Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[MIstorm97]

2 hours ago, hlcater said:

Whew the long range is not looking particularly impressive at all. It is highly progressive which is nice, but it's flooded with a ton of mild air. Gonna have to hope that the storm signal Dec 23-24th materializes and is snow for most. 

Hope it's a big dog in Detroit and there's nothing in IC

[StormfanaticInd]

Not bad. I'll take the it. Lol

[mimillman]

Gotta say, I’ve lived in Chicago for 8 years now. Nothing here compares to east coast storms. Nothing. And the winters the past couple years here have been positively atrocious. 

[Malacka11]

16 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Gotta say, I’ve lived in Chicago for 8 years now. Nothing here compares to east coast storms. Nothing. And the winters the past couple years here have been positively atrocious. 

The last Chicago storm that was actually on that level of intensity was GHD I. That was nine years ago. Undoubtedly, even GHD II fails to really impress compared to a big coastal bomb. 

[Snowstorms]

17 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Gotta say, I’ve lived in Chicago for 8 years now. Nothing here compares to east coast storms. Nothing. And the winters the past couple years here have been positively atrocious. 

I agree completely. Boston got over 100" back in 2014-15 lol. Most of them big storms >15". They've been on a crazy run over the last 20 years which pales in comparison to some of our big winters i.e. 2007-08, 2008-09, 2013-14, etc. And yet despite all that, you should see some of the meltdowns in the New England forum lol. 

Yet were here pondering over storms like GHD 1, March 08 blizzard or Blizzard of 99 still. They've been exceeding seasonal averages with the exception of last year and 2011-12 for a long time. The day we start getting big blizzards like the Blizzard of 99 on a regular basis like some of these east coast folks, we shouldn't compare our petty 3-6" events. I'll take one of those big dogs every winter if that's all we get. And with our geographic location, we'll be able to retain that for a lot longer than them. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

0Z Suite so far in ok agreement about a potential system around Christmas

[Snowstorms]

7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

The last Chicago storm that was actually on that level of intensity was GHD I. That was nine years ago. Undoubtedly, even GHD II fails to really impress compared to a big coastal bomb. 

GHD 1 was a major bust for us. Glad Chicago was able to record over 20" with that. Off the top of my head, these are the only storms that I've personally experienced that are near the caliber of some of these east coast storms. And even then, they get over 20" sometimes 30" lol. 

Jan 28-29, 2019: 14" 

Feb 4-5, 2014: 13" 

Feb 7-8, 2013: 16" 

Jan 17-18, 2009: 12"

Mar 7-8, 2008: 12"

Feb 5-6, 2008: 14"

Dec 15-16, 2007: 14" 

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

The last Chicago storm that was actually on that level of intensity was GHD I. That was nine years ago. Undoubtedly, even GHD II fails to really impress compared to a big coastal bomb. 

I think even the east coast weenies would be impressed by GHD 2011 in Chicago.  Legit ridiculous conditions with 60-70 mph wind gusts, hail, thundersnow, etc.  

Unfortunately, getting GHD and then GHD junior in Chicago only 4 years later is not a typical frequency of such huge snows.

[Malacka11]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think even the east coast weenies would be impressed by GHD 2011 in Chicago.  Legit ridiculous conditions with 60-70 mph wind gusts, hail, thundersnow, etc.  

Unfortunately, getting GHD and then GHD junior in Chicago only 4 years later is not a typical frequency of such huge snows.

No no, GHD 2011 was definitely legit. GHD 2015 though, while still good, was really not of the same caliber. Don't get me wrong though, I loved it and would gladly lap up half that amount of snow. 

[Spartman]

2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Not bad. I'll take the it. Lol

Using the GFS 10:1 ratio:


Meanwhile on the 00z Euro:

 

[hlcater]

3 hours ago, MIstorm97 said:

Hope it's a big dog in Detroit and there's nothing in IC

How was the dry slot?

[RCNYILWX]

I think even the east coast weenies would be impressed by GHD 2011 in Chicago.  Legit ridiculous conditions with 60-70 mph wind gusts, hail, thundersnow, etc.  

Unfortunately, getting GHD and then GHD junior in Chicago only 4 years later is not a typical frequency of such huge snows.

Having experienced some of the greats in the east (1993 Superstorm, Blizzard of 1996, late February 2010 Snowicane to name a few) and GHD I, hands down GHD I was the most intense non mountain winter storm I've witnessed. Since living out here, I've missed the more recent east coast big dogs, but don't think any have surpassed GHD I for a widespread area in terms of wind and snow combo. The most comparable widespread intense wind/snow combo on the east coast to GHD I in recent history was in the same winter as that one, the December 26, 2010 "Boxing Day Snowstorm". Was legit paralyzing for the NYC area.

