Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WestMichigan]

Is the GFS trying to model a clipper at the end of the run?  That would be a nice change if that really happens.

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzzzz

[Cary67]

15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

zzzzzzz

You'll get your 2 week window in March or April. Then we can discuss sun angle and the difficulty in keeping your snow cover

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

You'll get your 2 week window in March or April. Then we can discuss sun angle and the difficulty in keeping your snow cover

something tells me in the 4 months until that time it will not be all zzzz

[StormfanaticInd]

Storm around midmonth could interesting if we can get some blocking 

[weatherbo]

5 hours ago, Cary67 said:

You'll get your 2 week window in March or April. Then we can discuss sun angle and the difficulty in keeping your snow cover

I Hope you don't carry this type of negativity with you daily. 

[cyclone77]

Nice rainer for many of us next weekend on this morning's Euro.  

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

I Hope you don't carry this type of negativity with you daily. 

Its just seasonal negativity. Its easy to be positive when all you need is a fan to blow cold air and it starts snowing

[iluvsnow]

December 4th and the weenie's agitation grows rampant. The Midwest forum going to give Ji and the Mid Atlantic crew a run for their money this season.

[RobertSul]

7 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Its just seasonal negativity. Its easy to be positive when all you need is a fan to blow cold air and it starts snowing

It’s all a matter of perspective. People in downstate Illinois might think you should be more positive because you get double their snowfall in an average year, with colder temperatures to better preserve snowpack. 
 

Truth is, we still have another 3.5 months of workable wintry weather. Meteorological winter just started Tuesday.

[beavis1729]

What I don't think people are understanding is that, even here in far NE IL, our winter climo is horrible.  For people south of here, I don't know how you deal with it.  It's bad enough here.

Next week, highs will be 45-50...that should never happen in Dec.  It should never, ever be nice in DJF, where you walk outside and you can actually feel the warmth of the sun.  But the expected warmth next week is only about 10 degrees above normal here.  That's crazy.  So, unfortunately, these warm temps in the 2nd week of Dec are actually not that unusual.  That's the problem; there's just no margin for error for most of us.  In order to have a decent winter, basically every day needs to be at or below normal.  If our climo was just 5 degrees cooler, everything would be ok.  Precip is fine; temps are the killer.

Even in the depths of winter in January, a high of 40 here is just as common as a high of 20.  That's not good.  Highs near 20 and lows near 0 should be fairly common in winter.  Not saying that needs to be "normal"...but days like that shouldn't be unusual.  Unfortunately, they are.  When your climo is 30/15 even at the coldest time of year, there's no margin for error.  In Fall, when anticipating winter, you think "the days are getting shorter, time for winter'...just like it occurs for summer in May.  In JJA, we know it's going to be warm.  Just want the same idea for cold in DJF.  Seasons in seasons.  It doesn't need to be sub-zero every morning with feet of snow on the ground...but this bare dry ground crap with sun and daytime temps in the 40s is an absolute joke.  What's the point??  The shorter days don't even matter.  It was 60 on Christmas last year, even when it's nearly the shortest day all year. Does it ever feel chilly on June 21st, the longest day of the year?  No.  There needs to be a period in the year when you just know it will be cold and snowy.  Maybe not all of DJF...but at least mid-Dec to mid-Feb.  But there is actually no period at any point during the year when you can count on winter, as high temps of 40+ can occur occasionally here, on any day in Jan. 

It's the Midwest winter gradient that kills us.  Very few of us are on the right side of this gradient.  In N WI, average Jan highs are near 20.  But in central IL, it's near 40...not far as the crow flies.

We should all just stop pretending.  We have winter discussions, long range threads, obs threads, monthly threads, all this anticipation and excitement...but why??  Getting one or two exciting winter storms in a 90-day period is not winter.

It would just be nice, with covid and all of the other crap going on in the world and with daily life, if we could just enjoy some serious deep winter, where you don't have to look at indices and models and hoping for everything to come together.  It should just come together because it's winter.  Hard to get in the holiday spirit without it.  Nothing crazy...just something like 3"+ of snow per week, with 20s in the day and 10 at night...then if an occasional thaw occurs, there's enough residual snow on the ground to handle it before the next snow comes.  Maybe an occasional larger storm to shake things up a bit...and the occasional sub-zero morning...but what we need is consistency.  But it's not meant to be.  Folks are frustrated by this...I can't imagine I'm the only one.

