OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 hours ago, Baum said: positive point of view for the win. "That's a damn rare thing these days"- Del Griffith. Always gotta be optimistic. Plus my ski resort can make snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Would be better timed after the 20th. Less chance to melt by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 It didn't vanish on the 12z Euro, so at least there's that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Some initial thoughts on weekend system... When I posted a few days ago, wasn't too optimistic because of the bad antecedent air mass and rain prior to any snow. What happened in the past obviously doesn't determine what happens in a different event in the future. But, the fact that good rain to snow scenarios are rare suggests that lots of things need to work out at this latitude, so to be skeptical in this range. Give a nod to Euro for decent run to run consistency past couple days. But since it's the only model that's been showing this on the operational, want to see some multi-model support before getting more excited. While the EPS members trended better up until 06z run this morning, what I've noticed in the ensembles overall (including 12z GEFS) is that a majority the members with a solid hit favor areas north and northwest of here. The 12z UKMET looks like many of these ensemble members. It's gonna be a big time thread the needle to get a strong enough system to get good totals without it being biased farther northwest in the key synoptic features. Also wanted to note to use caution in getting too excited by the 10:1 and Kuchera maps from the Euro. As modeled on recent runs, temps don't fall solidly below freezing until the end of the event, along with good cold advection aloft (850 mb) not arriving til Sunday morning. These are all reasons to lean lower than 10:1 for ratios. I'd suggest looking at the snow depth output from WxBell or weathermodels.com as a good first guess and then can assess reasons why you'd get ratios to 10:1 or higher in spots. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 I'll take my 2" of slush and run. Wasn't really banking on winter until after Christmas anyway. So this would be just a bonus event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 This storm could still trend south given the negative nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 ^ I wouldn't be shocked to see a New Orleans special. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Nao could be our friend... maybe??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Nao could be our friend... maybe??? At least it's only 16 days from now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: At least it's only 16 days from now. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Quote .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 The upper-level pattern for the rest of the week continues to show ridging. There are a few changes/trends in the latest model runs for this weekends potential winter storm. Models are now in better agreement in taking the storm through the Great Lakes with no appreciable precipitation for the MPX CWA. 12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC develop a surface low near the Arkansas/Missouri border and track it southern lower Michigan Saturday night. Ensembles lend more support toward this solution with only a few outliers developing a phased system that would track further north and west. So, what has changed since yesterday? The northern stream of the jet appears more progressive. This changes the jet dynamics for the potential storm. A more progressive northern stream limits potential jet phasing resulting in a weaker low-pressure system that tracks further southeast. Models also slow the southern trough, keeping it positively tilted as wave struggles to eject out of the southern CONUS. My suspicion is that the trend toward a weaker system to the south and east will continue if previous systems are any indication this year. Guidance may trend it back toward the north and west as we get closer to the end of week, but the bulk of the QPF should remain away from the CWA. This is a highly complex set up in a split-flow pattern that should deliver a winter storm for someone, just not for us. Looking beyond the weekend, cooler weather returns behind the system with high temperatures near freezing. A few weak systems are possible next week, the first should track to the north with a chance for light precipitation Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 27 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: True In a month you'll get over the weenieness. Trust the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 GFS trends not the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Any takers on the GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Rainer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, A-L-E-K said: Rainer Cap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 RainerIn that setup, your backyard would be screwed until winds flip northwesterly Saturday evening. Lake is still quite mild. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: In that setup, your backyard would be screwed until winds flip northwesterly Saturday evening. Lake is still quite mild. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk so rainer for Alek....snow for everyone else. Winter is on. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 27 minutes ago, Baum said: so rainer for Alek....snow for everyone else. Winter is on. Rain/snow line around ORD.lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 40 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: In that setup, your backyard would be screwed until winds flip northwesterly Saturday evening. Lake is still quite mild. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk It's a thread the needle setup in general, but even more for the city (talking about the heart of the city, not well inland/northwest like ORD) because of the residual lake warmth. Not that it can't happen there, but it's trickier. If you are talking 850 mb temps of like -2C or even -4C, that probably wouldn't be good enough to get significant accumulations downtown as long as the flow is onshore. And forget about it if it's warmer than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 22 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Extended MEI data in the link below. MEI stands for Multivariate ENSO Index. Slightly different than ONI but I find it more transparent. 1931-32 was a warm neutral. 1930-31 was a strong El Nino. La Nina didn't happen till 1933-34. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html Interesting. 1933-34 was apparently a huge winter for Ontario, New York State, and Quebec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Baum said: so rainer for Alek....snow for everyone else. Winter is on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, wegoweather said: Totally remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 00z NAM shows the hurdle lakeside in IL/WI. It is cold enough aloft to snow but that marine influence is a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 00z NAM shows the hurdle lakeside in IL/WI. It is cold enough aloft to snow but that marine influence is a problem.Also shows marginal temps overall. Surface 0 line is way up in northwest IL valid 12z Saturday. Gonna need heavy rates to consistently overcome the boundary layer issues. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 Nobody wants to make a thread for this bad boy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Nobody wants to make a thread for this bad boy? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Not a bad looking pattern heading into Christmas week. Christmas miracle??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 zzzzzzzzzzz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 as long as when winter kicks in it ends on March 10 or thereabouts. 70 day winters with strict cut offs are okay by me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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