Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Stebo]

You want that west about 200 miles to be anything meaningful for this subforum outside of far eastern Ohio.

[mississaugasnow]

47 minutes ago, Stebo said:

You want that west about 200 miles to be anything meaningful for this subforum outside of far eastern Ohio.

While I enjoy snowstorms, for late November and December I can live with getting 1-2" every 4-5 days from streamers/clippers and temperatures consistently below freezing. Gives it a better Christmas feel haha. Come January-March though I agree that below average temperatures and 1-2" starts to lose the allure. 

[RobertSul]

3 hours ago, Stebo said:

You want that west about 200 miles to be anything meaningful for this subforum outside of far eastern Ohio.

I hope it changes in the next 384 hours. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Not a bad pattern on the 18z gfs run. Interesting times ahead Imo

Would go totally against what the CFS is advertising for the extended.

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[StormfanaticInd]

A little under 2 weeks until meteorological winter

[StormfanaticInd]

Just now, StormfanaticInd said:

A little under 2 weeks until meteorological winter

Subtle signs of -nao in the long range gefs

[StormfanaticInd]

20 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Subtle signs of -nao in the long range gefs

Eps

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Eps

That's a terrible pattern. PV parked over Alaska with a flat ridge just west of Hawaii. On top of that we got a massive trough over Greenland which is indicative of +AO/NAO. The cold over our region is transient at best driven largely by the +PNA across the PNW. Give's me 2011-12 vibes. 

[StormfanaticInd]

6 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

That's a terrible pattern. PV parked over Alaska with a flat ridge just west of Hawaii. On top of that we got a massive trough over Greenland which is indicative of +AO/NAO. The cold over our region is transient at best driven largely by the +PNA across the PNW. Give's me 2011-12 vibes. 

True but its a step in the right direction 

[Gino27]

Currently getting NAM'D. 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

43 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

Currently getting NAM'D. 

 

The setup is there for some snow

[hlcater]

Looking like a slow start to winter.

 

[Gino27]

14 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The setup is there for some snow

Eh... I will be genuinely surprised if anyone south of I-80 sees anything. 

[StormfanaticInd]

2 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

Eh... I will be genuinely surprised if anyone south of I-80 sees anything. 

With the pna that positive I think there is a chance for at least mood snow

[WaryWarren]

Torch it up baby!

To everything (burn, burn, burn)
There is a season (burn, burn, burn)

[Gino27]

12 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

With the pna that positive I think there is a chance for at least mood snow

Yeah possibly, followed by the torch of a lifetime.

[CheeselandSkies]

As a *not* winter-lover, I saw "record strong polar vortex" and freaked out a bit...then remembered a strong vortex is what keeps the cold bottled up to the north, right?

[michsnowfreak]

December looking mild for most of the country, though I'm sure it will contain some cold shots/snows in the Lakes and upper midwest. Deeper winter hopefully arriving around new years.

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

December looking mild for most of the country, though I'm sure it will contain some cold shots/snows in the Lakes and upper midwest. Deeper winter hopefully arriving around new years.

Hate when it transpires like that, but can't deny there are concerning signs.

[StormfanaticInd]

We are due for a cold snowy December. Keep the faith guys. 

[Cary67]

46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

December looking mild for most of the country, though I'm sure it will contain some cold shots/snows in the Lakes and upper midwest. Deeper winter hopefully arriving around new years.

Thought La Nina's promote early winter starts?Only to fade by mid January. This is going to be another winter where the cold will be forecast to come in another 20 days on a rolling basis.lol

[Snowstorms]

There's nothing I see that would suggest your average cold La Nina December this year. Both the GEFS/EPS are adamant on developing and maintaining the PV around Alaska to begin December. On top of that stratospheric temperatures are near record lows which is not good if you're hoping for a -AO/NAO.  One thing that is perplexing is the El Nino flavor to the upcoming pattern. Models have a somewhat active STJ and if we can keep getting some transient cold shots, i.e. Dec 2007, we can cash in. I don't think December will be as warm as Dec 2011, but a blend of Dec 2016, 2007 and 1988 sounds more realistic. Overall, I’m not impressed with the upcoming pattern. The cold air is locked up in the Arctic and Alaska while most of Canada bathes in warmth.

Over the last 10-15 years, our winter months have been shrinking. Most of our snow/cold has been occurring over a 3-6-week time frame. Last 4 winters are prime examples. 

[Cary67]

15 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

There's nothing I see that would suggest your average cold La Nina December this year. Both the GEFS/EPS are adamant on developing and maintaining the PV around Alaska to begin December. On top of that stratospheric temperatures are near record lows which is not good if you're hoping for a -AO/NAO.  One thing that is perplexing is the El Nino flavor to the upcoming pattern. Models have a somewhat active STJ and if we can keep getting some transient cold shots, i.e. Dec 2007, we can cash in. I don't think December will be as warm as Dec 2011, but a blend of Dec 2016, 2007 and 1988 sounds more realistic. Overall, I’m not impressed with the upcoming pattern. The cold air is locked up in the Arctic and Alaska while most of Canada bathes in warmth.

Over the last 10-15 years, our winter months have been shrinking. Most of our snow/cold has been occurring over a 3-6-week time frame. Last 4 winters are prime examples. 

Don't disagree. Really think winters are going to be characterized by 3-6 weeks of cold and snow and the rest meh. Every 1/10yrs will be bring sustained cold and snow but think last several yrs are what will be typical.

