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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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Definitely liking February potential Hoosier. I always joke with one of my good friends (who only like snow on Christmas). His birthday is February 26th and we almost always have snow on his birthday whereas Christmas is more of a 50/50 shot.

 

Even though any long range map needs to be taken with an extreme grain of salt, another thing to remember is all reds and blues are not created equal. Think back to the model forecasts for early January. The maps were ablaze in reds, burgundies and browns. However it's npt at all torching during the day, it's just that the low temperatures are way above average.

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2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The shitty pacific and modest -nao blocking have been battling it out all winter. When you don't have a true dominant signal, you get a winter like this. Its like when you having sex and your fighting on who's on top. and yeah, the PAC signal has won more than not its share of victories.

K

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There's been decent run to run shifts which we should still see for a few days before specific details become more clear, though tonight's Euro and GEM bring in some snow for a decent chunk of the sub with the pattern change on Thursday-Friday timeframe. There's then some additional snow potential as the upper low pivots across the region and additional clipper type waves of energy move in behind it over the weekend.

 

Overall ideas remain on track, starting out northwest flow and then possibly trending to more zonally oriented flow pattern and baroclinic zone for week 2. The ensembles are trending toward an increasingly negative PNA in the long range, possibly the La Nina forcing finally showing up. If the polar (AO/NAO) blocking remains sufficient, southeast ridging tendency of -PNA would remain more muted and could be good for an active wintry pattern into February.

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

There's been decent run to run shifts which we should still see for a few days before specific details become more clear, though tonight's Euro and GEM bring in some snow for a decent chunk of the sub with the pattern change on Thursday-Friday timeframe. There's then some additional snow potential as the upper low pivots across the region and additional clipper type waves of energy move in behind it over the weekend.

 

Overall ideas remain on track, starting out northwest flow and then possibly trending to more zonally oriented flow pattern and baroclinic zone for week 2. The ensembles are trending toward an increasingly negative PNA in the long range, possibly the La Nina forcing finally showing up. If the polar (AO/NAO) blocking remains sufficient, southeast ridging tendency of -PNA would remain more muted and could be good for an active wintry pattern into February.

 

 

 

 

That negative pna combined with HLB kinda makes me a little concerned about significant icing events with overrunning 

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

:shiver:

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_62.png

That is a cold look, so I'm not trying to downplay it, but this isn't bitter cold for Indianapolis. The normal low for IND in late January -6° C or 21°. A -5° C anomaly produces a low of 12° F.

Scrolling through week 2 of the GEFS, the cold dome just north of the border slowly intensifies, and cold anomalies slowly bleeds into the northern Plains and Midwest, while the heart of the cold remains trapped in southern Canada/along the border. As Ricky alluded to above, at least it does look like a michsnowfreak favorite layout with some clippers.

At least it's something to look forward to rather 2 weeks of blahhh.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

That is a cold look, so I'm not trying to downplay it, but this isn't bitter cold for Indianapolis. The normal low for IND in late January -6° C or 21°. A -5° C anomaly produces a low of 12° F.

Scrolling through week 2 of the GEFS, the cold dome just north of the border slowly intensifies, and cold anomalies slowly bleeds into the northern Plains and Midwest, while the heart of the cold remains trapped in southern Canada/along the border. As Ricky alluded to above, at least it does look like a michsnowfreak favorite layout with some clippers.

At least it's something to look forward to rather 2 weeks of blahhh.

This is a totally theoretical statement....but for some snow weenies....let's say the month period from Jan 20 to Feb 20 ended up with a temp departure of -3° and snowfall at 75% of average. Many would say, "so much for a pattern change". Lets say it ended up at +1° with snowfall 150% of avg, they would say "awesome pattern change". A more wintry change seems near imminent, but in the end it will be the amount of active wintry weather that defines it.

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For lack of a better term, February looks like it could offer the chance for a blockbuster or two for the Lakes as the North American longwave pattern retrogrades plus continuing high latitude blocking (albeit likely relaxed some) and a more Nina-like regime resumes. Should note that with this high latitude blocking comes some degree of suppression to the typical SE ridge, and less likelihood for storms to cut west of the sub-forum.

