Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

DBQ hot streak on the euro, ride it

[mimillman]

23 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not gonna pretend that I'm optimistic for next week. It looks as usual too progressive on the operational modeling in that timeframe. The trend on the EPS last 2 runs to become much more northern stream dominant, which was the more likely outcome anyway, really diminishes the chances for anything to work out for us out here.

 

All I can say is that it's far enough out for changes to occur from the current look. The cold looks like it'll be legit not very modified Arctic air, so all we can do at this point is hope that somehow we can get some snow down for what looks like it could be a very cold Christmas period. CAD for Christmas would certainly be a nice cherry on top of 2020 lol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ricky, talk me off the ledge

[RCNYILWX]

Ricky, talk me off the ledge

It's not the big storm we all want, but the Euro showing a decent Pac hybrid clipper on the 22nd into the 23rd and then a follow up weaker wave into the morning of the 24th not far from here keeps some hope alive of getting snow cover down for Christmas. The ensembles also have a decent look toward the end of the run with a -EPO, -PNA, -NAO, -AO. May make for an active and not too mild stretch into January if that comes to fruition.

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[Stebo]

5 hours ago, mimillman said:

Ricky, talk me off the ledge

I will piggyback and say that most moderate La Nina's tend to have variable Decembers where as Jan/Feb tend to be money for the region. If there is something in those Decembers it is usually the last week of December. I know that people are getting antsy but I'd like to point out for example 10-11 DTW had 9.2" in December and ended with 69"+ and that December NYC got crushed with the Boxing Day storm and heavy snow in January but they were largely done by Feb 1st, where as most of this region saw most of their snow that month.

[Baum]

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I will piggyback and say that most moderate La Nina's tend to have variable Decembers where as Jan/Feb tend to be money for the region. If there is something in those Decembers it is usually the last week of December. I know that people are getting antsy but I'd like to point out for example 10-11 DTW had 9.2" in December and ended with 69"+ and that December NYC got crushed with the Boxing Day storm and heavy snow in January but they were largely done by Feb 1st, where as most of this region saw most of their snow that month.

a voice of reason.

[StormfanaticInd]

5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

It's not the big storm we all want, but the Euro showing a decent Pac hybrid clipper on the 22nd into the 23rd and then a follow up weaker wave into the morning of the 24th not far from here keeps some hope alive of getting snow cover down for Christmas. The ensembles also have a decent look toward the end of the run with a -EPO, -PNA, -NAO, -AO. May make for an active and not too mild stretch into January if that comes to fruition.

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[Stebo]

16 minutes ago, Baum said:

a voice of reason.

I'd be a bit more annoyed seeing this storm if it was a Nino, but I know ours is coming.

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

I'd be a bit more annoyed seeing this storm if it was a Nino, but I know ours is coming.

Or it never comes and ends up being a 1988-89 or 1999-2000 redux. 

[Stebo]

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Or it never comes and ends up being a 1988-89 or 1999-2000 redux. 

99-00 was a second year Nina, and 88-89 was coming off one of the biggest droughts of all time.

[mimillman]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

I'd be a bit more annoyed seeing this storm if it was a Nino, but I know ours is coming.

I hope so. Honestly, I would kill for a month with 9.2" to be real...

[SchaumburgStormer]

00z gfs continues the ****ing train wreck 

[chuckster2012]

20 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

00z gfs continues the ****ing train wreck 

Gives me an inch or two on the backside but I'm not counting on anything...

[cyclone77]

New Euro continues to look bleak for the western half of the sub through late Dec.  Luckily March and April will make up for the no-show December per usual lol.

 

[A-L-E-K]

Bad and getting worse

[Baum]

our day is coming

[Cary67]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Bad and getting worse 

A clipper miss to the north and the rinse repeat El Nino track providing winter from Detroit and Central Ohio and pts east through the end of the month. Outside of the 2 day rainer giving us all our December precip its been warm and dry since late October.

[A-L-E-K]

the extreme dryness over CA and into the mountain west is never a good look, they have a real problem brewing out there

 

[Snowstorms]

11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

the extreme dryness over CA and into the mountain west is never a good look, they have a real problem brewing out there

 

It's been that way for years. Sucks

[RogueWaves]

14 hours ago, Stebo said:

I will piggyback and say that most moderate La Nina's tend to have variable Decembers where as Jan/Feb tend to be money for the region. If there is something in those Decembers it is usually the last week of December. I know that people are getting antsy but I'd like to point out for example 10-11 DTW had 9.2" in December and ended with 69"+ and that December NYC got crushed with the Boxing Day storm and heavy snow in January but they were largely done by Feb 1st, where as most of this region saw most of their snow that month.

This is unfortunately a Modoki Nina, and just as Modoki Nino's leave the door cracked for us to make out better than traditional Nino's, the Modoki Nina is less favorable state then the traditional Nina and leaves the door cracked for disappointment. Acting like a Nino so far, and nothing looks too eager to change. I'll be glad if you end up correct ofc. We'll see. The remote viewing of other region's storms does nothing for me personally, and the more awesome it is for them, the more depressing it is for our own sad state of affairs. Keep in mind, you've seen like 5X the snow many of us have. 

