Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, slow poke said:

I had thought I had seen someone say the last 5 winters in Detroit are the warmest when combined or something like that in recorded history or something like that, I could definitely have this wrong though. Like we’ve all said, snow is only a part of what makes up a winter, cold air is a part of that also and I can definitely see where people could have a legitimate grip about the lack of cold during the past few winters. I was talking to one of my uncles who’s a ice fisherman that lives on Anchor Bay last week about the lack of “safe” ice the past two winters. He thought there was maybe only 2 weeks combined between the past two winters where you could go out safely on good ice. On average you should be able to get out on that ice by mid January through early March,  8 weeks or so per winter. Again every winter is different but the “average “ would probably be about 8 weeks per winter. People upset we don’t have a foot of snow on the ground from December 1st to March 15th south of the 45th Parallel would be equivalent to me complaining all the golf courses in lower Michigan aren’t all open year round, it’s just silly I feel. There’s definitely glass are 1/2 full and glass are 1/2 empty people in this forum, we pretty much know where we all are at in that spectrum and to me that’s what helps make this interesting to read no matter how ridiculous someone’s opinion is lol. 

I would have to look into that, I am not sure if the past 5 winters were the warmest 5 year set on record. Its possible as 3 of the 5 were much warmer than avg, the other 2 near avg. I do know that the 2010s winters were not the warmest winters on record (the 1990s, 1950s, 1930s were warmer) but they were the snowiest on record.  I think the ice in 2018-19 was actually quite good, terrible last year. Obviously snow is just a part of the equation...but you cannot look at things a couple years at a time. When I look at the long term trends, I will take winter temperatures a degree warmer in return for several inches more snowfall.

[slow poke]

10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Went to mount rainier in October. One of the most beautiful places in the USA.

Couldn’t agree with you more, we were out there two summers back, words can’t describe how beautiful that mountain is. We went to the ranger station which I think is one of the snowiest locations in the lower 48, I couldn’t imagine the view if we were to have hiked up a couple 1000 feet. I’ve been lucky enough to spend a lot of time out west in the mountains the past 25 years or so during all 4 seasons and to me, and my family, Mt Rainier was probably our favorite! 

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said:

Climate change has already taken places below 40° N out of the game in this subforum. The lower Great Lakes region is next.

I am sure you are being facetious, thats simply not happening lol. Unless you mean out of the game for wall to wall cold/snow.  When it snows on 60-70 days in a Winter that's already 7ﾟ warmer than average and we see flakes on Halloween and mothers day...I don't think I am quite worried about Winter going anywhere

[slow poke]

On 11/7/2020 at 8:30 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Just a food for thought post. I saw someone else posted elsewhere that It was New York's warmest 5 year stretch of winters on record for the past 5 winters. I checked out Detroit and I was surprised to see that it was a tie here as well for warmest 5 year stretch (though it was all 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, as 17-18 & 18-19 were much colder). 2015-16 thru 2019-20 tied with 1928-29 thru 1932-33 for warmest 5 year stretch of winters, with the 5 year winters mean over 3° above avg (doesn't sound like much but significant for a 5 year stretch). 

1928-29 thru 1932-33 avg snow: 41.1"

2015-16 thru 2019-20 avg snow: 41.8"

period of record avg: 41.1" (current avg 43")

 

So despite this 5 year warm stretch snowfall was around avg. I could find 5 year stretches of MUCH colder temps with below avg snowfall.. Moral of the story? At a northern latitude, don't let reds and oranges on a 2 and 3 month out map worry you as much as individual patterns. 

It was this post snow freak, I probably miss understood it but I think it says we are currently in a 5 year stretch of warm winters when averaging them out. 

[michsnowfreak]

16 minutes ago, slow poke said:

It was this post snow freak, I probably miss understood it but I think it says we are currently in a 5 year stretch of warm winters when averaging them out. 

oh wow you were correct. When averaging DJF the 2 were the warmest 5 year winter periods, but both averaged normal snowfall.

 

it does seem like extremes are increasing, as right before that warm stretch began we had the coldest Feb in 140 years in 2015 which was the year after our most severe winter in recorded history, and a slew of mostly severe winters dating to 2008. 

 

I just remembered this is the discussion thread not banter lol...so despite a zzzzz stretch im sticking with my guns. In the end winter will average warmer, wetter, and snowier than avg.

[Cary67]

33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I am sure you are being facetious, thats simply not happening lol. Unless you mean out of the game for wall to wall cold/snow.  When it snows on 60-70 days in a Winter that's already 7ﾟ warmer than average and we see flakes on Halloween and mothers day...I don't think I am quite worried about Winter going anywhere

Does it snow 60-70 days a winter in the lower great lakes without LES?

