Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[ChiTownSnow]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

Been a -AO during most of this Decembers suck fest.  Not sure tanking -NAO is great for anything but clippers and  watching storms for the lower OV and Noreasters. Could be good for downstate IL and Indiana though.

At this point I'll just take colder temps so I can at least freeze over the backyard rink

[McHenrySnow]

wow, can't even get a front end inch or two on the gfs now

it's honestly mind-boggling how terrible this winter has been thus far in northern illinois 

[mimillman]

21 hours ago, mimillman said:

I mean, why fight the multi-year trend.

One day, we will have the last laugh as MSP gets missed to the south year after year.

Bump

[RCNYILWX]

Been a -AO during most of this Decembers suck fest.  Not sure tanking -NAO is great for anything but clippers and  watching storms for the lower OV and Noreasters. Could be good for downstate IL and Indiana though.

Both winter 2009-10 and 2010-11 had deeply -NAOs, 09-10 pretty much wire to wire, and were good winters for Chicago. The blocking in 2011 eroded in time for GHD I. That's not a statement about how things may go here the next few weeks, but just a note to point out a -NAO can be good here.  

 

 

With respect to moving forward, the ensembles also show a +EPO look with the big NAO block (backed up by the forecast teleconnection indices), so that could help prevent it from being more torchy and *maybe* assist in keeping some systems farther south. The deep blocking may come too late to help us next week though.

 

 

 

 

 

[McHenrySnow]

13 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Both winter 2009-10 and 2010-11 had deeply -NAOs, 09-10 pretty much wire to wire, and were good winters for Chicago. The blocking in 2011 eroded in time for GHD I. That's not a statement about how things may go here the next few weeks, but just a note to point out a -NAO can be good here.  

 

 

With respect to moving forward, the ensembles also show a +EPO look with the big NAO block (backed up by the forecast teleconnection indices), so that could help prevent it from being more torchy and *maybe* assist in keeping some systems farther south. The deep blocking may come too late to help us next week though.

 

 

 

 

 

Becoming pretty clear that next week is another wasted week of winter here. 

[pondo1000]

1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said:

Becoming pretty clear that next week is another wasted week of winter here. 

Yup. Looks like the Pacific is in control. 

[Cary67]

15 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Both winter 2009-10 and 2010-11 had deeply -NAOs, 09-10 pretty much wire to wire, and were good winters for Chicago. The blocking in 2011 eroded in time for GHD I. That's not a statement about how things may go here the next few weeks, but just a note to point out a -NAO can be good here.  

 

 

With respect to moving forward, the ensembles also show a +EPO look with the big NAO block (backed up by the forecast teleconnection indices), so that could help prevent it from being more torchy and *maybe* assist in keeping some systems farther south. The deep blocking may come too late to help us next week though.

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting always thought deeply -NAOs usually had a trough position too far east of us

[Brian D]

A SSW event for the N Hemisphere is forecast to start sometime in Jan. This will have a big impact somewhere. My outlook for this winter (in the holiday forecast thread I made), I mention the colder weather, with some some milder temps mixed in for Jan, with what looks to be very cold weather for late Jan into Feb, with Feb looking pretty cold.

https://watchers.news/2020/12/23/major-sudden-stratospheric-warming-january-2021/

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, McHenrySnow said:

Becoming pretty clear that next week is another wasted week of winter here. 

May as well push for some futility records. But I am sure we will find a way to screw that up too. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, mimillman said:

Bump

MSP frequently was missed during some of the bigger winters of the lower Lakes last decade. it all ebbs and flows. MSP got 44" in 2007-08.

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

May as well push for some futility records. But I am sure we will find a way to screw that up too. 

if you are talking about seasonal futility for Chicago...the 3rd day of astronomical winter is wayyyyyyy too early to think of that. As in, 2+ months too early. If you are simply talking "least snow thru this date" thats another story. 

[mimillman]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

MSP frequently was missed during some of the bigger winters of the lower Lakes last decade. it all ebbs and flows. MSP got 44" in 2007-08.