[mississaugasnow]

2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

What I don't think people are understanding is that, even here in far NE IL, our winter climo is horrible.  For people south of here, I don't know how you deal with it.  It's bad enough here.

Next week, highs will be 45-50...that should never happen in Dec.  It should never, ever be nice in DJF, where you walk outside and you can actually feel the warmth of the sun.  But the expected warmth next week is only about 10 degrees above normal here.  That's crazy.  So, unfortunately, these warm temps in the 2nd week of Dec are actually not that unusual.  That's the problem; there's just no margin for error for most of us.  In order to have a decent winter, basically every day needs to be at or below normal.  If our climo was just 5 degrees cooler, everything would be ok.  Precip is fine; temps are the killer.

Even in the depths of winter in January, a high of 40 here is just as common as a high of 20.  That's not good.  Highs near 20 and lows near 0 should be fairly common in winter.  Not saying that needs to be "normal"...but days like that shouldn't be unusual.  Unfortunately, they are.  When your climo is 30/15 even at the coldest time of year, there's no margin for error.  In Fall, when anticipating winter, you think "the days are getting shorter, time for winter'...just like it occurs for summer in May.  In JJA, we know it's going to be warm.  Just want the same idea for cold in DJF.  Seasons in seasons.  It doesn't need to be sub-zero every morning with feet of snow on the ground...but this bare dry ground crap with sun and daytime temps in the 40s is an absolute joke.  What's the point??  The shorter days don't even matter.  It was 60 on Christmas last year, even when it's nearly the shortest day all year. Does it ever feel chilly on June 21st, the longest day of the year?  No.  There needs to be a period in the year when you just know it will be cold and snowy.  Maybe not all of DJF...but at least mid-Dec to mid-Feb.  But there is actually no period at any point during the year when you can count on winter, as high temps of 40+ can occur occasionally here, on any day in Jan. 

It's the Midwest winter gradient that kills us.  Very few of us are on the right side of this gradient.  In N WI, average Jan highs are near 20.  But in central IL, it's near 40...not far as the crow flies.

We should all just stop pretending.  We have winter discussions, long range threads, obs threads, monthly threads, all this anticipation and excitement...but why??  Getting one or two exciting winter storms in a 90-day period is not winter.

It would just be nice, with covid and all of the other crap going on in the world and with daily life, if we could just enjoy some serious deep winter, where you don't have to look at indices and models and hoping for everything to come together.  It should just come together because it's winter.  Hard to get in the holiday spirit without it.  Nothing crazy...just something like 3"+ of snow per week, with 20s in the day and 10 at night...then if an occasional thaw occurs, there's enough residual snow on the ground to handle it before the next snow comes.  Maybe an occasional larger storm to shake things up a bit...and the occasional sub-zero morning...but what we need is consistency.  But it's not meant to be.  Folks are frustrated by this...I can't imagine I'm the only one.

I think this is more banter section. But your right the Lower lakes and lower midwest aren't favourable for sustained cold and snow. We should all know this but we still all like to complain (me included but like I said in banter this winter has checked off the boxes for me and already gets a C no matter what) I want cold and snow N/D/J and start to not care come February, certainly don't care about any snowstorms after March 5-10th 

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

I think this is more banter section. But your right the Lower lakes and lower midwest aren't favourable for sustained cold and snow. We should all know this but we still all like to complain (me included but like I said in banter this winter has checked off the boxes for me and already gets a C no matter what) I want cold and snow N/D/J and start to not care come February, certainly don't care about any snowstorms after March 5-10th 

I actually forgot I wasn't in the banter thread when I read that.  Epic post for December 4.

[Hoosier]

Beavis, it was only 61 at ORD on June 21, 1992.  I would consider that uncomfortably cool for that time of year. But I get what you're saying.  

[OrdIowPitMsp]

@beavis1729 I was always frustrated with the Chicago climo growing up so I moved north. Guess what, we’ve had 19” of snow this season and my backyard is bare just like yours. 