[WaryWarren]

I'm dreaming of a brown Christmas
Just like the ones I used to know
Where the tree tops don't glisten
And children listen
To hear sleigh bells in the mud, the mud.

[nwohweather]

I'm dreaming of a brown Christmas
Just like the ones I used to know
Where the tree tops don't glisten
And children listen
To hear sleigh bells in the mud, the mud.

Lol I highly recommend a green Christmas. I put lights on the palm trees this week! 60s and sunny is a hell of a way to celebrate the Holidays

[michsnowfreak]

44 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Does it snow 60-70 days a winter in the lower great lakes without LES?

 I don't have the exact average, but this region definitely see snowflakes a lot more than many other regions.

 Unfortunately even with xmacis there's no way to compile data that includes trace amounts without counting them, so I decided to use last season and then the 2 extreme poster child seasons of 2013-14 & 2011-12. 

Chicago-

2019-20: 61 days with snow (DJF +5.0°)

2013-14: 74 days with snow (DJF -7.6°)

2011-12: 39 days with snow (DJF +6.4°)

Detroit-

2019-20: 77 days with snow (DJF +4.6°)

2013-14: 92 days with snow (DJF -7.1°)

2011-12: 53 days with snow (DJF +5.0°)

[Cary67]

Surprised ORD had 61 days of snow last winter. Although at least half those days were a trace

[dmc76]

18 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

What I don't think people are understanding is that, even here in far NE IL, our winter climo is horrible.  For people south of here, I don't know how you deal with it.  It's bad enough here.

Next week, highs will be 45-50...that should never happen in Dec.  It should never, ever be nice in DJF, where you walk outside and you can actually feel the warmth of the sun.  But the expected warmth next week is only about 10 degrees above normal here.  That's crazy.  So, unfortunately, these warm temps in the 2nd week of Dec are actually not that unusual.  That's the problem; there's just no margin for error for most of us.  In order to have a decent winter, basically every day needs to be at or below normal.  If our climo was just 5 degrees cooler, everything would be ok.  Precip is fine; temps are the killer.

Even in the depths of winter in January, a high of 40 here is just as common as a high of 20.  That's not good.  Highs near 20 and lows near 0 should be fairly common in winter.  Not saying that needs to be "normal"...but days like that shouldn't be unusual.  Unfortunately, they are.  When your climo is 30/15 even at the coldest time of year, there's no margin for error.  In Fall, when anticipating winter, you think "the days are getting shorter, time for winter'...just like it occurs for summer in May.  In JJA, we know it's going to be warm.  Just want the same idea for cold in DJF.  Seasons in seasons.  It doesn't need to be sub-zero every morning with feet of snow on the ground...but this bare dry ground crap with sun and daytime temps in the 40s is an absolute joke.  What's the point??  The shorter days don't even matter.  It was 60 on Christmas last year, even when it's nearly the shortest day all year. Does it ever feel chilly on June 21st, the longest day of the year?  No.  There needs to be a period in the year when you just know it will be cold and snowy.  Maybe not all of DJF...but at least mid-Dec to mid-Feb.  But there is actually no period at any point during the year when you can count on winter, as high temps of 40+ can occur occasionally here, on any day in Jan. 

It's the Midwest winter gradient that kills us.  Very few of us are on the right side of this gradient.  In N WI, average Jan highs are near 20.  But in central IL, it's near 40...not far as the crow flies.

We should all just stop pretending.  We have winter discussions, long range threads, obs threads, monthly threads, all this anticipation and excitement...but why??  Getting one or two exciting winter storms in a 90-day period is not winter.

It would just be nice, with covid and all of the other crap going on in the world and with daily life, if we could just enjoy some serious deep winter, where you don't have to look at indices and models and hoping for everything to come together.  It should just come together because it's winter.  Hard to get in the holiday spirit without it.  Nothing crazy...just something like 3"+ of snow per week, with 20s in the day and 10 at night...then if an occasional thaw occurs, there's enough residual snow on the ground to handle it before the next snow comes.  Maybe an occasional larger storm to shake things up a bit...and the occasional sub-zero morning...but what we need is consistency.  But it's not meant to be.  Folks are frustrated by this...I can't imagine I'm the only one.

RELOCATE to the U.P. In a snowbelt 

[michsnowfreak]

49 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Surprised ORD had 61 days of snow last winter. Although at least half those days were a trace

 Definitely.  When you think of those early and late season snows that don't stick or all the countless days with flurries in the middle of Winter the traces really add up. ORD averaged 29 days of measurable snow per winter and 44 days of 1"+ snowdepth. DTW averages 37 days of measurable snow per winter and 50 days of 1"+ snowdepth.

