Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WestMichigan]

52 minutes ago, Snownado said:

This says it all folks. Look at all that snow in the south compared to Indy.

I see the blank spot in Indiana so I feel your pain in that regard, but who on here really thinks that map will pan out?  I just don't see LA, MS, AL getting that much snow.

[IWXwx]

54 minutes ago, Snownado said:

This says it all folks. Look at all that snow in the south compared to Indy.

If you divide those numbers by three, you might be close. Anyway, I'm happy for them. It's nice to share the love. We'll get ours. Besides, it's really comical watching them try to deal with 3" of snow.

[A-L-E-K]

looks like a solid 7 days of near locked-in zzzzz before we can start chasing medium range threats again, pretty rough to have to toss that long of a period mid winter

[Pascy619]

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

looks like a solid 7 days of near locked-in zzzzz before we can start chasing medium range threats again, pretty rough to have to toss that long of a period mid winter

Hoping for a  back loaded winter like two years ago. February was nothing short of epic for us here. 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

If you divide those numbers by three, you might be close. Anyway, I'm happy for them. It's nice to share the love. We'll get ours. Besides, it's really comical watching them try to deal with 3" of snow.

Not that it can't come back to some degree on future model runs, but the southern snow is completely gone on the 12z GFS.

[michsnowfreak]

13 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Maybe there's something to that with these blocky stagnant patterns seemingly getting more frequent? But on the other hand could recency bias be at play? I only ask because my time out here is 10.5 years now and at least for me, these relatively lengthy dull stretches don't seem that much out of place.   

 

 

The legendary winter of 13-14 was very much out of the norm. Even the 2010-11 winter, my first out here, had a decent December, followed by a pretty quiet January until GHD I and then February really wasn't all that great out here after GHD I. I've wondered if the 2007-08 through 2010-11 winters and then 13-14 and to a lesser extent 14-15 coming not too long after that stretch helped drive the perception of how a winter should be because that's when these forums became popular. I've heard it mentioned many times here that the 90s overall weren't great and neither were the 80s.

 

The 2000s were pretty spotty too until the aforementioned stretch kicked off by 07-08. You had epic months like December '00 followed by long doldrums. You had good months like January '05 and February '07 following very long mild stretches and outright bad winters like 01-02 and 03-04 and much of 05-06. Don't get me wrong, I became passionate about the weather because of east coast snowstorms and badly want us to have a major region wide event this winter. But I really think our climo owes to having at least one or two lengthy disappointing stretches a winter even in solid winters.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Boring stretches tend to happen in most winters. They can be frustrating as heck but You know they aren't going to last forever. The Winters that you point out from 2007 to 2015 were incredible and not the norm. Think of how long a Winter season is from start to finish and how many ebbs and flows it has, that's why it kills me when people having a slow start act like it's not gonna snow at their location. Just not how the weather works. You commented earlier that you've been sledding, im jealous. My brother lives on the lakeshore in Chicago and he says he has less than an inch, but obviously you guys in the suburbs have a few inches at least.  We had several snow systems in the eastern part of the sub when the weather pattern was active and you guys missed out, now you guys got some Winter gold ahead of a boring and stagnant. There is no snow on the ground in Detroit (14.5"), Cleveland (24.3") or Pittsburgh (28.3"). But the ground haw been white for a week in Chicago (5.2") in Milwaukee (8.2").

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Snownado said:

This says it all folks. Look at all that snow in the south compared to Indy.

The 384 hr gfs. You're right, this says it all.

[RCNYILWX]

looks like a solid 7 days of near locked-in zzzzz before we can start chasing medium range threats again, pretty rough to have to toss that long of a period mid winter

Spot on, it's unfortunate to have the zzzzs that long but hopefully it ends up being worth the wait. Very good EPS and GEFS agreement in the western ridging retrograding off the west coast beyond January 1/15. The other noteworthy development in the past few full ens runs is amplified poleward ridging with the ridge axis up across the center of AK. 

 

 

Given the continued Arctic and North Atlantic blocking, that strengthening -EPO signal ups the ante for very cold air to get involved in addition to the RNA (-PNA) due to the retrograding western ridge supporting a more active look. Prior to the -PNA (if the ens are on the right track) we could start to see more clippers materialize and the lake effect belts should take off.

 

The good news is that the ensembles haven't backed off at all on a more favorable look for the subforum. The bad news is we still have this long boring stretch to get through.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[McHenrySnow]

3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Spot on, it's unfortunate to have the zzzzs that long but hopefully it ends up being worth the wait. Very good EPS and GEFS agreement in the western ridging retrograding off the west coast beyond January 1/15. The other noteworthy development in the past few full ens runs is amplified poleward ridging with the ridge axis up across the center of AK. 