[Stebo]

Lol, nothing like a "Why is Chicago not Mount Rainier or Yellowknife" post on December 4th.

[Snownado]

Honestly you should be thankful Chicago gets as much snow and cold as they do considering they are not very far north.  Chicago is closer to the equator than the North Pole. I imagine most cities close to Chicago's latitude across the world are warmer and less snowy.

 

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, Snownado said:

Honestly you should be thankful Chicago gets as much snow and cold as they do considering they are not very far north.  Chicago is closer to the equator than the North Pole. I imagine most cities close to Chicago's latitude across the world are warmer and less snowy.

 

Yep this is exactly how to look at it.

[Cary67]

4 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Honestly you should be thankful Chicago gets as much snow and cold as they do considering they are not very far north.  Chicago is closer to the equator than the North Pole. I imagine most cities close to Chicago's latitude across the world are warmer and less snowy.

 

Landlocked continental climate between two mountain ranges to funnel cold air in

[IWXwx]

I'm fearful that beavis is going to be a victim of climate change.

 

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

What I don't think people are understanding is that, even here in far NE IL, our winter climo is horrible.  For people south of here, I don't know how you deal with it.  It's bad enough here.

Next week, highs will be 45-50...that should never happen in Dec.  It should never, ever be nice in DJF, where you walk outside and you can actually feel the warmth of the sun.  But the expected warmth next week is only about 10 degrees above normal here.  That's crazy.  So, unfortunately, these warm temps in the 2nd week of Dec are actually not that unusual.  That's the problem; there's just no margin for error for most of us.  In order to have a decent winter, basically every day needs to be at or below normal.  If our climo was just 5 degrees cooler, everything would be ok.  Precip is fine; temps are the killer.

Even in the depths of winter in January, a high of 40 here is just as common as a high of 20.  That's not good.  Highs near 20 and lows near 0 should be fairly common in winter.  Not saying that needs to be "normal"...but days like that shouldn't be unusual.  Unfortunately, they are.  When your climo is 30/15 even at the coldest time of year, there's no margin for error.  In Fall, when anticipating winter, you think "the days are getting shorter, time for winter'...just like it occurs for summer in May.  In JJA, we know it's going to be warm.  Just want the same idea for cold in DJF.  Seasons in seasons.  It doesn't need to be sub-zero every morning with feet of snow on the ground...but this bare dry ground crap with sun and daytime temps in the 40s is an absolute joke.  What's the point??  The shorter days don't even matter.  It was 60 on Christmas last year, even when it's nearly the shortest day all year. Does it ever feel chilly on June 21st, the longest day of the year?  No.  There needs to be a period in the year when you just know it will be cold and snowy.  Maybe not all of DJF...but at least mid-Dec to mid-Feb.  But there is actually no period at any point during the year when you can count on winter, as high temps of 40+ can occur occasionally here, on any day in Jan. 

It's the Midwest winter gradient that kills us.  Very few of us are on the right side of this gradient.  In N WI, average Jan highs are near 20.  But in central IL, it's near 40...not far as the crow flies.

We should all just stop pretending.  We have winter discussions, long range threads, obs threads, monthly threads, all this anticipation and excitement...but why??  Getting one or two exciting winter storms in a 90-day period is not winter.

It would just be nice, with covid and all of the other crap going on in the world and with daily life, if we could just enjoy some serious deep winter, where you don't have to look at indices and models and hoping for everything to come together.  It should just come together because it's winter.  Hard to get in the holiday spirit without it.  Nothing crazy...just something like 3"+ of snow per week, with 20s in the day and 10 at night...then if an occasional thaw occurs, there's enough residual snow on the ground to handle it before the next snow comes.  Maybe an occasional larger storm to shake things up a bit...and the occasional sub-zero morning...but what we need is consistency.  But it's not meant to be.  Folks are frustrated by this...I can't imagine I'm the only one.

The summer equivalent of you would be complaining that at the heart of summer average highs are only in the mid 80s...so its just as easy to see a high of 75 in July as it is to see a high of 95...and that's just not acceptable!!!! And don't get me started on how almost every June features low temps in the 40s. You're right...JJA is always blazing hot wall to wall. 

