Snowstorms Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I initially was thinking that December was where it was at for ninas, but really its all over the board. strong ninas are strong signs for lots of December snow, but maybe everything is pushed back? because extended ensembles show cold really building in Canada towards Christmas. ninas also are usually a torch October, and this year was cool. I strongly disagree with that last statement about shrinking winters. if anything we have been seeing early and later snows, though I'm not talking Toronto, I'm talking here. any uptick in temp has been matched by an uptick in snow, and the old adage about grandpas winters of his youth has been used for centuries but never right. The 1870s seem like the best match for brutally cold and snowy winters, though ironically there were a few torch winters thrown in even then. Outside of a few winters in the 1970s and the 2010s, and other scattered ones, you are either going to get an impressively cold winter or an impressively snowy one, rare to see both the same year in the southern Great Lakes. The cold October we saw this year was unusual for a Nina. In fact, the upcoming pattern looks more like a Nino than a Nina. When you have such a strong PV parked over Alaska to start December, it usually sticks around for most of the month. Not throwing in the towel for December, I'm just saying the pattern doesn't look great. Yes, I agree we do see earlier snows, in some cases, during November but that means nothing if we go multiple weeks during the heart of winter without any sustained cold/snow. Last winter is a perfect example. I don't like considering snow as a statistic to derive if a winter is warm/cold. Snow is just a byproduct, for lack of a better word, and you just need to be around the freezing mark for it to snow. For some cities just because it’s around the freezing mark, it doesn’t mean it’s below normal. In the last 30 years, we've seen exceptionally warm winters as compared to the preceding 30 years. For example, 1997-2000, 2001-02, 2005-06, etc. 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: since 2005-06, we have had 6 colder than avg winters, 1 exactly avg, and 8 warmer than avg. Im surprised 2008-09 wasn't a cold winter in Toronto. 2008-09 finished below average in Toronto but thanks to December and January. Feb/Mar 2009 were not cold by any means even for Detroit. In that regard 2009-10 and 2017-18 both finished near average to slightly below but again thanks to a couple cold stretches. It wasn't sustained which is my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: The cold October we saw this year was unusual for a Nina. In fact, the upcoming pattern looks more like a Nino than a Nina. When you have such a strong PV parked over Alaska to start December, it usually sticks around for most of the month. Not throwing in the towel for December, I'm just saying the pattern doesn't look great. Yes, I agree we do see earlier snows, in some cases, during November but that means nothing if we go multiple weeks during the heart of winter without any sustained cold/snow. Last winter is a perfect example. I don't like considering snow as a statistic to derive if a winter is warm/cold. Snow is just a byproduct, for lack of a better word, and you just need to be around the freezing mark for it to snow. For some cities just because it’s around the freezing mark, it doesn’t mean it’s below normal. In the last 30 years, we've seen exceptionally warm winters as compared to the preceding 30 years. For example, 1997-2000, 2001-02, 2005-06, etc. 2008-09 finished below average in Toronto but thanks to December and January. Feb/Mar 2009 were not cold by any means even for Detroit. In that regard 2009-10 and 2017-18 both finished near average to slightly below but again thanks to a couple cold stretches. It wasn't sustained which is my point. Sustained has always seemed uncommon. I mean most winters either see the cold or mild dominate, but its rare for anything to truly be sustained. I definitely agree that snow is not a way to determine if a winter is cold or mild...and thats why I brought up the rarity of a winter that is both simultaneously abnormally cold AND snowy. For instance, the winter of 1977-78 from a snowfall standpoint essentially died after the Jan 26 blizzard, which is only mid winter...but I don't think anyone would not call that a "cold, snowy winter". That does give me an idea though...I do want to look up later how many winters saw all 3 months finish warmer or colder than avg. btw if anyone is interested, here is a list of nina winters since 1950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Hopefully we'll have a December to remember, and not a December to dismember. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Hopefully we'll have a December to remember, and not a December to dismember. Not looking great but if the PV stays strong like last year we’ll still get shots of snow and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 16 hours ago, madwx said: Not looking great but if the PV stays strong like last year we’ll still get shots of snow and cold I suppose...but that's kind of a low bar. In summer, do we only expect "shots of warmth"? No...we expect it to be warm and summerlike throughout summer...not just "a few weeks of transient warmth". Seasons in seasons. DJF should be wintry simply because it's DJF...not because of whether a certain pattern exists. The coldest temp of the season so far at ORD is only 28...and it will probably stay that way through the end of November. The cruel joke of a November continues...and the joke is on us. Patience is wearing thin...things better change by 12/1 at the very latest. In good winters, there seems to be a persistent changing of the guard in mid-late November...where all signs of fall are erased and it actually feels like winter, with the very short days. I don't just mean one snowfall that melts in 2 days...I mean an abrupt change to a winter-like feel that has staying power. But right now, perpetual Fall continues...it's just not good. Hard to get into the holiday spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 17 