Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mimillman]

Some solid hits on the Euro ensembles and looks like many of the members are actually further north, so if you believe the -AO/-NAO argument than chances are those come south over the next week? Would rather them be north at this point in time given the pattern than south.

[A-L-E-K]

ready for the 12z runs to get the hype train going

[Cary67]

46 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Some solid hits on the Euro ensembles and looks like many of the members are actually further north, so if you believe the -AO/-NAO argument than chances are those come south over the next week? Would rather them be north at this point in time given the pattern than south.

Will be entering Ukie territory soon. Its performance seems better than most this winter

[Chicago Storm]

Will be entering Ukie territory soon. Its performance seems better than most this winter

It’s probably a close 2nd to the GEM.

This multiple wave period is still 5-9 days out though.


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[A-L-E-K]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

It’s probably a close 2nd to the GEM.

This multiple wave period is still 5-9 days out though.


 

it's a nice change of pace not to be chasing a well timed phase to deliver defo snows from a marginal airmass

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Thanks to "Modoki" everything in this warm earth era. This is a big reason why the GL's have warmed the most of any N Lat region in the CONUS. Seems whether it's a Modoki Nino or Modoki Nina, we get screwed the worst. Pretty soon, we'll be reading about "Modoki Neutral ENSO state". Just you watch. Snowmobile track racing is on life-support in our state. They actually race on ice and temps just refuse to cooperate. Ice sculpture events during "winter-fest" = forget it! Record Ice fishing rescues -> happening!

This is over reaction after a few mild winters. Winters in Detroit have barely warmed the last 100 years. Yea they've warmed since the 70s...just like in the 70s one could definitely say winters are getting colder because they were. Long term....summers are warming more noticeably in the Lakes than winters. 

 

7 hours ago, LansingWeather said:

Me, already bailing back home on the 9th. Would be earlier but I am going on a roadtrip to Utah. I was getting excited watching the trends about a week ago, hopeful on the SSW but I think I know how the winter is going to pan out based on the crap we have been dealt last few years. Warm till Mid feb, a few storms. Then the snow melts with subfreezing highs with due to the sun angle in mid-late feb.

Then cold and snowy March to the beginning of May.

This is not a forecast, it is sure to happen because it seems to happen every year now


On a different note, I took a trip to northern michigan last weekend (up near grayling) and not even their small creeks had any ice on them. Also, they only had 6-8" OTG. Talk a bout crap.

Seems like you can write off December and most of Jan for most of the last 15 years and our only month that was any good has been February. Seems like we are losing that now.

Have a safe trip. Im very confused at this last paragraph though. We've had some excellent Decembers and Januarys the past 15 years. As posted in another thread, Detroit has seen an accumulated total excess of around 102 inches of snow the past 15 winters. That comes out to 6.8 inch average more than normal the past 15 years. its not all been February lol.

 

Look at winter temp trends the past 100 years. Looks a lot different when you don't use the 1970s as baseline.

[Stevo6899]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is over reaction after a few mild winters. Winters in Detroit have barely warmed the last 100 years. Yea they've warmed since the 70s...just like in the 70s one could definitely say winters are getting colder because they were. Long term....summers are warming more noticeably in the Lakes than winters. 

 

Have a safe trip. Im very confused at this last paragraph though. We've had some excellent Decembers and Januarys the past 15 years. As posted in another thread, Detroit has seen an accumulated total excess of around 102 inches of snow the past 15 winters. That comes out to 6.8 inch average more than normal the past 15 years. its not all been February lol.

Sure there's been a few decent storms in december and january but the majority of D and J's have been uneventful. Of course its all relative as you consider 2 inches on the ground for 3 plus weeks exciting. Gonna be almost 4 weeks of nothingness, assuming something delivers in the  jan 26-30 timeframe. Sunny the next 7 days and close to 80 down here in florida. I picked a good winter to skip.

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is over reaction after a few mild winters. Winters in Detroit have barely warmed the last 100 years. Yea they've warmed since the 70s...just like in the 70s one could definitely say winters are getting colder because they were. Long term....summers are warming more noticeably in the Lakes than winters. 