 

Do you see how that sounds?

 

And why do we have winter threads/discussions!? Why even visit a weather board then if all you like is winter and you don't want to discuss it! But as a fellow cold/snowcover lover, I'm very disappointed in your "whats the point we get 1 or 2 exciting snowstorms" attitude. I thought you didn't care about snowstorms anyway, just cold and snowcover. Barrow (or whatever its called now lol) sounds like your place. kiss any exciting snowstorm ever goodbye...but you'll have snowcover from sept to June lol. The lower Lakes has never been a region of what you're looking for. But considering we see snow off and on from October to May, lol at acting like Chicago gets no winter. Not sure of Chicago's average, but im sure Hoosier has them. But Detroit averages approximately 75 days a year with a trace of more of snowfall, 35 days of measurable snowfall, 50 days of 1"+ snowcover....and 12 days of 90F+. So out of 365 days, 75 see snowflakes and 12 see 90 degrees. We need to stop pretending we have summer!!! (reminder these are facts but this post is also tongue in cheek to show you how it sounds...Winter is my favorite season as you know).

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

I'm fearful that beavis is going to be a victim of climate change.

 

GHD Blizzard I'm coming!

[Snowstorms]

Emotions are running high here. It's only Dec 4 lol.

We should be thankful it still snows. According to my grade 3 teacher back in 2002, snow was going to become a "distant memory" by 2010 due to global warming. Well we've proved him wrong.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, Stebo said:

Lol, nothing like a "Why is Chicago not Mount Rainier or Yellowknife" post on December 4th.

Went to mount rainier in October. One of the most beautiful places in the USA.

[A-L-E-K]

can't believe i almost missed the annual way too early beavis meltdown

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Emotions are running high here. It's only Dec 4 lol.

We should be thankful it still snows. According to my grade 3 teacher back in 2002, snow was going to become a "distant memory" by 2010 due to global warming. Well we've proved him wrong.

Did a teacher ACTUALLY say that to a 3rd grade class!? If so, that's ridiculous to fill kids heads with that at a learning/vulnerable age. Although I remember reading a similar article back in the late 1990s. It's absolutely comical, not only because snowfall (along with precip) has actually increased at many places above 40N, but because a snow season literally spans half the year or more on average from first to last flake. I guess the teacher expected some Armageddon-like transformation in 8 years. The 2010s were the trifecta at Detroit...the wettest, snowiest, and warmest decade on record.

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

can't believe i almost missed the annual way too early beavis meltdown

 

 

It’s a December tradition. Like getting a Christmas tree, or watching the Bears wind down another shithole of a season. 

[slow poke]

I had thought I had seen someone say the last 5 winters in Detroit are the warmest when combined or something like that in recorded history or something like that, I could definitely have this wrong though. Like we’ve all said, snow is only a part of what makes up a winter, cold air is a part of that also and I can definitely see where people could have a legitimate grip about the lack of cold during the past few winters. I was talking to one of my uncles who’s a ice fisherman that lives on Anchor Bay last week about the lack of “safe” ice the past two winters. He thought there was maybe only 2 weeks combined between the past two winters where you could go out safely on good ice. On average you should be able to get out on that ice by mid January through early March,  8 weeks or so per winter. Again every winter is different but the “average “ would probably be about 8 weeks per winter. People upset we don’t have a foot of snow on the ground from December 1st to March 15th south of the 45th Parallel would be equivalent to me complaining all the golf courses in lower Michigan aren’t all open year round, it’s just silly I feel. There’s definitely glass are 1/2 full and glass are 1/2 empty people in this forum, we pretty much know where we all are at in that spectrum and to me that’s what helps make this interesting to read no matter how ridiculous someone’s opinion is lol. 

[Winter Man]

14 hours ago, Snownado said:

Honestly you should be thankful Chicago gets as much snow and cold as they do considering they are not very far north.  Chicago is closer to the equator than the North Pole. I imagine most cities close to Chicago's latitude across the world are warmer and less snowy.

 

Climate change has already taken places below 40° N out of the game in this subforum. The lower Great Lakes region is next.

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

It’s a December tradition. Like getting a Christmas tree, or watching the Bears wind down another shithole of a season.