Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, pondo1000 said:

Does anyone have the count on how many frickin times we have seen a sudden stratospheric warming event modeled that NEVER comes to fruition? 

lol I'm sure it's plenty. everything modeled never comes to fruition. Winter is coming 

[Gino27]

1 hour ago, pondo1000 said:

Does anyone have the count on how many frickin times we have seen a sudden stratospheric warming event modeled that NEVER comes to fruition? 

Big thing to watch is if the models keep moving the goal posts with them. If a SSW keeps showing up at the end of the run, it's not valid. If it gets closer as time goes on, it might be legit.

[CheeselandSkies]

3 hours ago, Gino27 said:

Big thing to watch is if the models keep moving the goal posts with them. If a SSW keeps showing up at the end of the run, it's not valid. If it gets closer as time goes on, it might be legit.

It'll happen in February just in time to kill chase season...again.

[mississaugasnow]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree. I still think a stormy Winter with plenty of snow was on tap but a majority of the fun will be January on word. I also don't think the rest of December will be a shutout for the sub but it will not be sustained Winter by any means. I made sure to take pictures of my outdoor decorations in the snow this week just in case our bad December luck of the past few years continues. Supposedly gefs shows strat warming in late December, which is a good sign.

I think zero expectations is the way to go into this winter. I think we will see a period of storminess but overall I expect a warm winter in the lower Great Lakes with below average snowfall. Though that will be very dependent on location even in the Lower lakes. Toronto has jumped out ahead fast but just 60 Miles across the lake in WNY they are off to a brutal start. 

December-writings on the wall for this month. Every storm (aside from pockets like Toronto) in Great Lakes and now New England has underperformed due to warmth. More sloppy rain and wet snow systems but the tables been set. 

January-Interesting area wide. 

February-Interesting but torch really starts to show up

March-Early spring with tornado outbreaks much further north (Ohio,Indiana ect..) 

[Hoosier]

33 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

I think zero expectations is the way to go into this winter. I think we will see a period of storminess but overall I expect a warm winter in the lower Great Lakes with below average snowfall. Though that will be very dependent on location even in the Lower lakes. Toronto has jumped out ahead fast but just 60 Miles across the lake in WNY they are off to a brutal start. 

December-writings on the wall for this month. Every storm (aside from pockets like Toronto) in Great Lakes and now New England has underperformed due to warmth. More sloppy rain and wet snow systems but the tables been set. 

January-Interesting area wide. 

February-Interesting but torch really starts to show up

March-Early spring with tornado outbreaks much further north (Ohio,Indiana ect..) 

Fwiw, I generally agree with that Jan-Feb progression.  Overall, temps and storm tracks may be more hostile in February.

[Baum]

50 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

I think zero expectations is the way to go into this winter. I think we will see a period of storminess but overall I expect a warm winter in the lower Great Lakes with below average snowfall. Though that will be very dependent on location even in the Lower lakes. Toronto has jumped out ahead fast but just 60 Miles across the lake in WNY they are off to a brutal start. 

December-writings on the wall for this month. Every storm (aside from pockets like Toronto) in Great Lakes and now New England has underperformed due to warmth. More sloppy rain and wet snow systems but the tables been set. 

January-Interesting area wide. 

February-Interesting but torch really starts to show up

March-Early spring with tornado outbreaks much further north (Ohio,Indiana ect..) 

your ouiji board has spoken.

[RCNYILWX]

First post a long time. Have nothing really optimistic to add to what's been written recently for the next few weeks. Barring no major changes for the weekend system (I'm not currently liking that period to work out), going to have to hope there's something snow wise in the cooler interlude behind that.

 

Interestingly enough, both the GEFS and EPS have a -NAO look for most of their recent runs. Problem is they both develop a ++EPO toward the end of the run, which would torch the CONUS even in the presence of a -NAO. Would in all likelihood mean another warm Christmas period if that look pans out. Concur that January is probably best chance for a decent snow pattern for a time. For what they're worth, weeklies kind of point that way as well.

