Spartman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Baum said: going to be a brutal back half of January. Rest up, if you love winter weather. Lot of model watching coming. Current Teleconnections: 12z GFS: 18z GFS: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 This is a heck of a set up. Given what happened in the Bearing sea a couple days ago there could be a big system between the 16th and the 21st if my calculations are correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The BSR and LRC are meteorology’s equivalent to voodoo dolls and dark magic 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, hlcater said: The BSR and LRC are meteorology’s equivalent to voodoo dolls and dark magic Its one of the best long range forecasting tools out there. Not perfect though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 On 1/4/2021 at 12:04 AM, StormfanaticInd said: This is a heck of a set up. Given what happened in the Bearing sea a couple days ago there could be a big system between the 16th and the 21st if my calculations are correct Great, just in time for my birthday (not that I have any plans or am going anywhere this year)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 33 minutes ago, Baum said: buckle up. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 ^ too soon. Rubber Band Watch in effect for back half of the month. Enjoy the down time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: This is a heck of a set up. Given what happened in the Bearing sea a couple days ago there could be a big system between the 16th and the 21st if my calculations are correct Every week for this epic storm gets pushed back. Last week was 10-15th. This week it’s the 15-21st. This is how you know you’re in a warm winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 hours ago, dmc76 said: Every week for this epic storm gets pushed back. Last week was 10-15th. This week it’s the 15-21st. This is how you know you’re in a warm winter Yep, I was enjoying the random 1-2" snowfalls. Luckily GTHA goes into this boring period with about 3-4" of snow on the ground. Ideally it holds off until late January and we get 4-6 weeks of cold shots and storminess and pattern change again in mid march with above seasonal temps. I dont even know the last time we had a warm second half of march and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 It doesn't look great through mid month but it also doesn't look like a torch because of the strong west based -NAO. Without it, it would be a full on torch. Pacific jet will remain active during this time with a tendency for systems to come underneath, though you can't rule out individual waves edging a bit north. One thing to keep in mind about the upcoming pattern is it should help keep a lot of the snow/glacier cover in place if you're into that.Mid month and beyond should have colder air involved as the EPO trends neutral to slightly negative (the ens means h5 looks more negative than the charts) and PNA also trends neutral to possibly slightly negative while maintaining -AO/-NAO. The pattern hasn't really gotten pushed back, week 1 into week 2 never looked great. I wouldn't rule out some snow for parts of the sub, but better chances should arrive toward and beyond 1/15 barring big changes from what we're seeing later in the ensemble runs. If we can get the slightly negative PNA the GEFS is advertising toward end of run, that would only help but even the EPS has the ridge axis far west enough that it doesn't scream CAD necessarily. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 ^ I'll take optimism everyday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 hours ago, dmc76 said: Every week for this epic storm gets pushed back. Last week was 10-15th. This week it’s the 15-21st. This is how you know you’re in a warm winter I didnt know we were talking an epic storm lol. Just a change toward more sustained winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said: Yep, I was enjoying the random 1-2" snowfalls. Luckily GTHA goes into this boring period with about 3-4" of snow on the ground. Ideally it holds off until late January and we get 4-6 weeks of cold shots and storminess and pattern change again in mid march with above seasonal temps. I dont even know the last time we had a warm second half of march and April. I was enjoying them too. My area did among the best locally in the Nov/Dec snows and now unfortunately the Jan 1-3 slopfest we did the worst. Our snow has melted and we go into boring stretch without snow on the ground. Will be very interesting to see where we all are and we look to be headed on Jan 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: It doesn't look great through mid month but it also doesn't look like a torch because of the strong west based -NAO. Without it, it would be a full on torch. Pacific jet will remain active during this time with a tendency for systems to come underneath, though you can't rule out individual waves edging a bit north. One thing to keep in mind about the upcoming pattern is it should help keep a lot of the snow/glacier cover in place if you're into that. Mid month and beyond should have colder air involved as the EPO trends neutral to slightly negative (the ens means h5 looks more negative than the charts) and PNA also trends neutral to possibly slightly negative while maintaining -AO/-NAO. The pattern hasn't really gotten pushed back, week 1 into week 2 never looked great. I wouldn't rule out some snow for parts of the sub, but better chances should arrive toward and beyond 1/15 barring big changes from what we're seeing later in the ensemble runs. If we can get the slightly negative PNA the GEFS is advertising toward end of run, that would only help but even the EPS has the ridge axis far west enough that it doesn't scream CAD necessarily. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Thanks as always for the input. It would be nice to get a pattern that's perfect for the entire lakes sub lol. It seems like those in the East are excited about the pattern which sometimes can mean a lot of misses for the Midwest, although the Eastern part of the sub can often cash in on stuff in an eastern pattern. Where's a bowling ball when you want one? