Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[OrdIowPitMsp]

8 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Instead of low cutting over Cedar Rapids looks to move over Waukegan on the 12Z

Pretty abrupt shift south and weaker. Not going to put much faith into location at this point just glad to see a storm on consecutive cycles. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

No thanks. First of all who said winter is going to blow? its early December lol. Secondly, I can understand wanting an early spring for a change, but a Morch would be agricultural disaster.

Its early December with nothing on the horizon on the models for weeks. I think we can pretty safely write this month off at least locally. And if I am shooting for Morch 2.0, then that is a third of the snowy season. 

Morch 2.0 is only an Agricultural Disaster only if we follow it with average to below average April/May, as it did in Morch 1.0. I vote that we just roll it right into summer. 

We now have 2 seasons. Above Average, March to December, Above Average with Some Snow, January and February. 

[Snowstorms]

Nothing but rainers on the GFS lol.

Have your umbrellas ready boys. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

30 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Its early December with nothing on the horizon on the models for weeks. I think we can pretty safely write this month off at least locally. And if I am shooting for Morch 2.0, then that is a third of the snowy season. 

Morch 2.0 is only an Agricultural Disaster only if we follow it with average to below average April/May, as it did in Morch 1.0. I vote that we just roll it right into summer. 

We now have 2 seasons. Above Average, March to December, Above Average with Some Snow, January and February. 

To each their own. I hate spring so I've enjoyed the delayed springs of late, more snow and less allergies. 

you can write off December as a good winter month, but not necessarily write off snow chances. the snowstorm of Nov 30-Dec 1 didn't show up more than a handful of days out as I recall.

 

[Gino27]

 

I mentioned earlier that big changes in the strat like SSW's that seem to always be pushed back by models aren't valid. GFS actually bumped this up a day. Will have to see what the euro and ensembles do. Certainly something to watch out for.

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzzzzzz

[SchaumburgStormer]

27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

To each their own. I hate spring so I've enjoyed the delayed springs of late, more snow and less allergies. 

you can write off December as a good winter month, but not necessarily write off snow chances. the snowstorm of Nov 30-Dec 1 didn't show up more than a handful of days out as I recall.

 

Fair enough, seems we can always fall into something even in a bad pattern. And at this point, we just need a sneak attack advisory event to get everyone off the ledge. 

[Spartman]

17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

To each their own. I hate spring so I've enjoyed the delayed springs of late, more snow and less allergies. 

you can write off December as a good winter month, but not necessarily write off snow chances. the snowstorm of Nov 30-Dec 1 didn't show up more than a handful of days out as I recall.

 

The snowstorm of Nov 30-Dec 1 was already enough to prevent DAY and CMH from reaching the top 10 least snowiest Decembers on record. CVG, on the other hand, is currently tied for the 6th least snowiest December on record with 1994, 1987, 1938, and 1911.

Heading into the long-range, we may very well escape December without any lows in the teens.

Top 5 Latest First Sub-20 Low Temp Readings for CVG:
1. January 31, 1932
2. January 18, 1882
3. January 17, 1890
4. January 8, 1966
5. January 5, 2016

Top 5 Latest First Sub-20 Low Temp Readings for CMH:
1. January 31, 1932
2. January 17, 1890
3. January 4, 2016
4. January 2, 1995
4. January 2, 1919

Top 5 Latest First Sub-20 Low Temp Readings for DAY:
1. January 30, 1932
2. January 2, 1919
3. January 1, 1924
4. December 31, 1939
5. December 28, 2012

[Cary67]

Euro magic

[WestMichigan]

25 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Euro magic

I'll take that since I am one of the few remaining people in this sub to have not had a measurable snowfall yet this season.

[roardog]

I would take a rainy, stormy look to the models over the pattern we've had this past weekend and will have thru mid week. If it's a stormy pattern in December, there's a good chance to run into an accumulating snow, especially up here. 

[Hoosier]

54 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I'll take that since I am one of the few remaining people in this sub to have not had a measurable snowfall yet this season.

0.0"?  Not even light scraps?

[WestMichigan]

I have had a trace on a couple of occasions, but unless it fell and night and melted before I could see it in the morning there hasn't been anything measurable.  Look at the snow maps, there is a donut hole around this part of the state.