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: I suppose...but that's kind of a low bar. In summer, do we only expect "shots of warmth"? No...we expect it to be warm and summerlike throughout summer...not just "a few weeks of transient warmth". Seasons in seasons. DJF should be wintry simply because it's DJF...not because of whether a certain pattern exists. The coldest temp of the season so far at ORD is only 28...and it will probably stay that way through the end of November. The cruel joke of a November continues...and the joke is on us. Patience is wearing thin...things better change by 12/1 at the very latest. In good winters, there seems to be a persistent changing of the guard in mid-late November...where all signs of fall are erased and it actually feels like winter, with the very short days. I don't just mean one snowfall that melts in 2 days...I mean an abrupt change to a winter-like feel that has staying power. But right now, perpetual Fall continues...it's just not good. Hard to get into the holiday spirit. man I was feeling disillusioned about the posting on this board but this Beavis post made me realize the real americanwx is back 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 maybe a front end thump next Tuesday before switching to rain. At least in Wisconsin and Minnesota. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 end of euro still interesting 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 If it stays consistent for a couple more runs, I'll bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 I like the ridge placement on the Euro out west, ideal for our region. Got a half ass block near Newfoundland too which could help funnel some cold air in. Interesting, nonetheless. When Alek is excited, you know it’s real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 I'll be excited for a new thread other than that Corona thread. Here's hoping for a storm thread mid week 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 The extended on the models is interesting. If we can get the phasing at the right time we are in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: The extended on the models is interesting. If we can get the phasing at the right time we are in business Also some blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Man! I enjoy the friendly banter in here so much better than the COVID thread. It's so toxic and divisive. Let's get a storm thread going!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 First winter in the Midwest/Indianapolis area. I am really, really excited for (hopefully) a ton of winter storms to follow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: end of euro still interesting When are you moving out to McHenry Co. when the rain/snow line sets up across Chicagostorms backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 5 hours ago, madwx said: man I was feeling disillusioned about the posting on this board but this Beavis post made me realize the real americanwx is back 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 5 hours ago, madwx said: man I was feeling disillusioned about the posting on this board but this Beavis post made me realize the real americanwx is back This is when the history of posters brings back the true essence of this board. I admittedly have limited knowledge of meteorology other than a love for following winter storms.But to observe and tweak the personalities on here is what makes it great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 hour ago, schoeppeya said: First winter in the Midwest/Indianapolis area. I am really, really excited for (hopefully) a ton of winter storms to follow! I don't know where you moved from, but if you're near I -70 and hoping for a parade of storms.... Only half kidding. Welcome to the subforum and around here is the land of the rain/snow line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: I don't know where you moved from, but if you're near I -70 and hoping for a parade of storms.... Only half kidding. Welcome to the subforum and around here is the land of the rain/snow line. From Oklahoma. The land of the rain/freezing rain line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 46 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: From Oklahoma. The land of the rain/freezing rain line. Oklahoma to Indiana? lateral move eh? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 I suppose...but that's kind of a low bar. In summer, do we only expect "shots of warmth"? No...we expect it to be warm and summerlike throughout summer...not just "a few weeks of transient warmth". Seasons in seasons. DJF should be wintry simply because it's DJF...not because of whether a certain pattern exists.This is how I feel about spring and severe weather. Not wasting 2/3 of it on moisture-scouring cold fronts, getting 2 or 3 "setups" that may or may not bust, then flipping right to summer doldrums. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 tomorrow looking interesting in southeast Michigan for some wet accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 12 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Just a heads up, with a moderate la nina in place id bet the house on a Rollercoaster. There will be nice wintry bouts and annoying thaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Canadian getting close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 17 hours ago, Cary67 said: When are you moving out to McHenry Co. when the rain/snow line sets up across Chicagostorms backyard I left McHenry Co as soon as I could, awful place. Good snow climo tho 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 If nothing else this pattern is very active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 We got a live one 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: tomorrow looking interesting in southeast Michigan for some wet accumulating snow. Looking pretty good here in Kitchener Ontario. Perfect timing too. Snow TV should start around noon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Any updates on the stratosphere vortex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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