 

In our local winter outlook (NWS LOT), we leaned warmer (actually got a nastygram from CPC for going against their temperature outlook 2 winters ago so we didn't explicitly say warmer than normal), and AN precip, which has strongest signal in Ninas. Since December is leaning dry, we should get most of our winter precip in J-F.

 

Snow wise, think somehow we'll end up within range of normal. Last year was crappy as we all know and it eeked out just slightly below normal, though did have a head start from late Oct-Nov events. We're overdue for an area wide higher end warning event, so hoping we get 1 or 2 systems to track favorably. Figure if we do get into a more classic Niña pattern, we can manage to get one to work out ala 1999.

 

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[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

I think zero expectations is the way to go into this winter. I think we will see a period of storminess but overall I expect a warm winter in the lower Great Lakes with below average snowfall. Though that will be very dependent on location even in the Lower lakes. Toronto has jumped out ahead fast but just 60 Miles across the lake in WNY they are off to a brutal start. 

December-writings on the wall for this month. Every storm (aside from pockets like Toronto) in Great Lakes and now New England has underperformed due to warmth. More sloppy rain and wet snow systems but the tables been set. 

January-Interesting area wide. 

February-Interesting but torch really starts to show up

March-Early spring with tornado outbreaks much further north (Ohio,Indiana ect..) 

I can't say that I disagree with your assertion that January may be the best Winter month (at least I think that's what you are implying lol). It would also be interesting if we had an early spring, that is certainly something we are overdue for after several years of unusually late freezing and snowfalls.  And while you may be right, I just can not go with below average snowfall in the lower Great Lakes in early December. I can always readjust that mindset in mid January or so depending where we are and where we look like we are headed, but with the overwhelming look of a wetter than average Jan-Apr,  I just cannot go below average yet, at least outside the lake belts. Just because I am saying I think snowfall will be averaging above normal does not mean it will be a good winter for ice or snowpack.  Detroit, Cleveland, and Toronto are above average to date.

[michsnowfreak]

45 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

First post a long time. Have nothing really optimistic to add to what's been written recently for the next few weeks. Barring no major changes for the weekend system (I'm not currently liking that period to work out), going to have to hope there's something snow wise in the cooler interlude behind that.

 

Interestingly enough, both the GEFS and EPS have a -NAO look for most of their recent runs. Problem is they both develop a ++EPO toward the end of the run, which would torch the CONUS even in the presence of a -NAO. Would in all likelihood mean another warm Christmas period if that look pans out. Concur that January is probably best chance for a decent snow pattern for a time. For what they're worth, weeklies kind of point that way as well.

 

In our local winter outlook (NWS LOT), we leaned warmer (actually got a nastygram from CPC for going against their temperature outlook 2 winters ago so we didn't explicitly say warmer than normal), and AN precip, which has strongest signal in Ninas. Since December is leaning dry, we should get most of our winter precip in J-F.

 

Snow wise, think somehow we'll end up within range of normal. Last year was crappy as we all know and it eeked out just slightly below normal, though did have a head start from late Oct-Nov events. We're overdue for an area wide higher end warning event, so hoping we get 1 or 2 systems to track favorably. Figure if we do get into a more classic Niña pattern, we can manage to get one to work out ala 1999.

 

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Nice to hear from you. DTX went for a warmer than average December with average temperatures in January in February.  They went above avg precip and average to above average snowfall for the Winter. 

 

 That's ridiculous of cpc to do that. many years ago, a now retired met told me something similar about how they basically bullied the nws into touting what they wanted.

 

As warm as it was last season finished a hair above avg snow at DTW. I know some don't like "stat padding" snows, but I think they are actually extra impressive when you can see white on Halloween or Mothers Day. We have a lllllong way to go in 20-21.

[Frog Town]

I'm sure some in here follow Judah Cohen and his Polar Vortex Science.  Last year at this time he was thinking a SSW would trigger a weakening polar vortex leading to cold for the second half of December.  He was hinting at the same thing this past week.  Will this trump, or change the ++EPO signal we seem to be getting?? 