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Thanks as always for the input. It would be nice to get a pattern that's perfect for the entire lakes sub lol. It seems like those in the East are excited about the pattern which sometimes can mean a lot of misses for the Midwest, although the Eastern part of the sub can often cash in on stuff in an eastern pattern. Where's a bowling ball when you want one? If that PNA ridge in the west can stay off the coast rather than poking into AB, we can see storms across our region. Otherwise the pattern is more favorable for the east coast given the strong west based -NAO. Would be nice if we had typical Nina like ridging towards AK and the Aleutians. Most of Western Canada continues to torch and that's never good for winter storms or sustained cold. But until Jan 15, a pretty boring stretch inbound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: If that PNA ridge in the west can stay off the coast rather than poking into AB, we can see storms across our region. Otherwise the pattern is more favorable for the east coast given the strong west based -NAO. Would be nice if we had typical Nina like ridging towards AK and the Aleutians. Most of Western Canada continues to torch and that's never good for winter storms or sustained cold. But until Jan 15, a pretty boring stretch inbound. Detroit & especially Toronto can cash in on snow in an east pattern, ive seen it many times before. And the entire sub can get clippers. But obviously sounds like we would want the ridge to stay off the coast so we all could see some storminess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Detroit & especially Toronto can cash in on snow in an east pattern, ive seen it many times before. And the entire sub can get clippers. But obviously sounds like we would want the ridge to stay off the coast so we all could see some storminess. You're right. There have been many instances where you and I have cashed in where the rest of the sub didn't. The upcoming pattern doesn't look favorable for clippers with a relatively weak polar jet. Need more Nina influence on the pattern. It's mixed between Nino and Nina right now. But one thing is for sure, there's potential for phased storms in the upcoming pattern. Hopefully we get a redux of a classic great lakes winter storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 8 hours ago, hlcater said: The BSR and LRC are meteorology’s equivalent to voodoo dolls and dark magic Anecdotally I'd say the Bering Sea Rule/concept has more merit, which would make sense since it's on a shorter time scale. The LRC seems too easy to go back and try to fit the narrative that you want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Anecdotally I'd say the Bering Sea Rule/concept has more merit, which would make sense since it's on a shorter time scale. The LRC seems too easy to go back and try to fit the narrative that you want. Yeah I always hear about the LRC a few times a winter which makes me think they just find a couple times it matches the pattern from ~45 days back and make it work. If it was a true match we could just map out the whole winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 trash for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The people in the south are going crazy. It would be nuts if Atlanta and Birmingham get more snow than Indy this winter, but i think that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Snownado said: The people in the south are going crazy. It would be nuts if Atlanta and Birmingham get more snow than Indy this winter, but i think that will happen. Pessimism is understandable with how things have been going, but I think you could add Atlanta, Birmingham and Dallas together and Indy will still come out on top by the time it's over. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Pessimism is understandable with how things have been going, but I think you could add Atlanta, Birmingham and Dallas together and Indy will still come out on top by the time it's over. There's talk of this being the most favorable winter weather pattern in 10 years across the south ! An epic, possibly once in a lifetime winter is in store down there. Why can't we have any fun up here ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Snownado said: There's talk of this being the most favorable winter weather pattern in 10 years across the south ! An epic, possibly once in a lifetime winter is in store down there. Why can't we have any fun up here ? What's an epic winter down there? 3 inches? 6 inches? I guess maybe the bar could be slightly higher for Dallas considering their geographic location. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I'm sure plenty of you disagree, and that's okay, but if it's not gonna snow up here, then it might as well snow down there. Spread the lovin' to our southern weenie brethren... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, Malacka11 said: I'm sure plenty of you disagree, and that's okay, but if it's not gonna snow up here, then it might as well snow down there. Spread the lovin' to our southern weenie brethren... I'm much less bitter when the south gets snow than the northeast, that's for darn sure. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: I'm much less bitter when the south gets snow than the northeast, that's for darn sure. Exactly. Storms that we in the Midwest and the northeast can't possibly appreciate would make someone's day down south. It's just so much more rare that if they get their once-a-winter opportunity, I'm not gonna bitch about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: I'm much less bitter when the south gets snow than the northeast, that's for darn sure. Im more bitter when the south gets snow since my family lives there and i don't want them to rub it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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