[Toronto4]

13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

There's nothing I see that would suggest your average cold La Nina December this year. Both the GEFS/EPS are adamant on developing and maintaining the PV around Alaska to begin December. On top of that stratospheric temperatures are near record lows which is not good if you're hoping for a -AO/NAO.  One thing that is perplexing is the El Nino flavor to the upcoming pattern. Models have a somewhat active STJ and if we can keep getting some transient cold shots, i.e. Dec 2007, we can cash in. I don't think December will be as warm as Dec 2011, but a blend of Dec 2016, 2007 and 1988 sounds more realistic. Overall, I’m not impressed with the upcoming pattern. The cold air is locked up in the Arctic and Alaska while most of Canada bathes in warmth.

Over the last 10-15 years, our winter months have been shrinking. Most of our snow/cold has been occurring over a 3-6-week time frame. Last 4 winters are prime examples. 

Dec 2016 was pretty decent snow-wise for our area, especially in the middle part. 
Dec 1988 was dry and had several brief cold shots. 
Dec 2007 was fantastic until Christmas.

Looks like the progression of this winter season is following 1975-76 and 2008-09. Both had mild starts to November, especially 1975. Both seasons had a cold/snowy stretch from mid-December to the end of January. And February for both years was mild with a lack of snow.

 

[Snowstorms]

45 minutes ago, Toronto4 said:

Dec 2016 was pretty decent snow-wise for our area, especially in the middle part. 
Dec 1988 was dry and had several brief cold shots. 
Dec 2007 was fantastic until Christmas.

Looks like the progression of this winter season is following 1975-76 and 2008-09. Both had mild starts to November, especially 1975. Both seasons had a cold/snowy stretch from mid-December to the end of January. And February for both years was mild with a lack of snow.

 

I agree we managed to finish above average with ~18" in December 2016. Even last December as warm as it was, we managed to finish near average. Other warm Decembers like 2014 we were able to squeeze in a surprise 7" storm. I mean it's possible to get some snow in an overall warm month if the transient cold shots can be timed right with a developing storm like we saw in Dec 2007. 1988-89 was dry overall and a crappy Nina winter. 

You're right. Nov 1975/2008 both featured a warm-up. In fact, 1975-76 and 2008-09 were in many ways alike overall. But I don't think this December will be anything like Dec 75 or Dec 08. Not until we start seeing some ridging around Alaska to create a cross polar flow as most of Western Canada looks to be exceptionally warm to start December.

[StormfanaticInd]

I'm surprised so many are throwing in the towel. Models can flip on a dime. 

[Snowstorms]

56 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Don't disagree. Really think winters are going to be characterized by 3-6 weeks of cold and snow and the rest meh. Every 1/10yrs will be bring sustained cold and snow but think last several yrs are what will be typical.

I agree since 2005-06 we've only had 3 actual cold winters, i.e. 2010-11, 2013-14 and 2014-15. 2006-07 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Jan to early Mar. 2008-09 was only cold from mid-Dec to early Feb. 2009-10 featured couple cold shots through DJF but nothing extraordinary. 2017-18 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Dec to early Feb. 2018-19 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Jan to early Mar. Cold winters are becoming increasingly rare it would seem. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Thought La Nina's promote early winter starts?Only to fade by mid January. This is going to be another winter where the cold will be forecast to come in another 20 days on a rolling basis.lol

 

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

There's nothing I see that would suggest your average cold La Nina December this year. Both the GEFS/EPS are adamant on developing and maintaining the PV around Alaska to begin December. On top of that stratospheric temperatures are near record lows which is not good if you're hoping for a -AO/NAO.  One thing that is perplexing is the El Nino flavor to the upcoming pattern. Models have a somewhat active STJ and if we can keep getting some transient cold shots, i.e. Dec 2007, we can cash in. I don't think December will be as warm as Dec 2011, but a blend of Dec 2016, 2007 and 1988 sounds more realistic. Overall, I’m not impressed with the upcoming pattern. The cold air is locked up in the Arctic and Alaska while most of Canada bathes in warmth.

Over the last 10-15 years, our winter months have been shrinking. Most of our snow/cold has been occurring over a 3-6-week time frame. Last 4 winters are prime examples. 

I initially was thinking that December was where it was at for ninas, but really its all over the board. strong ninas are strong signs for lots of December snow, but maybe everything is pushed back? because extended ensembles show cold really building in Canada towards Christmas. ninas also are usually a torch October, and this year was cool. 

 

I strongly disagree with that last statement about shrinking winters. if anything we have been seeing early and later snows, though I'm not talking Toronto, I'm talking here. any uptick in temp has been matched by an uptick in snow, and the old adage about grandpas winters of his youth has been used for centuries but never right. The 1870s seem like the best match for brutally cold and snowy winters, though ironically there were a few torch winters thrown in even then. Outside of a few winters in the 1970s and the 2010s, and other scattered ones, you are either going to get an impressively cold winter or an impressively snowy one, rare to see both the same year in the southern Great Lakes.

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree since 2005-06 we've only had 3 actual cold winters, i.e. 2010-11, 2013-14 and 2014-15. 2006-07 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Jan to early Mar. 2008-09 was only cold from mid-Dec to early Feb. 2009-10 featured couple cold shots through DJF but nothing extraordinary. 2017-18 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Dec to early Feb. 2018-19 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Jan to early Mar. Cold winters are becoming increasingly rare it would seem. 

since 2005-06, we have had 6 colder than avg winters, 1 exactly avg, and 8 warmer than avg. Im surprised 2008-09 wasn't a cold winter in Toronto. 

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm surprised so many are throwing in the towel. Models can flip on a dime. 

Definitely not throwing in the towel on winter, just noting that December is looking mild. Its actually ridiculous to throw in the towel when there are 5 months of snow to come.