[WestMichigan]

GRR is toying with me

 

We are still expecting a system to affect the area in the Friday
through Sunday time frame. There are multiple upper troughs and
cut off lows that come together in some fashion to bring the low
to the lakes this weekend. The first trough is currently in the
middle of the Pacific with a cut off low dropping south near
Southern California. The waves come together over the plains on
Friday with a low moving through the Great Lakes in the Saturday
time frame. At this point, looking at the operational models, the
Canadian is furthest northwest moving a low through Wisconsin. The
GFS is more of a middle of the road track, moving the low through
the GRR forecast area. The ECMWF is further southeast, tracking
the low through Southeast Lower Michigan. 12z European ensemble
low locations Saturday evening are starting to zero in on the
southern Great Lakes area for the track of the low, so leaning
towards a GFS or ECMWF solution.

What this means is we are looking at a potentially impactful
system this weekend with a rain to snow type of scenario. Wind is
also in play depending on the depth of the low. Way too early to
nail down any details at this point with this system, but we are
certainly watching it. It appears we are looking at a period of
lake effect snow as well on the backside, Sunday into Monday.
More to come this week as details emerge.

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I have had a trace on a couple of occasions, but unless it fell and night and melted before I could see it in the morning there hasn't been anything measurable.  Look at the snow maps, there is a donut hole around this part of the state.

Not much better here, but man, you really should be doing better.

[Hoosier]

Good thing this is the CFS suck time of month.  Plenty of time to cool off for January.

Obviously you can get away with some warmth and still have a snowy month, but it just becomes a harder task the warmer the anomaly is.  Would need to have great timing and not waste the cold when there is some.

[Cary67]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Good thing this is the CFS suck time of month.  Plenty of time to cool off for January.

Obviously you can get away with some warmth and still have a snowy month, but it just becomes a harder task the warmer the anomaly is.  Would need to have great timing and not waste the cold when there is some.

They should only run that at the very end of the month. CFSv2 is in auto red mode till then.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

They should only run that at the very end of the month. CFSv2 is in auto red mode till then.

We can always go to Alaska.

[Hoosier]

On the plus side, the wet look that is familiar in La Nina.  So you'd roll the dice and hope for the best.

 

[WaryWarren]

Cold rainers all January long. I think I'm in love. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Does anyone know if the winter of 1931-32 was a La Nina?

[michsnowfreak]

37 minutes ago, WaryWarren said:

Cold rainers all January long. I think I'm in love. 

Nothing like being in love with a fantasy 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Has anyone here read the book "So Cold a Sky - Upper Michigan weather stories"? I ordered it through ABE Books earlier this year, and it's great, giving all kinds of historical details and maps of past winters. Apparently there was a streak of mild winters in the Midwest and Great Lakes in the mid to late 1820s.

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Does anyone know if the winter of 1931-32 was a La Nina?

Not sure, but that was an extremely warm winter. I was looking at Detroit data for winters 1931-32 and 1881-82, those winters were so mild it was crazy. 

 

What brings up 1931-32?

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Does anyone know if the winter of 1931-32 was a La Nina?

I think so.  Or at least close.

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Has anyone here read the book "So Cold a Sky - Upper Michigan weather stories"? I ordered it through ABE Books earlier this year, and it's great, giving all kinds of historical details and maps of past winters. Apparently there was a streak of mild winters in the Midwest and Great Lakes in the mid to late 1820s.

I have a book about upper Michigan weather but also David Ludlum's History of North American winters. fascinating reads. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

I have a book about upper Michigan weather but also David Ludlum's History of North American winters. fascinating reads. 

David Ludlum's books are awesome. Hard to find, though. I ordered both volumes of Early American Winters a few years back. Pricey, but worth every penny. I go back to them year after year.

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said:

David Ludlum's books are awesome. Hard to find, though. I ordered both volumes of Early American Winters a few years back. Pricey, but worth every penny. I go back to them year after year.

oops yeah, they are called Early American Winters. There were some very harsh winters back then, but also some very mild, "open" winters. 

[weatherbo]

53 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Has anyone here read the book "So Cold a Sky - Upper Michigan weather stories"? I ordered it through ABE Books earlier this year, and it's great, giving all kinds of historical details and maps of past winters. Apparently there was a streak of mild winters in the Midwest and Great Lakes in the mid to late 1820s.

I’ve read the book and was lucky enough to see Carl Bohnak in Marquette in 2016, where he gave a presentation on the book, along with some awesome photos not shared in the book. 
Carl is also the local meteorologist at TV6 in Negaunee. 

[weatherbo]

2 hours ago, WaryWarren said:

Cold rainers all January long. I think I'm in love. 

turd