 

 

Given the continued Arctic and North Atlantic blocking, that strengthening -EPO signal ups the ante for very cold air to get involved in addition to the RNA (-PNA) due to the retrograding western ridge supporting a more active look. Prior to the -PNA (if the ens are on the right track) we could start to see more clippers materialize and the lake effect belts should take off.

 

The good news is that the ensembles haven't backed off at all on a more favorable look for the subforum. The bad news is we still have this long boring stretch to get through.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'd love some clippers. 

[Stevo6899]

51 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Boring stretches tend to happen in most winters. They can be frustrating as heck but You know they aren't going to last forever. The Winters that you point out from 2007 to 2015 were incredible and not the norm. Think of how long a Winter season is from start to finish and how many ebbs and flows it has, that's why it kills me when people having a slow start act like it's not gonna snow at their location. Just not how the weather works. You commented earlier that you've been sledding, im jealous. My brother lives on the lakeshore in Chicago and he says he has less than an inch, but obviously you guys in the suburbs have a few inches at least.  We had several snow systems in the eastern part of the sub when the weather pattern was active and you guys missed out, now you guys got some Winter gold ahead of a boring and stagnant. There is no snow on the ground in Detroit (14.5"), Cleveland (24.3") or Pittsburgh (28.3"). But the ground haw been white for a week in Chicago (5.2") in Milwaukee (8.2").

Its a what have you done for me lately winter weenie crew on here. One day you'll understand that. The past few winters and this winter, nothing lately. We have had no real organized systems affect Michigan. Just dusters from a few secondary mostly positive tiltled low pressures that NE, E ohio has cashed in on but thats about it. Its gonna be atleast mid jan before anyone east of iowa (small part of IL just cashed in recently), west of cleveland will see any kind of respectable snowstorm, and its okay for people to be frustrated because thats more than a bad start.....I didnt realize Pittsburgh has been a snow magnet so far this winter. Good for them. They are usually sandwiched in between noreasters and panhandle hookers, colorado lows, not getting big snows, just like detroit.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Its a what have you done for me lately winter weenie crew on here. One day you'll understand that. The past few winters and this winter, nothing lately. We have had no real organized systems affect Michigan. Just dusters from a few secondary mostly positive tiltled low pressures that NE, E ohio has cashed in on but thats about it. Its gonna be atleast mid jan before anyone east of iowa (small part of IL just cashed in recently), west of cleveland will see any kind of respectable snowstorm, and its okay for people to be frustrated because thats more than a bad start.....I didnt realize Pittsburgh has been a snow magnet so far this winter. Good for them. They are usually sandwiched in between noreasters and panhandle hookers, colorado lows, not getting big snows, just like detroit.

yes regardless of what our preference is with the weather, its always what have you done for me lately. Last winter actually had a few good snowstorms (Nov 11, Jan 18, Feb 26) but for the ice fishing/ snowcover lover it was a trainwreck. This year there has been localized good banding in some of our events (for me it was Dec 1 and Dec 25 but nothing widespread). I like the cold potential thats coming.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Spot on, it's unfortunate to have the zzzzs that long but hopefully it ends up being worth the wait. Very good EPS and GEFS agreement in the western ridging retrograding off the west coast beyond January 1/15. The other noteworthy development in the past few full ens runs is amplified poleward ridging with the ridge axis up across the center of AK. 

 

 

Given the continued Arctic and North Atlantic blocking, that strengthening -EPO signal ups the ante for very cold air to get involved in addition to the RNA (-PNA) due to the retrograding western ridge supporting a more active look. Prior to the -PNA (if the ens are on the right track) we could start to see more clippers materialize and the lake effect belts should take off.

 

The good news is that the ensembles haven't backed off at all on a more favorable look for the subforum. The bad news is we still have this long boring stretch to get through.

id love clippers but what would be interesting to me is if we could get a storm spin up with so much cold around. Talking like 1999 where heavy snow fell all over the place, in what we would normally think of as a warm sector. Snow buried areas well east of where the low tracked. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

id love clippers but what would be interesting to me is if we could get a storm spin up with so much cold around. Talking like 1999 where heavy snow fell all over the place, in what we would normally think of as a warm sector. Snow buried areas well east of where the low tracked. 

Toronto got 17" out of that January 2-3, 1999 storm.

[josh_4184]

7 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Spot on, it's unfortunate to have the zzzzs that long but hopefully it ends up being worth the wait. Very good EPS and GEFS agreement in the western ridging retrograding off the west coast beyond January 1/15. The other noteworthy development in the past few full ens runs is amplified poleward ridging with the ridge axis up across the center of AK. 

