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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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6 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

It is possible if we get a phased storm. Though we haven't seen a true phased storm in years. I believe 2013-14 featured some spread the wealth type events. Only other possibility is having an active storm track where everyone gets a piece of the pie, albeit in different storms. 

There was a storm in late January 2004 that gave almost a foot of snow to Toronto, and also to NYC. Not very common, I would think.

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7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Without diving into too much detail, both the GEFS and EPS offer some hope after Dec 10th. The current +PNA retrogrades into the EPO region and that offers up our first legitimate cold shot of the season ~Dec 12-14. Would likely feature a rainer around that time frame before things settle into a wintrier pattern thereafter. Eventually due to the background Nina forcing, the ridge makes its way towards the Aleutians/AK which cools most of Canada down as the PV sits overtop. In other words, the current Nino like pattern eventually gives way to a more typical Nina like December around mid-month. There is also increasing chances for Arctic blocking around mid-December as well. I’d say our first winter storm will be ~Dec 15 to Dec 20. 

It's interesting how similar this Fall season has been to that of 1975, another La Nina year, in some ways. Very warm first half of November, cooler conditions late November. There was a big storm in Toronto around December 20th, 1975, according to Environment Canada data.

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Got me thinking.  I'm not even sure it's possible to get a single winter storm to cover the entire subforum, though there have been some big spread the wealth events.

Blizzard of 99 or GHD day 2011 probably the closest you will get.

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46 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

It's interesting how similar this Fall season has been to that of 1975, another La Nina year, in some ways. Very warm first half of November, cooler conditions late November. There was a big storm in Toronto around December 20th, 1975, according to Environment Canada data.

I'll take the next 4 winters after 1975.

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9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Days start getting longer in 18 days. :devilsmiley:

Oddities of oddities, the earliest sunset is around Dec. 07 here at KIND. Yeah the sunrises are still compressing but at least we will stop the bleeding here in less-than-a-handful of days in the back-half.

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2 hours ago, bowtie` said:

Oddities of oddities, the earliest sunset is around Dec. 07 here at KIND. Yeah the sunrises are still compressing but at least we will stop the bleeding here in less-than-a-handful of days in the back-half.

at least you are not over the border in Illinois where the sun sets at around 4:25. Or if you were in Gary, IN the sunset would be 4:19. Sun sets in Indy around 5:20

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