Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

44 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Does seem to be some model consensus for the Dec. 30th storm cutting NW of us. 

I meant locking in in terms of what areas get hit and what areas don't. if a storms missing us we don't pay as close attention, but for those getting hit by the storm location matters. 

[StormfanaticInd]

2 hours ago, MIstorm97 said:

Hate 2 c it

Thats just brutal 

[Hoosier]

That 10 day Euro snow map is almost too goofy to pan out like that.

[Hoosier]

57 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

And were we tracking the latest first 1” snow at ORD recently as well? If I recall, we managed to screw that up with about a week to go. 

That was 2012-13, and it did break the record.  It took until January 25 to get the first 1" calendar day snow.

[McHenrySnow]

white christmas baby 

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I meant locking in in terms of what areas get hit and what areas don't. if a storms missing us we don't pay as close attention, but for those getting hit by the storm location matters. 

Yeah seems to be a somewhat consistent track over central to east central IA. MSP been looking good for several runs on various models. Will see if that holds up.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

That 10 day Euro snow map is almost too goofy to pan out like that.

I was going to say that, but was afraid doing so would guarantee it verifying.

[luckyweather]

I was going to say that, but was afraid doing so would guarantee it verifying.

a Lake Superior sized and shaped donut hole

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzz

[RogueWaves]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Interesting. The extended cfs maps which are equivalent to giving a 3 year old a crayon, are known for their constant changing from run to run (hell you can see record warmth and record cold for a certain timeframe from run to run)...but I've noticed some real cold showing up towards late January and early February. This is the dead of winter so anomalous cold will be very wintry. 

If by wintry you mean more than just cold, that's not guaranteed. Especially with Chicago's history. There's another 98-99. Think of it as the evil twin of the more recent. While the EC from Florida on northeast "enjoyed" one the all-time historical (what's the acronym HECS?) blizzards in the nation's memory, Chicagoans dealt with frozen tundra.

From that other futility thread:

Quote

Hey beavis, thought you would like to know that Chicago came awfully close to having an 83 day sub 1" streak in 1898-99.  The only thing that interrupted was a 1" snow, on the nose, on January 17, 1899.  Had that not occurred, it would've run from December 1, 1898 through February 21, 1899.

Remains to be seen exactly which "98-99" analog this winter follows, but my hand is primed to move my $$ from the younger to the elder

[StormfanaticInd]

10 hours ago, MIstorm97 said:

Hate 2 c it

 

[RobertSul]

10 hours ago, MIstorm97 said:

Hate 2 c it

That’s like the macro, drawn-out version of being stuck in a subsidence band during a major snowstorm. 

[mimillman]

MSP MSP MSP MSP MSP MSP MSP MSP MSP MSP

MSP MSP MSP MSP MSP MSP MSP MSP MSP MSP

 

[Stebo]

On 12/24/2020 at 11:25 AM, RCNYILWX said:

Both winter 2009-10 and 2010-11 had deeply -NAOs, 09-10 pretty much wire to wire, and were good winters for Chicago. The blocking in 2011 eroded in time for GHD I. That's not a statement about how things may go here the next few weeks, but just a note to point out a -NAO can be good here.  

 

 

With respect to moving forward, the ensembles also show a +EPO look with the big NAO block (backed up by the forecast teleconnection indices), so that could help prevent it from being more torchy and *maybe* assist in keeping some systems farther south. The deep blocking may come too late to help us next week though.

 

 

 

 

 

East based -NAOs are great especially for the eastern Lakes. As long as the West based -NAO isn't off the charts it can be good for everyone as well. Too much and it suppression city.

[Spartman]

00z GFS (snowfall mainly following around the end of December):

 

00z Euro:

[StormfanaticInd]

This is interesting 

[mimillman]

This pattern couldn’t look more horrendous. Time to root for futility

[WestMichigan]

12 minutes ago, mimillman said:

This pattern couldn’t look more horrendous. Time to root for futility

Never, even a little snow is way better than futility. 

[Chicago Storm]

This pattern couldn’t look more horrendous. Time to root for futility

There will be no futility to root for after this upcoming week.

 

 

.

[mimillman]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

There will be no futility to root for after this upcoming week.

 

 

.

Idk, I’m always skeptical about these secondaries producing anything meaningful. Strung out GFS shunt east seems most likely to me

[mimillman]

5 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Never, even a little snow is way better than futility. 

If you can’t be the best, be the worst.

[Chicago Storm]

Idk, I’m always skeptical about these secondaries producing anything meaningful. Strung out GFS shunt east seems most likely to me

It’s not a secondary, it’s the main system on most guidance now. The initial wave ejection is turning into a glorified front/overrunning event now.


.

[A-L-E-K]

idk man, kinda looking forward to Jan 1 when we get regular mode joe back

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

There will be no futility to root for after this upcoming week.

 

 

.

You seem a little uncharacteristically optimistic for this amount of lead time.  Please share some of your optimism.  Thanks.

[Chicago Storm]

idk man, kinda looking forward to Jan 1 when we get regular mode joe back

Picking up that 0.2” Thursday morning kind of killed off those vibes for now.


.

[mimillman]

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It’s not a secondary, it’s the main system on most guidance now. The initial wave ejection is turning into a glorified front/overrunning event now.


.

Euro not really buying that yet. Well see.

[Spartman]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

idk man, kinda looking forward to Jan 1 when we get regular mode joe back

While talking about January 1st, today's 18z GFS run says "Party like it's 1999." 

12z Euro on the other hand: 

Shortly after 2021 begins:

[mimillman]

Too many maps 

[RCNYILWX]

That pattern could produce snow events because of the assistance of the strong -NAO to modulate the +EPO some. It's certainly not a cold pattern. I'm not on the optimism train, just saying that's not a lock to be snowless like this month has been. The 850 mb positive anomalies are not obscene and the mean 850 mb 0C line is near or south of I-70. If we get a lower amplitude wave, could snow here with that.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Snowstorms]

34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

That pattern could produce snow events because of the assistance of the strong -NAO to modulate the +EPO some. It's certainly not a cold pattern. I'm not on the optimism train, just saying that's not a lock to be snowless like this month has been. The 850 mb positive anomalies are not obscene and the mean 850 mb 0C line is near or south of I-70. If we get a lower amplitude wave, could snow here with that.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I agree. It's not the greatest pattern ever but it has the potential to produce under the right circumstances. Also to add to what you said, we've got a somewhat active STJ as well. If we can have the storms digging a bit more, we can certainly see some decent storms. It's like a hybrid Nino/Nina pattern mix. On the Pacific side we see the Nina trying to fight and take control of the pattern with a flat NP ridge just north of Hawaii, whereas we have a strong Aleutian low near Alaska, a common Nino feature. Do you think the forecasted trade wind burst coming this week will allow the Nina to have greater influence on our pattern? Specifically in helping to build an Aleutian ridge to cool down Canada. There's other reasons to be optimistic about, one specifically being a potential SSW by mid January.