 

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[A-L-E-K]

Extended has been bad for a while now but woof, looking ugly 

[purduewx80]

8 hours ago, mimillman said:

Gotta say, I’ve lived in Chicago for 8 years now. Nothing here compares to east coast storms. Nothing. And the winters the past couple years here have been positively atrocious. 

I lived in NYC the last 3 winters, and they were all boring. Only 1 storm over 10”, just barely. To this day the best winter storms I’ve experienced were in WI and Chicago. 

[nwohweather]

Gotta say, I’ve lived in Chicago for 8 years now. Nothing here compares to east coast storms. Nothing. And the winters the past couple years here have been positively atrocious. 

And that’s probably best. With the amount of flat, open space and location away from the ocean that helps cold air stay longer, massive storms would shut down stuff for a week.

[dmc76]

The best Detroit can get was feb 2015 and people from Chicago call it JR GHD blizzard! 

[A-L-E-K]

90"+ season and 24"+ event or bust imo

[weatherbo]

8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

90"+ season and 24"+ event or bust imo

ok beavis

[BuffaloWeather]

Just no cold air anywhere. Need the Pacific to cooperate. Always a chance in January, but December is pretty much toast for arctic air. 

[Snowstorms]

Feb 2013 blizzard was legit for our region. I'm sure fellow Ontarian posters will attest to that. 10 straight hours of +SN with visibility around 0.2 miles. Widespread 12-18". 

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree completely. Boston got over 100" back in 2014-15 lol. Most of them big storms >15". They've been on a crazy run over the last 20 years which pales in comparison to some of our big winters i.e. 2007-08, 2008-09, 2013-14, etc. And yet despite all that, you should see some of the meltdowns in the New England forum lol. 

Yet were here pondering over storms like GHD 1, March 08 blizzard or Blizzard of 99 still. They've been exceeding seasonal averages with the exception of last year and 2011-12 for a long time. The day we start getting big blizzards like the Blizzard of 99 on a regular basis like some of these east coast folks, we shouldn't compare our petty 3-6" events. I'll take one of those big dogs every winter if that's all we get. And with our geographic location, we'll be able to retain that for a lot longer than them. 

Boston is wayyy better than NYC. A big dog is always better than anything else, there's no denying that. the very paltry snow amounts in between is why the east coast for a winter lover would suck from NYC south. Thats my take. Bostons run from late Jan to late Feb 2015 was unlike anything, even in a snowbelt. even that far north on the coast isn't all fun though...theyve also had 4 winters the last 20 years with 17" or less total snowfall. The past 2 winters COMBINED in Boston come out to an inch less than the yearly average, thats why you have New England meltdowns. every weenie regardless the climate is very "what have you done for me lately".

This is some impressive stuff right here...

Avg snowfall

Detroit 

1900-1999: 39.1"

2000-2020: 47.1"

 

Chicago 

1900-1999: 36.6"

2000-2020: 39.9"

 

New York City

1900-1999: 26.3"

2000-2020: 31.6"

 

Boston

1900-1999: 41.0"

2000-2020: 47.9"

[michsnowfreak]

59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just no cold air anywhere. Need the Pacific to cooperate. Always a chance in January, but December is pretty much toast for arctic air. 

Some of the cfs runs for January have had some insane cold. It's almost laughable. And that model tends to have a warm bias. It will be very interesting to see what transpires but id say the signal for cold is there.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

I’ll take more days of snowcover and true “beavis style” winter weather, over one or two big dogs a season. East coast climate is feast or famine. 
 

 

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, dmc76 said:

The best Detroit can get was feb 2015 and people from Chicago call it JR GHD blizzard! 

I'm sure Detroit will beat their Feb 2015 storm total one day... because they have before.

For Chicago the 2015 storm was great, but doesn't quite live up to the 2011 storm.  I realize there are places where that is not the case.

2011 storm in Chicago:  21.2" (locally up to 24"), 60-70 mph peak gusts

2015 storm in Chicago:  19.3" (locally up to 22"), 40-50 mph peak gusts

 

[Gino27]

Like @StormfanaticInd said, I'll gladly take this. A a few more ticks west and this ain't bad at all.

[A-L-E-K]

christmas is saved 

 

[Cary67]

17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

christmas is saved 

 

Xmas flurries are the best

[sbnwx85]

I saw a couple flurries today. It was pretty exciting.

[Solution Man]

I will take my .02 and be happy. Hell it doesn’t even rain here.

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Christmas week has potential