 

Have a safe trip. Im very confused at this last paragraph though. We've had some excellent Decembers and Januarys the past 15 years. As posted in another thread, Detroit has seen an accumulated total excess of around 102 inches of snow the past 15 winters. That comes out to 6.8 inch average more than normal the past 15 years. its not all been February lol.

 

Look at winter temp trends the past 100 years. Looks a lot different when you don't use the 1970s as baseline.

"some" hyperbole in my post perhaps, but the reference to Modoki ENSO states being more common and hostile to SMI is from professional sources, not just my own hunch, lol. Wrt Stevo's post, I'm not a fan of the huge swings from great months to complete dumpster fire months/periods. Like you, I much prefer some steady ground covering snows with temps to retain it. As you say tho, the past 15-ish years have been a mostly snowy and AN snowfall period. Just not liking the current string of downers. No legit Watch to Warn system in nearly 3 years and that was barely qualified in the end. Need to head back to Feb. of 2016 for a double digit storm here.

[michsnowfreak]

41 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

"some" hyperbole in my post perhaps, but the reference to Modoki ENSO states being more common and hostile to SMI is from professional sources, not just my own hunch, lol. Wrt Stevo's post, I'm not a fan of the huge swings from great months to complete dumpster fire months/periods. Like you, I much prefer some steady ground covering snows with temps to retain it. As you say tho, the past 15-ish years have been a mostly snowy and AN snowfall period. Just not liking the current string of downers. No legit Watch to Warn system in nearly 3 years and that was barely qualified in the end. Need to head back to Feb. of 2016 for a double digit storm here.

 I don't disagree. For instance, December saw average snowfall due to several systems but we could not keep it on the ground more than 3 or 4 days each time. Had it not been for the fact that a couple of them were perfectly timed (Dec 16th when I had an outdoor Christmas event in a driving snow, and a perfect Christmas snowstorm),  I would have easily traded my pattern with cyclone or some of Chicago's NW burbs, taking less snowfall in exchange for a period of sustained white.  Everything is relative.  I remember multiple times back in our glory days when local snow weenies would complain if a storm busted despite the fact there was over a foot of snow on the ground. In a zzzz pattern like this a 2" solid snow cover would make a snow weenie happy lol

 

our last double digit snowstorm was Dec 11, 2016, though to be fair we missed double digits by a few tenths of an inch Feb 11, 2018 and again Nov 11, 2019.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Sure there's been a few decent storms in december and january but the majority of D and J's have been uneventful. Of course its all relative as you consider 2 inches on the ground for 3 plus weeks exciting. Gonna be almost 4 weeks of nothingness, assuming something delivers in the  jan 26-30 timeframe. Sunny the next 7 days and close to 80 down here in florida. I picked a good winter to skip.

No question Feb has been our big month but Jan had been pretty solid the last 15 years mostly. December has been very hit or miss, some big hits and big misses. This is easily been the most boring stretch of Winter in my memory. Has it happened before? Yes. However Not since I started following Winter weather patterns. It's not warm, it's not cold, there is no Sun. It's just stagnant with occasional flakes. The last thing you'd expect in a nina.

[Stevo6899]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I don't disagree. For instance, December saw average snowfall due to several systems but we could not keep it on the ground more than 3 or 4 days each time. Had it not been for the fact that a couple of them were perfectly timed (Dec 16th when I had an outdoor Christmas event in a driving snow, and a perfect Christmas snowstorm),  I would have easily traded my pattern with cyclone or some of Chicago's NW burbs, taking less snowfall in exchange for a period of sustained white.  Everything is relative.  I remember multiple times back in our glory days when local snow weenies would complain if a storm busted despite the fact there was over a foot of snow on the ground. In a zzzz pattern like this a 2" solid snow cover would make a snow weenie happy lol

Very rarely do we have more than a foot of snowcover. Any weenie, local or not, would complain if you were forecasted 18-24, and only got a foot or so (GHD), especially east of the snow glacier here in SEMI. At this point, if it aint gonna snow 8+, im fine with a zzzz period like you've had. But as you said, its all relative. 3-6 events don't get me excited anymore, even in a dull winter.