[IWXwx]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Nice to hear from you. DTX went for a warmer than average December with average temperatures in January in February.  They went above avg precip and average to above average snowfall for the Winter. 

 

 That's ridiculous of cpc to do that. many years ago, a now retired met told me something similar about how they basically bullied the nws into touting what they wanted.

 

As warm as it was last season finished a hair above avg snow at DTW. I know some don't like "stat padding" snows, but I think they are actually extra impressive when you can see white on Halloween or Mothers Day. We have a lllllong way to go in 20-21.

Probably Bill. I've often wondered if that was the case about sending out a "common message", even if the local offices didn't agree.

[Snowstorms]

On 12/5/2020 at 7:23 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Did a teacher ACTUALLY say that to a 3rd grade class!? If so, that's ridiculous to fill kids heads with that at a learning/vulnerable age. Although I remember reading a similar article back in the late 1990s. It's absolutely comical, not only because snowfall (along with precip) has actually increased at many places above 40N, but because a snow season literally spans half the year or more on average from first to last flake. I guess the teacher expected some Armageddon-like transformation in 8 years. The 2010s were the trifecta at Detroit...the wettest, snowiest, and warmest decade on record.

Yeah he actually did. And I naively believed him. I think it was cause of those 90's winters and 2001-02 which made him reach to such a preposterous conclusion. But then of course that 2002-2005 stretch was snowy and cold. Probably thought it would be winters last hurrah before it ceased to exist in 2010. 

[michsnowfreak]

22 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Probably Bill. I've often wondered if that was the case about sending out a "common message", even if the local offices didn't agree.

Yes it was Bill. And it basically had to do with promoting global warming 

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Yeah he actually did. And I naively believed him. I think it was cause of those 90's winters and 2001-02 which made him reach to such a preposterous conclusion. But then of course that 2002-2005 stretch was snowy and cold. Probably thought it would be winters last hurrah before it ceased to exist in 2010. 

 Crazy. But that's just how people like to jump the gun. Where in a mile stretch of winters now, but look what happened from 2008 to 2015...lots of cold and heavy snowfall 

[Snowstorms]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree. I still think a stormy Winter with plenty of snow was on tap but a majority of the fun will be January on word. I also don't think the rest of December will be a shutout for the sub but it will not be sustained Winter by any means. I made sure to take pictures of my outdoor decorations in the snow this week just in case our bad December luck of the past few years continues. Supposedly gefs shows strat warming in late December, which is a good sign.

I don't like the word stormy and Nina in the same sentence. Just because it's a La Nina doesn't necessarily mean it'll be stormy for our sub-forum. The same logic can be applied with El Nino's. The reason I say that is because there have been a number of stormless Nina's in the past, i.e. 2011-12, 1999-00 and 1988-89 just to name a few. Is stormless even a word lol? La Nina's tend to enhance the polar jet which results in more periodic cold shots than El Nino's and more clippers. El Nino's enhance the subtropical jet because it intensifies the Hadley Circulation creating more Pacific Jet extensions and milder air for us and Canada and cooler weather across the SE due to constant cloud cover and dynamic cooling. So I'd take my chances with a La Nina over an El Nino any day. I mean out of our top 5 snowiest winters, 4 are La nina's in Toronto. But I wouldn't expect a plethora of storms just because we have one. Right now La Nina forcing is being shunted due to other forces like the EPO/NAO/AO hence the lack of cold and snow in typical Nina Decembers. 

