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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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7 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

There is potential for a snowstorm in the OV/lakes next week, but the upper level trough will have to be more energetic than it is now.

Not happening. Lead pattern out ahead of the storm supports a suppressed track. If the s/w can slow down considerably, we can have better phasing with the northern stream as it comes on shore a bit too late.  Only extreme southern Ohio has a shot at some snow. This is going to be a NE special, almost like a December 2010 redux. I hope we get a chance after Dec 18. Even then I don't see any good reason to be optimistic as the flow is too progressive due to lack of blocking on the Pacific side.

This December has been one of the worst in a long time. 

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5 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Without phasing, there is no snowstorm anywhere. A problem the globals are having, is trying to do both. A progressive sheared out look is a non snowstorm outside some low accums from the ull.

I agree. We haven't had a phased storm in years. I can't seem to understand why it's been so difficult to achieve that lately. Should be a nice storm for the Mid-Atlantic and NE even if it doesn't phase as it'll blow up once it hits the warm Atlantic waters. 

Our best opportunity is between Dec 18 and Dec 25 as the block rotates and a small ridge builds in the SE. The PV in Alaska is killing us. 

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3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

No real cold, no real snow chances outside marginal and localized thread the needle setups. Unless you're into tracking nor Easter's this pattern is piss

Yep at least for our area. Maybe lower OV and far eastern parts of subforum could receive some action. Mid Atlantic and NE could be winners in this interesting pseudo El Nino pattern in a moderate La Nina 

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1 hour ago, ILSNOW said:

You want to remember what tracking a potential winter storm is like head over to the nyc forum where they are tracking a potential 15-30 inch storm. Very jealous hoping for a few mood flakes later.

This may be their time until the southeast ridge comes calling later in Jan/Feb.

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2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I think my area might be able to squeeze out 2-3in of snow before the transfer to the coast 

I will likely get screwed by the transfer and only pick up a dusting. Unless of course there's a big time trend either east, or west in which I get the edge of the main event or the pre-transfer.

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In grasping at straws mode, but just looked at the 12z EPS, and heading into Christmas Eve and Day it does have a pretty interesting look, with a frigid cold trough dumping into the Plains and ridging out ahead into the east though still with a -NAO signal.

Surface pressure anomaly even hints at a surface trough over the southern Plains lifting into the lakes and an expansive high over the northern and central Plains. A few of the individual members as expected from the above hint at some potential in the region during that timeframe.

00z run wasn't too different so we'll see if any continuity develops in that timeframe. Also GEFS not crazy far off but not as potentially interesting as the EPS. While we could do a lot worse than that modeled pattern, need to get it within 10 days. The hope is that *if* a system does develop in that timeframe, the -NAO could help prevent warm cutter.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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