 

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Very rarely do we have more than a foot of snowcover. Any weenie, local or not, would complain if you were forecasted 18-24, and only got a foot or so (GHD), especially east of the snow glacier here in SEMI. At this point, if it aint gonna snow 8+, im fine with a zzzz period like you've had. But as you said, its all relative. 3-6 events don't get me excited anymore, even in a dull winter.

 

Snowcover over a foot is generally rare though we had it in 5 of the 10 winters between 2009-2018. Another example of those good times for me.

[blizzardof96]

The northward propagation of the plains vort ejection is really being limited by the vortex over Northern Ontario which is being held in place by the west based -NAO.

[hawkeye_wx]

15 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

The northward propagation of the plains vort ejection is really being limited by the vortex over Northern Ontario which is being held in place by the west based -NAO.

Yep, the blocking has put the kibosh on the cutter/rain model runs of recent days.

[Spartman]

12z GFS, GDPS, and Euro: All suicide runs

12z GFS:

12z GDPS:

12z Euro:

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro has a wall through the entire period preventing anything from moving up into the lakes.

[Baum]

going to be a long slog until sunday.

[LansingWeather]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Have a safe trip. Im very confused at this last paragraph though. We've had some excellent Decembers and Januarys the past 15 years. As posted in another thread, Detroit has seen an accumulated total excess of around 102 inches of snow the past 15 winters. That comes out to 6.8 inch average more than normal the past 15 years. its not all been February lol.

Maybe you're right, perhaps I am just really negative about winter lately. Just seems like February is always the top month in Lansing, in particular. Decembers have been crap, snows a bit but then just melts.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, blizzardof96 said:

The northward propagation of the plains vort ejection is really being limited by the vortex over Northern Ontario which is being held in place by the west based -NAO.

it seems like this could either help or hurt lol

[Chicago Storm]

My guess the pacific energy consolidates around the last piece of energy while the blocking death rattles.

energy consolidating around energy is always the best.


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[mimillman]

Once again some solid hits on the EPS. E14 anyone?

[WeatherMonger]

4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Once again some solid hits on the EPS. E14 anyone?

03 please, but I'll take my cold rain and like it......

[IWXwx]

The afternoon forecaster at IWX sings an all too familiar tune concerning Sunday-Tuesday:

THE KEY FOR WHETHER THIS BECOMES A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM LOCALLY 
WILL BE IF BLOCKING RELAXES JUST ENOUGH FOR LATER DAMPENING OF THE 
MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. A TYPICAL THREAD THE NEEDLE SET UP THAT 
WE'VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL WINTERS WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AIR TO 
WORK WITH. SO, NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE WITH BROADBRUSH 
MID CHANCE POPS (RAIN & SNOW) IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

[Chicago Storm]

The afternoon forecaster at IWX sings an all too familiar tune concerning Sunday-Tuesday:

THE KEY FOR WHETHER THIS BECOMES A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM LOCALLY WILL BE IF BLOCKING RELAXES JUST ENOUGH FOR LATER DAMPENING OF THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. A TYPICAL THREAD THE NEEDLE SET UP THAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL WINTERS WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. SO, NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE WITH BROADBRUSH MID CHANCE POPS (RAIN & SNOW) IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

The “marginally cold air” part is not correct in this case.


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[IWXwx]

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The “marginally cold air” part is not correct in this case.


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Why do you say that?

[Hoosier]

I think it depends if you're looking at it on the cwa scale or the whole picture.  The cold air certainly looks marginal in the IWX cwa this weekend.

[Chicago Storm]

Why do you say that?

For the first time this season there’s actually going to be a large reservoir of cold air nearby for the multi-wave period in question.


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[Stebo]

The issue the further east you go is the -NAO is creating confluence and bending down the heights in front of the system. We needed a -NAO but not one this massive.

[mimillman]

GFS ensemble members are mostly north. I like where we stand

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

GFS ensemble members are mostly north. I like where we stand

I wish more members were farther south.  It seems like it's been forever since a storm of significance jackpotted I-80 and up into the city, vs areas farther north.  You know this all too well.