[madwx]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

the extreme dryness over CA and into the mountain west is never a good look, they have a real problem brewing out there

 

can't wait for the mega west coast ridge to assert itself all of next year.  Maybe they'll get a Nino transition next summer to help them out.

[Pascy619]

Don't lose faith in the strom for next week. All 3 models had the snow last week hitting MN before quickly shifting it into southern WI. Long ways to go. 

[A-L-E-K]

13 minutes ago, WI_SNOWSTORM said:

Don't lose faith in the strom for next week. All 3 models had the snow last week hitting MN before quickly shifting it into southern WI. Long ways to go. 

It's still D5 before the wave is on the west coast, so obv time for improvement but a wave into WA/OR isn't gonna cut it, we need something digging further into CA otherwise I don't see how h5 heights or timing are gonna work. Given how the pacific has played out, I'd definitely ride the guidance that keeps things northern stream dominated and shear out the southern stream cutoff.

 

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, Stebo said:

I'd be a bit more annoyed seeing this storm if it was a Nino, but I know ours is coming.

I agree. We have sort of lucked out in SE MI with 3 snowfalls so far, and there was a nice snow in a narrow band in Madison this week...but its largely been a crappy start for the midwest. not to say there won't be screwzones, but this quiet will not continue in a nina in the Midwest all winter.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

This is unfortunately a Modoki Nina, and just as Modoki Nino's leave the door cracked for us to make out better than traditional Nino's, the Modoki Nina is less favorable state then the traditional Nina and leaves the door cracked for disappointment. Acting like a Nino so far, and nothing looks too eager to change. I'll be glad if you end up correct ofc. We'll see. The remote viewing of other region's storms does nothing for me personally, and the more awesome it is for them, the more depressing it is for our own sad state of affairs. Keep in mind, you've seen like 5X the snow many of us have. 

do you have a list of modoki ninas? I'm unfamiliar with which years. its mid December rogue, its not staying quiet for the entire winter.

[RCNYILWX]

I agree. We have sort of lucked out in SE MI with 3 snowfalls so far, and there was a nice snow in a narrow band in Madison this week...but its largely been a crappy start for the midwest. not to say there won't be screwzones, but this quiet will not continue in a nina in the Midwest all winter.

How was 95-96 in SE MI? That's the only recent low snowfall Nina that was colder than normal here. Even though Nina's don't have the reputation of big east coast winters, 95-96 is snowiest all time for NYC and 10-11 was on track to threaten that had it not stopped snowing in February.

The ensembles continue with a not terrible look to close out 2020. Not cold, but not a blowtorch, and near average heading into the coldest time of the winter isn't a bad thing for snow prospects.

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[Frog Town]

16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

How was 95-96 in SE MI? That's the only recent low snowfall Nina that was colder than normal here. Even though Nina's don't have the reputation of big east coast winters, 95-96 is snowiest all time for NYC and 10-11 was on track to threaten that had it not stopped snowing in February.

The ensembles continue with a not terrible look to close out 2020. Not cold, but not a blowtorch, and near average heading into the coldest time of the winter isn't a bad thing for snow prospects.

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That was my Freshman year in college at Siena Heights University and I remember it being cold, but not much snow.  I do recall having somewhat of a back loaded winter that year.  

[michsnowfreak]

41 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

How was 95-96 in SE MI? That's the only recent low snowfall Nina that was colder than normal here. Even though Nina's don't have the reputation of big east coast winters, 95-96 is snowiest all time for NYC and 10-11 was on track to threaten that had it not stopped snowing in February.

The ensembles continue with a not terrible look to close out 2020. Not cold, but not a blowtorch, and near average heading into the coldest time of the winter isn't a bad thing for snow prospects.

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95-96 was terrible for snow. it was by far and away the most screwzone winter I've ever witnessed. the screwzone was Chicago to Detroit corridor. DTW only saw 27.6" of snow despite a cold winter and record snow in the upper Midwest and east coast. Only good think was an unexpected March 20 blizzard (or else we could have had a 20" season). I was only 12 at the time, and we've more than made up for it since then (the joke about the SE MI Snowmagnet)...but if I ever see a repeat i won't be all positivity like everyone thinks I am lol.

 

Sounds good to me going into a new year. I'll take my chances with average temps in a nina!

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

GFS is taking baby steps towards a better Christmas Eve system

[Ottawa Blizzard]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

95-96 was terrible for snow. it was by far and away the most screwzone winter I've ever witnessed. the screwzone was Chicago to Detroit corridor. DTW only saw 27.6" of snow despite a cold winter and record snow in the upper Midwest and east coast. Only good think was an unexpected March 20 blizzard (or else we could have had a 20" season). I was only 12 at the time, and we've more than made up for it since then (the joke about the SE MI Snowmagnet)...but if I ever see a repeat i won't be all positivity like everyone thinks I am lol.

 

Sounds good to me going into a new year. I'll take my chances with average temps in a nina!

Sounds like 2009-2010 in Toronto

[Ottawa Blizzard]

4 hours ago, Frog Town said:

That was my Freshman year in college at Siena Heights University and I remember it being cold, but not much snow.  I do recall having somewhat of a back loaded winter that year.  

Interesting that was quite a good year for Toronto and points east. Ottawa got hit hard in November and December 1995, especially.