intensifies, and cold anomalies slowly bleeds into the northern Plains and Midwest, while the heart of the cold remains trapped in southern Canada/along the border. As Ricky alluded to above, at least it does look like a michsnowfreak favorite layout with some clippers. At least it's something to look forward to rather 2 weeks of blahhh. This is a totally theoretical statement....but for some snow weenies....let's say the month period from Jan 20 to Feb 20 ended up with a temp departure of -3° and snowfall at 75% of average. Many would say, "so much for a pattern change". Lets say it ended up at +1° with snowfall 150% of avg, they would say "awesome pattern change". A more wintry change seems near imminent, but in the end it will be the amount of active wintry weather that defines it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 And the Euro gets even more interesting with the Thursday wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 The GFS and Euro are on different planets Thursday. The GFS has all the energy focused on a strong low up in Canada. Meanwhile, the Euro has no low in Canada at all and has all the energy in the midwest. Other models are in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 I'mma need it to not snow on Thursday, k? I've got Wed-Friday off this week and I had planned some travel, but as a rule I don't drive when snow is falling unless absolutely necessary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: I'mma need it to not snow on Thursday, k? I've got Wed-Friday off this week and I had planned some travel, but as a rule I don't drive when snow is falling unless absolutely necessary. Try moving to Chicago. You’d be golden 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Spartman said: Delayed, delayed, delayed. Not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 For lack of a better term, February looks like it could offer the chance for a blockbuster or two for the Lakes as the North American longwave pattern retrogrades plus continuing high latitude blocking (albeit likely relaxed some) and a more Nina-like regime resumes. Should note that with this high latitude blocking comes some degree of suppression to the typical SE ridge, and less likelihood for storms to cut west of the sub-forum. Going to have to watch severe weather chances down south I'd imagine as well. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 9 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp. At the moment, the forecasts I'm seeing for Toronto only show us having daytime highs of minus 2 Celsius, or about 30F for the 20th-24th timeframe, which is pretty much average for this time of year and nothing spectacular. This could be on track to be among the warmest winters of the past 40 years around here. I suppose, given the ongoing pandemic, that might be somewhat of a blessing, but it would have been fun to track some wild temperature swings and big storms. Meanwhile, has anyone seen the weather over much of Eurasia? Moscow and Saint Petersburg may be seeing highs below zero Fahrenheit over the next couple of weeks, a stunning contrast to the non-winter they had last year. Northern China and the Korean peninsula have been much colder than average, as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 8 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp. At the moment, the forecasts I'm seeing for Toronto only show us having daytime highs of minus 2 Celsius, or about 30F for the 20th-24th timeframe, which is pretty much average for this time of year and nothing spectacular. This could be on track to be among the warmest winters of the past 40 years around here. I suppose, given the ongoing pandemic, that might be somewhat of a blessing, but it would have been fun to track some wild temperature swings and big storms. Meanwhile, has anyone seen the weather over much of Eurasia? Moscow and Saint Petersburg may be seeing highs below zero Fahrenheit over the next couple of weeks, a stunning contrast to the non-winter they had last year. Northern China and the Korean peninsula have been much colder than average, as well. This is the one year I think we needed a brutal winter keeps people home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 00Z GFS: 00z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 The year where Louisiana and Mississippi receive more snow than the lakes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 The changes on the 12z EPS vs the 00z are in a word, exciting. Not exaggerating in saying it's one of the better looks for spread the wealth I can recall seeing on that product. Spiking gradually retrograding ridging over the western half of AK and strong west based -NAO with a -PNA. Too bad that great look is not closer in, but trending better obviously preferred to the opposite. Let me know if anyone would like some pertinent images posted. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 yeah, we got this 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 37 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The changes on the 12z EPS vs the 00z are in a word, exciting. Not exaggerating in saying it's one of the better looks for spread the wealth I can recall seeing on that product. Spiking gradually retrograding ridging over the western half of AK and strong west based -NAO with a -PNA. Too bad that great look is not closer in, but trending better obviously preferred to the opposite. Let me know if anyone would like some pertinent images posted. Images are always welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Winter is dead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Images are always welcome!Here you go, 5-day average 500 mb height anomalies day 5-10, day 7.5-12.5, and day 10-15. Next plot is hour 270 500 mb heights and wind barbs. Then the 5-day average 850 mb anomalies from the same time steps as the 5-day avg 500 mb anomalies. Needless to say, active look with plenty of cold air available and the NAO assist. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Then the 00z changes again. Why you people get hyped on 168-240 evolution always is bizarre.Why you're constantly miserable on this thread and others always is bizarre. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: those La Nina west's love to push torches in February at some point..........tick tick tick tick. Sun angle is also slowly improving day-by-day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 There's being a pessimist and then there's being a jackass. Angrysummons falls firmly into the second camp, and that's the problem. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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