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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anyone up for some 00z NAM tea leaf reading?

Howdy. The NAM definitely seems to be following the trend of there being a strong system. It's definitely not too far east, as far as I can tell, but I wouldn't call it a great look for you or especially I necessarily. 

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Would not be good.

Much faster with southern stream than Euro and even the GFS.


.

Will be interesting to see if anything substantial evolves from this for Indiana and points east. Definitely cuts against snow climo where places like Madison usually start to get hit now. Maybe some mood flakes or LES for our area.

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That surface low REALLY gets yanked back due to the ULL influence.  It's basically an App runner at first.

Which is why I don't buy all the rain here, storm is in NY state and its raining here? Not a chance especially with most of the critical thicknesses being favorable and the temps at or above 925 being below zero. Would be heavy wet snow.

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13 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Which is why I don't buy all the rain here, storm is in NY state and its raining here? Not a chance especially with most of the critical thicknesses being favorable and the temps at or above 925 being below zero. Would be heavy wet snow.

Would you say the same thing for central ohio too?

 

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Hello all- 

Just signed up. Looking forward to discussing this storm and winter/spring in general. 

Not sure if posting of the individual GEFS ensembles are allowed, however they are very much a mixed bag depending on where you are. Several complete whiffs to the east, a few very nice hits and some in betweens especially in the western Ohio/Central Indiana/Northern KY circular area. 

-The GEFS control run is also much more enthusiastic than the mean. 

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