Jim Martin Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 This may sound stupid... even with the AO and NAO being sharply negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: This may sound stupid... even with the AO and NAO being sharply negative? Even though the AO is negative (part of reason it will get cold behind the system next week), the blocking overall anywhere in not strong. The PNA is one of the stronger driving forces right now, in a very fast moving pattern. The NAO has been neutral, and what happens in the future is sort of unclear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2020 Author Share Posted December 20, 2020 If you live anywhere other than Bo and you like sustained/deep winter, better hope this still doesn't look like this in another 7-10 days from now 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If you live anywhere other than Bo and you like sustained/deep winter, better hope this still doesn't look like this in another 7-10 days from now CFS and Euro weeklies are overall not pretty either through the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If you live anywhere other than Bo and you like sustained/deep winter, better hope this still doesn't look like this in another 7-10 days from now Oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: If you live anywhere other than Bo and you like sustained/deep winter, better hope this still doesn't look like this in another 7-10 days from now February will be rockin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: If you live anywhere other than Bo and you like sustained/deep winter, better hope this still doesn't look like this in another 7-10 days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: If you live anywhere other than Bo and you like sustained/deep winter, better hope this still doesn't look like this in another 7-10 days from now With the way that is looking. Probably not Bo either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 might as well mega torch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 The subs snowiest month will be April. We all know it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 13 hours ago, Hoosier said: If you live anywhere other than Bo and you like sustained/deep winter, better hope this still doesn't look like this in another 7-10 days from now I have weatherbell and I don't get which version of cfs this is. it changes daily but hasn't looked nearly that warm recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Those coarse resolution CFS maps don't make any sense. Even if you account for background climate signals, there's no mid and upper pattern configuration that would torch the entire continent. If Alaska is torching that extreme, then there's gonna be a trough over at least the eastern half of North America. If a good chunk of the CONUS is torching, Alaska will be cold due to ++EPO from the TPV parking nearby, like in 2011-12. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 50 minutes ago, weatherbo said: The subs snowiest month will be April. We all know it. And it will all melt within 6 hours of falling Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 IDK, I'm not trying to be overly optimistic, but I don't think the most recent Euro weeklies and GEFS extended (I don't really look at the CFS and it's probably getting discontinued anyway at some point) look terrible for January. It appears the EPO will average positive but it doesn't look to be due to a black hole over Alaska but northeastern Pacific and northwestern North America troughing that's pretty common in La Nina's. The -NAO signal is still there to mute heights some in the east. If there's enough dateline ridging (-WPO) and a huge vortex doesn't set up over AK, that typically provides good cold air discharge that can bleed from western and central Canada into the northern Plains and northern Lakes. I see there being opportunities and probably averaging near to above normal temps but potential for some decent cold shots assuming cold does build into the Plains. Don't get me wrong, it's not screaming great pattern or anything, but it looks more serviceable than the dumpster fire that has been December, except for a few lucky spots. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2020 Author Share Posted December 20, 2020 3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Those coarse resolution CFS maps don't make any sense. Even if you account for background climate signals, there's no mid and upper pattern configuration that would torch the entire continent. If Alaska is torching that extreme, then there's gonna be a trough over at least the eastern half of North America. If a good chunk of the CONUS is torching, Alaska will be cold due to ++EPO from the TPV parking nearby, like in 2011-12. I agree it's a strange look. The only thing I could come up with is maybe some of the warm departures could be from lack of snowcover? The current snowcover situation is pretty pitiful in the northern tier and even up into parts of Canada. The problem with that theory though is that the CFS has January wetter than average in much of Canada. If that is correct, then they will be building up snow. As you know, getting precip is way more important than temperature departures for snow at those latitudes. Would point out that overall the coarse CFS looks on track to do a pretty darn good job with December. But you really want to get it to the last few days of the month for the higher predictive value, and right now it's only December 20. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Well at least it’s active in the medium range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 13 hours ago, Angrysummons said: The EPO is toast this winter. Its clearly a -AO winter which suggests no ssw either. As the season expands on, colder, more snowier pattern should descend over the plains, building snowpack. As the season progresses, troughs should become deeper and more amplified due to the blocking getting more traction with the 500mb pattern. Lets just say the pre-Christmas front is the beginning of this process. Interesting tension there as I was of the understanding that -AO is favorable for snow/cold in the central and eastern CONUS...but so is SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 There is solid potential for the end of this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: There is solid potential for the end of this year I think whatever there is of a storm track this year favors lower and mid OV and points east with little SER in this El Nino look. Eastern parts of subforum and EC and interior NE look to cash in most as they strengthen when they hit the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 This says it all 240 hr maps are meaningless but LOL at the Chicago donut whole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 zzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: zzzzzzz MEDIUM-LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO POINTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY CONTINUING BEYOND DAY 7. CASTRO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baum said: MEDIUM-LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO POINTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY CONTINUING BEYOND DAY 7. CASTRO I think Castro means starting beyond day 7 not continuing. It was spitting rain/snow last evening and had to remind myself that was actual precip falling from the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Cary67 said: I think Castro means starting beyond day 7 not continuing. actually hints at a small potential this weekend FWIW. And I'm guessing overall it's throwing ...t at a wall given our weather doldrums. But he does provide a speck of hope: ATTENTION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF 2020 THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL PACIFIC BORNE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING A RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THERE'S ACTUALLY PRETTY DECENT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THE GENERAL BIG PICTURE IDEA OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION, SO LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. GIVEN LIKELY MILDER STARTING POINT GOING INTO SUNDAY, COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTS BACK IN. STILL LOTS OF INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE AND TIME TO SORT OUT THIS PERIOD, BUT WE'LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. MEDIUM-LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO POINTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY CONTINUING BEYOND DAY 7. CASTRO 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Don’t look at the 12z Euro.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 There is certainly potential at the end of the month. Something like today's Euro would be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 30 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Based on Euro performance divide totals by 5 and move track either 300 miles NW or SE. Even if the system came together as shown the mesoscale NAM would eventually show overrunning snow cut way down and WAA winning out with mostly rain before being dry slotted in LOT on that track. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Cary67 said: Based on Euro performance divide totals by 5 and move track either 300 miles NW or SE Expect clouds and temps around freezing. Otherwise, prepare to be disappointed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Based on Euro performance divide totals by 5 and move track either 300 miles NW or SE Yeah WTH happened to the "King"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now