Going to have to watch severe weather chances down south I'd imagine as well.

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9 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

:shiver:

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_62.png

I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp. At the moment, the forecasts I'm seeing for Toronto only show us having daytime highs of minus 2 Celsius, or about 30F for the 20th-24th timeframe, which is pretty much average for this time of year and nothing spectacular. This could be on track to be among the warmest winters of the past 40 years around here. I suppose, given the ongoing pandemic, that might be somewhat of a blessing, but it would have been fun to track some wild temperature swings and big storms.

 

Meanwhile, has anyone seen the weather over much of Eurasia? Moscow and Saint Petersburg may be seeing highs below zero Fahrenheit over the next couple of weeks, a stunning contrast to the non-winter they had last year. Northern China and the Korean peninsula have been much colder than average, as well.

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8 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp. At the moment, the forecasts I'm seeing for Toronto only show us having daytime highs of minus 2 Celsius, or about 30F for the 20th-24th timeframe, which is pretty much average for this time of year and nothing spectacular. This could be on track to be among the warmest winters of the past 40 years around here. I suppose, given the ongoing pandemic, that might be somewhat of a blessing, but it would have been fun to track some wild temperature swings and big storms.

 

Meanwhile, has anyone seen the weather over much of Eurasia? Moscow and Saint Petersburg may be seeing highs below zero Fahrenheit over the next couple of weeks, a stunning contrast to the non-winter they had last year. Northern China and the Korean peninsula have been much colder than average, as well.

This is the one year I think we needed a brutal winter keeps people home. 

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The changes on the 12z EPS vs the 00z are in a word, exciting. Not exaggerating in saying it's one of the better looks for spread the wealth I can recall seeing on that product. Spiking gradually retrograding ridging over the western half of AK and strong west based -NAO with a -PNA. Too bad that great look is not closer in, but trending better obviously preferred to the opposite. Let me know if anyone would like some pertinent images posted.

 

 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The changes on the 12z EPS vs the 00z are in a word, exciting. Not exaggerating in saying it's one of the better looks for spread the wealth I can recall seeing on that product. Spiking gradually retrograding ridging over the western half of AK and strong west based -NAO with a -PNA. Too bad that great look is not closer in, but trending better obviously preferred to the opposite. Let me know if anyone would like some pertinent images posted.

 

 

 

 

Images are always welcome!

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Images are always welcome!

Here you go, 5-day average 500 mb height anomalies day 5-10, day 7.5-12.5, and day 10-15. Next plot is hour 270 500 mb heights and wind barbs. Then the 5-day average 850 mb anomalies from the same time steps as the 5-day avg 500 mb anomalies. Needless to say, active look with plenty of cold air available and the NAO assist. 4ee8a3170f0794103ba10f01cc28951f.jpg&key=32faa6f46bf48b6afae2da8f6bb7f23031ee850783faffae8704ade125b424ff5dbf5c1f5982ed61d19fdb27e2d4ab47.jpg&key=50ba3ccc06f0fa52069bfe612976079afe181c0a5cd77286467dc473b59d982abe39974d26d15b7c85c94c61246c0021.jpg&key=74369653229a029eb792b2512b1046e1af24df40d2a9f7c9e174b221413676071e8e9aaaa2643b9a2e21fb4679ae2709.jpg&key=3d0d7176e2bbb21546e10a26db232b2d510e218da6b9952baf164d5c7b8e3aa827e9dfb2238d3f11eb33d11b69b59bdc.jpg&key=efb56d32e048e6e195fe498f5a9b3d36f7d75775f7fc1c6e9f5d369333cc9eabaa3e81098bd87864be25df67a82538c1.jpg&key=ccd1ead853e866d5e4744e04cbd5e3633fc8bd4153e1414010ec935b31a75a47e0220f94b9efe896818abab1a4472cf8.jpg&key=b9ffa2a40b051a435a964549f16cf7364ef0ef09d26afc5828817e521e875c60

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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