I'm not trying to bring up winters from 15 years ago haha, just past couple years.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

Interesting always thought deeply -NAOs usually had a trough position too far east of us

I don't fully understand the NAO because its a lot more gray area than the east coast. At least for big storms. Some of our big storms are +NAO, some -NAO. but it would be nice to get into a classic -NAO clipper pattern  

[michsnowfreak]

44 minutes ago, Brian D said:

A SSW event for the N Hemisphere is forecast to start sometime in Jan. This will have a big impact somewhere. My outlook for this winter (in the holiday forecast thread I made), I mention the colder weather, with some some milder temps mixed in for Jan, with what looks to be very cold weather for late Jan into Feb, with Feb looking pretty cold.

https://watchers.news/2020/12/23/major-sudden-stratospheric-warming-january-2021/

Interesting. The extended cfs maps which are equivalent to giving a 3 year old a crayon, are known for their constant changing from run to run (hell you can see record warmth and record cold for a certain timeframe from run to run)...but I've noticed some real cold showing up towards late January and early February. This is the dead of winter so anomalous cold will be very wintry. 

[Chicago Storm]

if you are talking about seasonal futility for Chicago...the 3rd day of astronomical winter is wayyyyyyy too early to think of that. As in, 2+ months too early. If you are simply talking "least snow thru this date" thats another story. 

Astronomical winter makes no difference. If ORD is sitting under 1” of snow as we head into the new year, futility watch has full steam ahead.


.

[Chicago Storm]

Yup. Looks like the Pacific is in control. 

It is. Has been and will continue to be it appears.


.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Astronomical winter makes no difference. If ORD is sitting under 1” of snow as we head into the new year, futility watch has full steam ahead.


.

I suppose the longer they go without snow doesn't hurt to watch, but considering they can get snow for 4 more months, it'll be tough to do. The all time futility for Chicago is 9.8" in 1920-21.

[Hoosier]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

I suppose the longer they go without snow doesn't hurt to watch, but considering they can get snow for 4 more months, it'll be tough to do. The all time futility for Chicago is 9.8" in 1920-21.

Futility doesn't like it when you get too greedy and look way ahead.  That's why it's better to take it as it comes.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Astronomical winter makes no difference. If ORD is sitting under 1” of snow as we head into the new year, futility watch has full steam ahead.


.

I feel like we did something like this not terribly long ago.

Oh yeah.  We did.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49711-chicagos-epic-snow-drought/

[cyclone77]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Futility doesn't like it when you get too greedy and look way ahead.  That's why it's better to take it as it comes.

Because when things are this bad futility potential is the only glimmer of excitement lol.

[McHenrySnow]

The 12z Euro. lol

[iluvsnow]

For we in Illinois, Indiana and western Ohio...time to start a charter membership in the Midwest version of the "Ji" club. Hell, Knoxville get a ^&$king 2 feet plus!

 

[McHenrySnow]

sidenote: i HATE the nws radar setup now. HATE.

[MIstorm97]

Hate 2 c it

[zinski1990]

58 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

The 12z Euro. lol

It'll verify just like that too. Watch. Whenever we have hope or at least a glimmer of it a week out it goes away but east coast bombs and southern sliders always work out and lock in

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

It'll verify just like that too. Watch. Whenever we have hope or at least a glimmer of it a week out it goes away but east coast bombs and southern sliders always work out and lock in

nothing on long range models ever locks in anywhere lol

[zinski1990]

I know lol. Just exaggerating some of course but it seems like that sometimes. For us a million things have to line up perfectly for a storm

[Cary67]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

nothing on long range models ever locks in anywhere lol

Does seem to be some model consensus for the Dec. 30th storm cutting NW of us. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I feel like we did something like this not terribly long ago.

Oh yeah.  We did.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49711-chicagos-epic-snow-drought/

And were we tracking the latest first 1” snow at ORD recently as well? If I recall, we managed to screw that up with about a week to go. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Good to see I haven’t lost my optimistic demeanor and consistent “glass half full” outlook...