Hoosier Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, Spartman said: GDPS, as well. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Yea, the GFS looks terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 So much for the Polar Vortex. This Chas guy apparently has his opinion about next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Canadian 35 degrees on the 27th and the GFS with another 50 rainer GG winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 44 minutes ago, mimillman said: Yea, the GFS looks terrible GDPS caved to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 New Euro shows a nice January soaker for much of the sub for the 25-26th. As much as I'd love to keep the snowpack I'd take that over CAD. At least there's some storminess to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 46 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro shows a nice January soaker for much of the sub for the 25-26th. As much as I'd love to keep the snowpack I'd take that over CAD. At least there's some storminess to watch. So, the Euro was the next to cave to GFS. Torchy on the 25-26th. Not only there are talks of writing off the remainder of this month, but also next month. #SpringisComing Into the long range, CVG will certainly be escaping January still with single-digit snowfall totals. CVG's last single-digit snowfall season was 2011-12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Damn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Handwriting is on the wall folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Handwriting is on the wall folks. Shades of '12 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Shades of '12lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Despite all the head fakes, SSW's, vortex splits, high latitude blocking etc...the one constant you can take from this winter......no matter what the long range models say....persistence rules the day.....sadly. Maybe the deck finally shuffles next winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 32 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: Despite all the head fakes, SSW's, vortex splits, high latitude blocking etc...the one constant you can take from this winter......no matter what the long range models say....persistence rules the day.....sadly. Maybe the deck finally shuffles next winter. The system on the 26th looks like a late Dec. redo. Just no cold air available. Another couple weeks then can call this meteorological winter RIP. Can only hope nuisance snows don't show up late March and April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Now that just about everyone has thrown in the towel, we will finally see a change, maybe. This is also about the same time last year that I remember people saying ""Maybe the deck finally shuffles next Winter" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 models are just having a hard time with the pattern change. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 We're not the only ones scratching our heads.... IWX Office: For early next week, attention will then turn to a progressive pattern aloft, with the opportunity for better moisture return into our area. This would signal mild temperatures owing to southwesterly flow, and possibly a rain event as a surface low tracks through the Midwest. There is a huge spread in temperature solutions on Sunday and Monday that will need to be addressed going forward; aimed for a middle ground at this time. Where. Is. Winter?! && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Frog Town said: We're not the only ones scratching our heads.... IWX Office: For early next week, attention will then turn to a progressive pattern aloft, with the opportunity for better moisture return into our area. This would signal mild temperatures owing to southwesterly flow, and possibly a rain event as a surface low tracks through the Midwest. There is a huge spread in temperature solutions on Sunday and Monday that will need to be addressed going forward; aimed for a middle ground at this time. Where. Is. Winter?! && my weather office counters yours and raises you one: THE ENVELOPE OF FORECAST LOW TRACKS RANGE FROM A PATH NORTHWEST OF US THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO SOUTHEAST OF US THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY (EACH WITH DIFFERENT TIMING). SO, BE WEARY OF ANY PREMATURE SPECULATION OF WHAT, WHEN, AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION MAY FALL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: The system on the 26th looks like a late Dec. redo. Just no cold air available. Another couple weeks then can call this meteorological winter RIP. Can only hope nuisance snows don't show up late March and April I'm already counting on it happening. Our largest snowfall of the season will be on March 23th (channeling some Brian D.). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: The system on the 26th looks like a late Dec. redo. Just no cold air available. Another couple weeks then can call this meteorological winter RIP. Can only hope nuisance snows don't show up late March and April It’s going to happen. They will be our snowiest months, mark these words 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Can't sugarcoat the trends on the ensembles out at the end of their ranges, not good. Hopefully they're rushing things. Either way, if pattern does revert to more hostile, highlights the importance of cashing in with the 25th-26th. I still want to believe that some of the operational runs are being too aggressive with the amped cutter look because it occurs when the west based NAO block is at its strongest. The system coming quickly on the heels of a 1035 mb high overhead and the high being close by during the precip elevates the chance for a zone of freezing rain and sleet if the synoptic system is pretty amped.What's interesting about this winter is that I really wasn't optimistic going in. The unexpected sustained -AO/-NAO gave some hope, but thus far hasn't worked out in a beneficial way. Shows the importance of a good Pacific pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 welcome to the dark side.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 13 hours ago, Spartman said: GDPS, as well. GFS, on the other hand: If Friday night/Saturday morning doesn't come to fruition, we may very well have to wait until at least sometime next month for low temps below 20 degrees. This tweet from BAMWX doesn't sound good. Regardless of what happens, bamwx is a joke lol. I would take them as seriously as jb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 7 hours ago, Spartman said: So, the Euro was the next to cave to GFS. Torchy on the 25-26th. Not only there are talks of writing off the remainder of this month, but also next month. #SpringisComing Into the long range, CVG will certainly be escaping January still with single-digit snowfall totals. CVG's last single-digit snowfall season was 2011-12. Who is writing off next month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Can't sugarcoat the trends on the ensembles out at the end of their ranges, not good. Hopefully they're rushing things. Either way, if pattern does revert to more hostile, highlights the importance of cashing in with the 25th-26th. I still want to believe that some of the operational runs are being too aggressive with the amped cutter look because it occurs when the west based NAO block is at its strongest. The system coming quickly on the heels of a 1035 mb high overhead and the high being close by during the precip elevates the chance for a zone of freezing rain and sleet if the synoptic system is pretty amped. What's interesting about this winter is that I really wasn't optimistic going in. The unexpected sustained -AO/-NAO gave some hope, but thus far hasn't worked out in a beneficial way. Shows the importance of a good Pacific pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk It's unreal how flip floppy and inconsistent the models are. I notice the cfs continues with its frigid February. Isn't the backing off on cold with a still active look actually better for snowstorm chances in our region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 It's unreal how flip floppy and inconsistent the models are. I notice the cfs continues with its frigid February. Isn't the backing off on cold with a still active look actually better for snowstorm chances in our region?The CFS most definitely is not frigid.Weeklies are mild to torchy and monthly is about average.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The CFS most definitely is not frigid. Weeklies are mild to torchy and monthly is about average. . I'm referring to the cfs on weatherbell where you can see 4 different runs a day. Some crazy cold runs, but also with the huge flip flopping run to run it really opens your eyes to how worthless the cfs is outside of regular few week lead time. and even then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 It's unreal how flip floppy and inconsistent the models are. I notice the cfs continues with its frigid February. Isn't the backing off on cold with a still active look actually better for snowstorm chances in our region?I'm only commenting on the end of the EPS and GEFS which have shown unfavorable trends last few runs. It's quite possible they're rushing things, happens in both directions with the pattern out in the extended. The best we can say is that there's still dateline ridging and still NAO blocking, but we need the ridging near AK to stay farther east. It's possible that pattern shown verbatim is active, though with a milder risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 GFS says next weekend ain't over 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: Can't sugarcoat the trends on the ensembles out at the end of their ranges, not good. Hopefully they're rushing things. Either way, if pattern does revert to more hostile, highlights the importance of cashing in with the 25th-26th. I still want to believe that some of the operational runs are being too aggressive with the amped cutter look because it occurs when the west based NAO block is at its strongest. The system coming quickly on the heels of a 1035 mb high overhead and the high being close by during the precip elevates the chance for a zone of freezing rain and sleet if the synoptic system is pretty amped. What's interesting about this winter is that I really wasn't optimistic going in. The unexpected sustained -AO/-NAO gave some hope, but thus far hasn't worked out in a beneficial way. Shows the importance of a good Pacific pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Is the +EPO the poor Pacific pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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