 

 

Given the continued Arctic and North Atlantic blocking, that strengthening -EPO signal ups the ante for very cold air to get involved in addition to the RNA (-PNA) due to the retrograding western ridge supporting a more active look. Prior to the -PNA (if the ens are on the right track) we could start to see more clippers materialize and the lake effect belts should take off.

 

The good news is that the ensembles haven't backed off at all on a more favorable look for the subforum. The bad news is we still have this long boring stretch to get through.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm holding you to this 

[Baum]

Z z z

[A-L-E-K]

ban^

 

[StormfanaticInd]

The cold is coming. Still watching the period between the 16th and the 21st

[StormfanaticInd]

[pondo1000]

Anyone see the latest with La Nina? Heard murmurs it was strengthening? 

[michsnowfreak]

id still like to give it a few more days of ensemble agreement but its really looking like this pattern will be legit. Below avg temps heading into the dead of winter. hopefully no one in the sub gets the dreaded bitter cold and bare ground combo.

[CoachLB]

Frozen mud sweet.

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Anyone see the latest with La Nina? Heard murmurs it was strengthening? 

Strong easterlies have dominated across the ENSO region primarily near the dateline and are expected to continue past mid-Jan which has driven the SOI to 2010-11 levels. So yes, for the moment it's expected to strengthen. Subsurface anomalies continue to remain cold. Wouldn't be surprised to see a second peak.

Thus far, the La Nina hasn't fully coupled with the atmosphere but there's growing evidence the ridge building across the west will slowly retrograde towards the Aleutians come February, which is more typical of a Nina. Global AAM has finally gone negative so we’ll see if that holds over the next few weeks. February is certainly going to be a strong gradient month with the La Nina fighting to take control of the pattern and impressive polar blocking. Feeling optimistic about February, it could be our best month.

[pondo1000]

16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Strong easterlies have dominated across the ENSO region primarily near the dateline and are expected to continue past mid-Jan which has driven the SOI to 2010-11 levels. So yes, for the moment it's expected to strengthen. Subsurface anomalies continue to remain cold. Wouldn't be surprised to see a second peak.

Thus far, the La Nina hasn't fully coupled with the atmosphere but there's growing evidence the ridge building across the west will slowly retrograde towards the Aleutians come February, which is more typical of a Nina. Global AAM has finally gone negative so we’ll see if that holds over the next few weeks. February is certainly going to be a strong gradient month with the La Nina fighting to take control of the pattern and impressive polar blocking. Feeling optimistic about February, it could be our best month.

Thank you!!!

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Strong easterlies have dominated across the ENSO region primarily near the dateline and are expected to continue past mid-Jan which has driven the SOI to 2010-11 levels. So yes, for the moment it's expected to strengthen. Subsurface anomalies continue to remain cold. Wouldn't be surprised to see a second peak.

Thus far, the La Nina hasn't fully coupled with the atmosphere but there's growing evidence the ridge building across the west will slowly retrograde towards the Aleutians come February, which is more typical of a Nina. Global AAM has finally gone negative so we’ll see if that holds over the next few weeks. February is certainly going to be a strong gradient month with the La Nina fighting to take control of the pattern and impressive polar blocking. Feeling optimistic about February, it could be our best month.

February has killed it the past 20 years, especially the last 10. Let's do it again!

[RCNYILWX]

Still looks like all systems go based on continued good run to run consistency in the ensembles. Starting to finally see within day 10 on the operational models signs of what we've discussing on here. See no reason to diverge from thinking that during mid to late next week, we should start to see a stream of clipper/hybrid type waves in the initially northwest flow pattern and the lake effect belts should really take off. The week after next should trend to quasi-zonal with plenty of cold air involved due to the ridge spike to north of AK setting up a steady cross polar flow connection and the -NAO helping to keep ridge spikes ahead of vigorous short waves in check.

 

As[mention=6644]Snowstorms[/mention] wrote, signs do point toward that retrograding ridge setting up a more classic Niña type look into February. Parts of the sub had an epic February in 2019 in a decidedly Nina like pattern (despite that being a weak Nino) without North Atlantic and Arctic blocking. I feel more optimistic too that the pattern can remain favorable for longer for more areas with a decent likelihood of the blocking lingering.

 

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

I'm sure this pattern will be the type where individual shortwave location will be a big time model struggle. Hopefully this extended zzz pattern is forgotten by February. 

[Spartman]

12z GFS:

[Baum]

It's a start.^

[Cary67]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm sure this pattern will be the type where individual shortwave location will be a big time model struggle. Hopefully this extended zzz pattern is forgotten by February. 

Its going to have to be quite a run from late January till St. Patrick's Day to resuscitate this winter from bad grades

[mimillman]

the 12z Euro is so exciting!