[michsnowfreak]

EPS and GEFS looking very different as we head towards the Solstice

[RyanDe680]

lol  

 

nominate for thread of the year 

[Frog Town]

36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

EPS and GEFS looking very different as we head towards the Solstice

Can you please elaborate if this is for the better??

Thanks!

[beavis1729]

I’m just tired of this. That’s all. Some people are content with winter in other ways (short days, cloudier, flakes in the air, potential for big storms even without snowpack retention, cold and dry with iced over lakes), etc. Everyone is different, no problem. But people need to be able to vent on a winter weather board. That’s how it goes in these parts. We are among friends and weenies. It’s not a big deal. The current pattern is horrible for everyone. It’s just reality. I don’t like accepting reality when it sucks. 

Hop on board the weenie train...everyone is welcome. Jebwalks for all. 

[beavis1729]

8 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

can't believe i almost missed the annual way too early beavis meltdown

 

 

Yes sir...and COVID accelerated it even more this year. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Can you please elaborate if this is for the better??

Thanks!

EPS is colder, GEFS is warmer. I'm not good with indices and stuff, but that's the basic idea lol.

[cyclone77]

12z Euro says MSP may get over the 20" hump by next weekend.

 

 

For the rest of us...

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

I’m just tired of this. That’s all. Some people are content with winter in other ways (short days, cloudier, flakes in the air, potential for big storms even without snowpack retention, cold and dry with iced over lakes), etc. Everyone is different, no problem. But people need to be able to vent on a winter weather board. That’s how it goes in these parts. We are among friends and weenies. It’s not a big deal. The current pattern is horrible for everyone. It’s just reality. I don’t like accepting reality when it sucks. 

Hop on board the weenie train...everyone is welcome. Jebwalks for all. 

Winter will come. I'm not a fan of the pattern, but once things get active good things can happen. Retention wise I have a feeling colder air will hit more consistently after Christmas. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Coming close to throwing in the towel on December 

[Gino27]

8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Coming close to throwing in the towel on December 

Far from over. Seems like most guidance is garbage outside of 5 days. Each signal has a chance.

[RogueWaves]

12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I don't have the exact average, but this region definitely see snowflakes a lot more than many other regions.

 Unfortunately even with xmacis there's no way to compile data that includes trace amounts without counting them, so I decided to use last season and then the 2 extreme poster child seasons of 2013-14 & 2011-12. 

Chicago-

2019-20: 61 days with snow (DJF +5.0°)

2013-14: 74 days with snow (DJF -7.6°)

2011-12: 39 days with snow (DJF +6.4°)

Detroit-

2019-20: 77 days with snow (DJF +4.6°)

2013-14: 92 days with snow (DJF -7.1°)

2011-12: 53 days with snow (DJF +5.0°)

I'd gladly embrace 2011-12 as long as I can get kissed full on the lips by 2013-14 later!

[snowcaine]

16 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

ECMWF has been garbage lately. Generally the GFS has been the worse model this time of year in the past, but not this season.

It's funny you mention model quality lately. I've found the GFS to be abysmal too. Oddly enough, the Canadian has been my go-to the last month. 2013-14 was the last winter that I found the Canadian to do really well, so I wonder if they've made changes to the model recently.

[Pascy619]

Definitely looking like a MN storm for later this week. 

[Hoosier]

For the majority of the sub, I don't see a whole lot to be excited about until at least Christmas.  You can rarely shut the door entirely because it is possible to stumble into a snowstorm in the midst of a bad pattern, but yeah, it's not good.

[A-L-E-K]

Lol brutal 

[cyclone77]

[michsnowfreak]

57 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

For the majority of the sub, I don't see a whole lot to be excited about until at least Christmas.  You can rarely shut the door entirely because it is possible to stumble into a snowstorm in the midst of a bad pattern, but yeah, it's not good.

I agree. I still think a stormy Winter with plenty of snow was on tap but a majority of the fun will be January on word. I also don't think the rest of December will be a shutout for the sub but it will not be sustained Winter by any means. I made sure to take pictures of my outdoor decorations in the snow this week just in case our bad December luck of the past few years continues. Supposedly gefs shows strat warming in late December, which is a good sign.

[pondo1000]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree. I still think a stormy Winter with plenty of snow was on tap but a majority of the fun will be January on word. I also don't think the rest of December will be a shutout for the sub but it will not be sustained Winter by any means. I made sure to take pictures of my outdoor decorations in the snow this week just in case our bad December luck of the past few years continues. Supposedly gefs shows strat warming in late December, which is a good sign.

Does anyone have the count on how many frickin times we have seen a sudden stratospheric warming event modeled that NEVER comes to fruition?