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I don't like the word stormy and Nina in the same sentence. Just because it's a La Nina doesn't necessarily mean it'll be stormy for our sub-forum. The same logic can be applied with El Nino's. The reason I say that is because there have been a number of stormless Nina's in the past, i.e. 2011-12, 1999-00 and 1988-89 just to name a few. Is stormless even a word lol? La Nina's tend to enhance the polar jet which results in more periodic cold shots than El Nino's and more clippers. El Nino's enhance the subtropical jet because it intensifies the Hadley Circulation creating more Pacific Jet extensions and milder air for us and Canada and cooler weather across the SE due to constant cloud cover and dynamic cooling. So I'd take my chances with a La Nina over an El Nino any day. I mean out of our top 5 snowiest winters, 4 are La nina's in Toronto. But I wouldn't expect a plethora of storms just because we have one. Right now La Nina forcing is being shunted due to other forces like the EPO/NAO/AO hence the lack of cold and snow in typical Nina Decembers. 

True points...also models are overwhelming with a wet look into this region starting in January. So take it all fwiw

[Snowstorms]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

True points...also models are overwhelming with a wet look into this region starting in January. So take it all fwiw

Yes it does look a bit stormier but nothing extraordinary. Overall look isn't great especially if you like snow cover. And not even a single fantasy snowstorm on the GFS. It's bad. 

[Snowstorms]

Wonder what's the cause. Thing's just changed after that deep -EPO winter in 2013-14. 

[Thundersnow12]

8 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Lol brutal 

Mid 60s out here Tuesday. 

What a snoozer so far back home unfortunately 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

First post a long time. Have nothing really optimistic to add to what's been written recently for the next few weeks. Barring no major changes for the weekend system (I'm not currently liking that period to work out), going to have to hope there's something snow wise in the cooler interlude behind that.

 

Interestingly enough, both the GEFS and EPS have a -NAO look for most of their recent runs. Problem is they both develop a ++EPO toward the end of the run, which would torch the CONUS even in the presence of a -NAO. Would in all likelihood mean another warm Christmas period if that look pans out. Concur that January is probably best chance for a decent snow pattern for a time. For what they're worth, weeklies kind of point that way as well.

 

In our local winter outlook (NWS LOT), we leaned warmer (actually got a nastygram from CPC for going against their temperature outlook 2 winters ago so we didn't explicitly say warmer than normal), and AN precip, which has strongest signal in Ninas. Since December is leaning dry, we should get most of our winter precip in J-F.

 

Snow wise, think somehow we'll end up within range of normal. Last year was crappy as we all know and it eeked out just slightly below normal, though did have a head start from late Oct-Nov events. We're overdue for an area wide higher end warning event, so hoping we get 1 or 2 systems to track favorably. Figure if we do get into a more classic Niña pattern, we can manage to get one to work out ala 1999.

 

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Thanks for your thoughts RC.

[Cary67]

++EPO was the crusher last winter. If it stays that way again this winter is toast. Think it swung negative last spring. Good times

[A-L-E-K]

9 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Mid 60s out here Tuesday. 

What a snoozer so far back home unfortunately 

i need to accept our new worst winter climo but i'm in denial

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Might be something interesting brewing for Minnesota this weekend. Stay tuned.

[Cary67]

22 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Might be something interesting brewing for Minnesota this weekend. Stay tuned.

Trends look better for your area

[SchaumburgStormer]

If winter is going to blow, can we lock in another Morch? 

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Yes it does look a bit stormier but nothing extraordinary. Overall look isn't great especially if you like snow cover. And not even a single fantasy snowstorm on the GFS. It's bad. 

I was talking starting in January. models are unanimous in a wet look. hopefully we can get some more snow before Christmas though

[michsnowfreak]

47 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

If winter is going to blow, can we lock in another Morch? 

No thanks. First of all who said winter is going to blow? its early December lol. Secondly, I can understand wanting an early spring for a change, but a Morch would be agricultural disaster.

[Pascy619]

GFS has come way south with the weekend storm. Long ways to go with this one. 

[Cary67]

9 minutes ago, WI_SNOWSTORM said:

GFS has come way south with the weekend storm. Long ways to go with this one. 

Instead of low cutting over Cedar Rapids looks to move over Waukegan on the 12Z

[Pascy619]

3 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Instead of low cutting over Cedar Rapids looks to move over Waukegan on the 12Z

It does. CMC takes the low from there and cuts it straight up through the UP of Michigan.