hlcater Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Haven’t had a real December in like a decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 hours ago, WestMichigan said: I thought La Nina years were supposed to be active. This snoozefest needs to go. It's been active... Today is our third storm or weather event, whatever you want to call it, since Nov 22. Potential for a 4th this weekend but it'll likely end up east of the subforum. STJ is quite active right now, surprisingly for a La Nina, while the polar jet remains suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, hlcater said: Haven’t had a real December in like a decade Facts. Although 2013, 2016 and 2017 were pretty legit. Dec 2017 was our coldest Dec since 2000. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 43 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: It's been active... Today is our third storm or weather event, whatever you want to call it, since Nov 22. Potential for a 4th this weekend but it'll likely end up east of the subforum. STJ is quite active right now, surprisingly for a La Nina, while the polar jet remains suppressed. Guess I was referring to places west of you. For example in my area snowfall stats. GRR SINCE JUL 1 0.4 7.3 -6.9 6.8 MKG SINCE JUL 1 1.2 6.2 -5.0 10.9 Precip stats are also on the drier side during this time period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 15 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Guess I was referring to places west of you. For example in my area snowfall stats. GRR SINCE JUL 1 0.4 7.3 -6.9 6.8 MKG SINCE JUL 1 1.2 6.2 -5.0 10.9 Precip stats are also on the drier side during this time period. I agree it hasn't been exceptionally wet or anything. This airmass is putrid. Not conductive for any widespread snow or storms. Without any upper-level blocking, the flow is too progressive for any decent storms. Mostly overrunning events so far, except today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Hmmm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 7 hours ago, hlcater said: Haven’t had a real December in like a decade I'd take Dec 2017 in a heartbeat. Had almost 26" that month. I'm mentally prepared for another sh*tty December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 In the immortal words of Alex and Cyclone77..... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. West wind around 10 mph. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. West wind around 5 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Rea-he-he-healy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Hopefully when this horrific pattern breaks down there's a nice spread-the-wealth event waiting for us all on the other side. If it's a thread-the-needle event it will just make it worse for those who don't get in on it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Rea-he-he-healy Yeah, it has Cincy getting 6" of snow. Fool me once. .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said: I'd take Dec 2017 in a heartbeat. Had almost 26" that month. I'm mentally prepared for another sh*tty December. Decembers in the 2010s were feast or famine at Detroit 2010- 9.3" 2011- 5.7" 2012- 10.6" 2013- 15.5" 2014- 0.1" 2015- 1.3" 2016- 16.8" 2017- 22.5" 2018- 0.5" 2019- 2.7" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Rea-he-he-healy Put your money on the Euro and save yourself some heartache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 3 hours ago, IWXwx said: Put your money on the Euro and save yourself some heartache. If that run pans out grab some popcorn and watch the NE/NYC forums eat their own lmao. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 GFS hr 360... yeah.. gimme that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 10 hours ago, Angrysummons said: Long range models will be over amped and overdone. Simply the fact the Westerly QBO is not allowing for the PV split and the models don't realize it until too late. That said, a thread the needle phasing event becomes more likely as winter progresses and 850's start translating down stream more. The storm track looks good this winter. So, 98-99 analog's in play then. great 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 30 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: GFS hr 360... yeah.. gimme that right now. I will give you that map, but I will take the storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 We'll see how this pans out but certainly looking like a decent Omega block out west. That should keep any moisture running up the eastern seaboard for the next 10 days at least keeping us zzz to a flurry or drizzle. That's fine with me. I'm ready to set the rest of Dec. up for the last week. I think 2020 owes the entire sub a 3-6 blanket the last week of the year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Without diving into too much detail, both the GEFS and EPS offer some hope after Dec 10th. The current +PNA retrogrades into the EPO region and that offers up our first legitimate cold shot of the season ~Dec 12-14. Would likely feature a rainer around that time frame before things settle into a wintrier pattern thereafter. Eventually due to the background Nina forcing, the ridge makes its way towards the Aleutians/AK which cools most of Canada down as the PV sits overtop. In other words, the current Nino like pattern eventually gives way to a more typical Nina like December around mid-month. There is also increasing chances for Arctic blocking around mid-December as well. I’d say our first winter storm will be ~Dec 15 to Dec 20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Without diving into too much detail, both the GEFS and EPS offer some hope after Dec 10th. The current +PNA retrogrades into the EPO region and that offers up our first legitimate cold shot of the season ~Dec 12-14. Would likely feature a rainer around that time frame before things settle into a wintrier pattern thereafter. Eventually due to the background Nina forcing, the ridge makes its way towards the Aleutians/AK which cools most of Canada down as the PV sits overtop. In other words, the current Nino like pattern eventually gives way to a more typical Nina like December around mid-month. There is also increasing chances for Arctic blocking around mid-December as well. I’d say our first winter storm will be ~Dec 15 to Dec 20. Havent you already had a winter storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 35 minutes ago, Snownado said: Havent you already had a winter storm ? I meant to say for the entire sub forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 34 minutes ago, Snownado said: Havent you already had a winter storm ? haha ya, Im not sure if he means one of those classic winter storm watches from Missouri-to WNY and Southern Ontario with a dry powdery 6-10". Ive had one mediocre 3" slop followed by rain (when YYZ recorded 8") and just now had a 6" heavy wet snow from the recent system. I classify it as a winter storm since it now looks like deep winter outside even if it took 24 hours for 6" of snow to fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: I meant to say for the entire sub forum. Got me thinking. I'm not even sure it's possible to get a single winter storm to cover the entire subforum, though there have been some big spread the wealth events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Got me thinking. I'm not even sure it's possible to get a single winter storm to cover the entire subforum, though there have been some big spread the wealth events. I agree. A super clipper would probably leave Iowa high and dry and a gulf low or panhandle hook would either leave Minneapolis in the ice box or give rain to ohio 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, madwx said: I agree. A super clipper would probably leave Iowa high and dry and a gulf low or panhandle hook would either leave Minneapolis in the ice box or give rain to ohio someone would be left out but mid winter gives the best chance for them. seen it a few times where a strong Alberta clippers gives 4-7" across the upper midwest and a gulf low starts coming north around the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Looks like there could be a storm threat around mid month 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 38 minutes ago, madwx said: I agree. A super clipper would probably leave Iowa high and dry and a gulf low or panhandle hook would either leave Minneapolis in the ice box or give rain to ohio I’ll take an ice box if it means the lakes can really freeze up and the ski hills can make more snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Got me thinking. I'm not even sure it's possible to get a single winter storm to cover the entire subforum, though there have been some big spread the wealth events. It is possible if we get a phased storm. Though we haven't seen a true phased storm in years. I believe 2013-14 featured some spread the wealth type events. Only other possibility is having an active storm track where everyone gets a piece of the pie, albeit in different storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I'm all about a Brown Christmas in the Upper Midwest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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