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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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3 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

I thought La Nina years were supposed to be active.  This snoozefest needs to go.

It's been active...

Today is our third storm or weather event, whatever you want to call it, since Nov 22. Potential for a 4th this weekend but it'll likely end up east of the subforum. STJ is quite active right now, surprisingly for a La Nina, while the polar jet remains suppressed. 

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43 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

It's been active...

Today is our third storm or weather event, whatever you want to call it, since Nov 22. Potential for a 4th this weekend but it'll likely end up east of the subforum. STJ is quite active right now, surprisingly for a La Nina, while the polar jet remains suppressed. 

Guess I was referring to places west of you.  For example in my area snowfall stats.

GRR 

SINCE JUL 1      0.4                       7.3   -6.9      6.8

MKG

SINCE JUL 1      1.2                       6.2   -5.0     10.9

 

Precip stats are also on the drier side during this time period.

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15 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Guess I was referring to places west of you.  For example in my area snowfall stats.

GRR 


SINCE JUL 1      0.4                       7.3   -6.9      6.8

MKG


SINCE JUL 1      1.2                       6.2   -5.0     10.9

 

Precip stats are also on the drier side during this time period.

I agree it hasn't been exceptionally wet or anything. This airmass is putrid. Not conductive for any widespread snow or storms. Without any upper-level blocking, the flow is too progressive for any decent storms. Mostly overrunning events so far, except today.

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In the immortal words of Alex and Cyclone77.....

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..

Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. West wind around 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. West wind around 5 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 41.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.
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1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said:

I'd take Dec 2017 in a heartbeat. Had almost 26" that month.
I'm mentally prepared for another sh*tty December.

Decembers in the 2010s were feast or famine at Detroit

2010- 9.3"

2011- 5.7"

2012- 10.6"

2013- 15.5"

2014- 0.1"

2015- 1.3"

2016- 16.8"

2017- 22.5"

2018- 0.5"

2019- 2.7"

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10 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Long range models will be over amped and overdone. Simply the fact the Westerly QBO is not allowing for the PV split and the models don't realize it until too late. That said, a thread the needle phasing event becomes more likely as winter progresses and 850's start translating down stream more. The storm track looks good this winter.

So, 98-99 analog's in play then. great

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We'll see how this pans out but certainly looking like a decent Omega block out west.  That should keep any moisture running up the eastern seaboard for the next 10 days at least keeping us zzz to a flurry or drizzle.  That's fine with me.  I'm ready to set the rest of Dec. up for the last week.  I think 2020 owes the entire sub a 3-6 blanket the last week of the year. :thumbsup: 

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Without diving into too much detail, both the GEFS and EPS offer some hope after Dec 10th. The current +PNA retrogrades into the EPO region and that offers up our first legitimate cold shot of the season ~Dec 12-14. Would likely feature a rainer around that time frame before things settle into a wintrier pattern thereafter. Eventually due to the background Nina forcing, the ridge makes its way towards the Aleutians/AK which cools most of Canada down as the PV sits overtop. In other words, the current Nino like pattern eventually gives way to a more typical Nina like December around mid-month. There is also increasing chances for Arctic blocking around mid-December as well. I’d say our first winter storm will be ~Dec 15 to Dec 20. 

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6 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Without diving into too much detail, both the GEFS and EPS offer some hope after Dec 10th. The current +PNA retrogrades into the EPO region and that offers up our first legitimate cold shot of the season ~Dec 12-14. Would likely feature a rainer around that time frame before things settle into a wintrier pattern thereafter. Eventually due to the background Nina forcing, the ridge makes its way towards the Aleutians/AK which cools most of Canada down as the PV sits overtop. In other words, the current Nino like pattern eventually gives way to a more typical Nina like December around mid-month. There is also increasing chances for Arctic blocking around mid-December as well. I’d say our first winter storm will be ~Dec 15 to Dec 20. 

Havent you already had a winter storm ?

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34 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Havent you already had a winter storm ?

haha ya, Im not sure if he means one of those classic winter storm watches from Missouri-to WNY and Southern Ontario with a dry powdery 6-10". Ive had one mediocre 3" slop followed by rain (when YYZ recorded 8") and just now had a 6" heavy wet snow from the recent system. I classify it as a winter storm since it now looks like deep winter outside even if it took 24 hours for 6" of snow to fall. 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Got me thinking.  I'm not even sure it's possible to get a single winter storm to cover the entire subforum, though there have been some big spread the wealth events.

I agree.  A super clipper would probably leave Iowa high and dry and a gulf low or panhandle hook would either leave Minneapolis in the ice box or give rain to ohio

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1 minute ago, madwx said:

I agree.  A super clipper would probably leave Iowa high and dry and a gulf low or panhandle hook would either leave Minneapolis in the ice box or give rain to ohio

someone would be left out but mid winter gives the best chance for them. seen it a few times where a strong Alberta clippers gives 4-7" across the upper midwest and a gulf low starts coming north around the same time. 

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41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Got me thinking.  I'm not even sure it's possible to get a single winter storm to cover the entire subforum, though there have been some big spread the wealth events.

It is possible if we get a phased storm. Though we haven't seen a true phased storm in years. I believe 2013-14 featured some spread the wealth type events. Only other possibility is having an active storm track where everyone gets a piece of the pie, albeit in different storms. 

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