Snowstorms Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Pretty decent warm-up coming after Nov 3rd for most of the sub-forum which should last till mid-November. Impressive -PNA and +AO means much of the PNW will be below normal and the east above. EPS and GEFS both have a ridge just east of the Aleutians and it seems to stay put through mid-month. Looks like a typical Nina pattern. To put things into perspective, previous La Nina's like 2007, 2008 and 2010 all featured a warm-up in November. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 I'm starting to favor a cold winter given the warm waters in the north pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Could 2014 be an analog??? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 53 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Could 2014 be an analog??? 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 6 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: 2014 is back from Costa Rica! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 looking more seasonal into the long range following the late heat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 sure why not, got a real 2020 look 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 La Nina is still cranking and warm pool in the north Pacific still going strong. This could make for an interesting winter 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Just a food for thought post. I saw someone else posted elsewhere that It was New York's warmest 5 year stretch of winters on record for the past 5 winters. I checked out Detroit and I was surprised to see that it was a tie here as well for warmest 5 year stretch (though it was all 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, as 17-18 & 18-19 were much colder). 2015-16 thru 2019-20 tied with 1928-29 thru 1932-33 for warmest 5 year stretch of winters, with the 5 year winters mean over 3° above avg (doesn't sound like much but significant for a 5 year stretch). 1928-29 thru 1932-33 avg snow: 41.1" 2015-16 thru 2019-20 avg snow: 41.8" period of record avg: 41.1" (current avg 43") So despite this 5 year warm stretch snowfall was around avg. I could find 5 year stretches of MUCH colder temps with below avg snowfall.. Moral of the story? At a northern latitude, don't let reds and oranges on a 2 and 3 month out map worry you as much as individual patterns. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 I’ve only briefly looked into it, but at this time I expect...AA temps, AA precip and BA snowfall around here.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 I'm thinking slightly above avg temps (wild swings though), well above avg precip, and above avg snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: I’ve only briefly looked into it, but at this time I expect... AA temps, AA precip and BA snowfall around here. . your no Joe Bastardi.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 9 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: I’ve only briefly looked into it, but at this time I expect... AA temps, AA precip and BA snowfall around here. . I would go AA across the board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Storm on Sunday could be quite the wind maker on the Lakes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 This winter is going to be epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This winter is going to be epically mediocre! fyp 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 OOhhh, Hoosier with a winter prediction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This winter is going to be epic! Epically good, or epically terrible? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 4 hours ago, andyhb said: Storm on Sunday could be quite the wind maker on the Lakes. Ya, looking at heading down to Lake Erie Sunday to check out the waves and possible lakeshore flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: fyp Come on. Where's the faith? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, Hoosier said: fyp Not to be a goober, but what does "FYP" mean? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Not to be a goober, but what does "FYP" mean? Fixed your post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Nina winter could go either way, at least for southern Wisconsin. Could be epic like '07-'08, could be MIA like 2011-12. Personally I'm fine with the Twin Cities getting all the fun in November while we remain relatively mild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 I'm at the point where even mediocre is okay on paper as long as it actually feels like winter for a month or two. Just gimme a couple of okay snows, a few 3-4" ones and maybe an 8-10" incher (that's pushing the boundaries of mediocre, but maybe the rest of the season will compensate) and I'll be happy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Quite similar atmospheric and oceanic weather patterns between this year and 1988, also a Nina year. 1988-89 was one of the strongest La Nina's in modern times and also came after two Nino's like this year. However, I don't expect this years La Nina to be similar in magnitude. 1988-89 was a mediocre winter and was fairly dry, which is unusual for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Browsing various outlook posts, it seems like the analogs that keep showing up are 1975-76 1983-84 1988-89 2007-08 2016-17 other ones include 1973-74, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2017-18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Fantasy storm #1A 2020-21 winter 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2020 Author Share Posted November 13, 2020 43 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Fantasy storm #1A 2020-21 winter Flashbacks to the Nov 2015 storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 That setup would be pretty ideal too, nice strong high in Quebec and a strong high pressing in from NW. There have been some signals on the longer range EPS/GEFS of a potential in that period. Something to watch for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Not a bad pattern on the 18z gfs run. Interesting times ahead Imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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