Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mimillman]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

$$$  

 

Upcoming looking p zzzzz again

 

 

Member 18, take it to the bank

[Baum]

^ I'll bank on 12

[pondo1000]

9 minutes ago, Baum said:

^ I'll bank on 12

Greedy SOB! LOL! 

[mimillman]

23 minutes ago, Baum said:

^ I'll bank on 12

Nah 12 doesn't give MSP enough snow

[A-L-E-K]

GFS somehow manages to get worse each run

[Baum]

^

yeah, it's ugly. No way to run a pattern change.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, Baum said:

^

yeah, it's ugly. No way to run a pattern change.

i have read that the models are struggling mightily as they always do when a pattern is changing. 

[Baum]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

i have read that the models are struggling mightily as they always do when a pattern is changing. 

or they decided status quo is the path of least resistance.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, Baum said:

or they decided status quo is the path of least resistance.

when ensembles lose their active look i will worry. its definitely going to get colder. question is who benefits from the snow?

[StormfanaticInd]

No way we escape this pattern without at least one decent snowstorm 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

GFS somehow manages to get worse each run

These are the times that try weather weenies' souls.

[A-L-E-K]

doesn't even have to be snow at this point, just give me something anomalous or interesting, feels like endless 37 degrees with a chance of zzzzz

[mimillman]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

doesn't even have to be snow at this point, just give me something anomalous or interesting, feels like endless 37 degrees with a chance of zzzzz

We got the rain yesterday, stop complaining. It was a godsend.

[Frog Town]

I think I'm suffering from zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz fatigue.  Anyone else feeling this?

[mimillman]

Don't worry., April is coming along with its 42 degrees average temperature and 5 days of melt on contact snowfall.

[pondo1000]

31 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

I think I'm suffering from zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz fatigue.  Anyone else feeling this?

Yes & never have ur zzzzzzz’s lasted this long. Truly. What a crap fest!

[dmc76]

Drought heading to spring?

[mississaugasnow]

The cold air keeps getting pushed. Im intrigued by the lack of Great Lakes ice and I think this will be a year where Lake Erie barely freezes. 

Also starting to notice the later sunset here (33 minutes later now  ) 

[Snowstorms]

4 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

The cold air keeps getting pushed. Im intrigued by the lack of Great Lakes ice and I think this will be a year where Lake Erie barely freezes. 

Also starting to notice the later sunset here (33 minutes later now  ) 

Not the winter I expected. Endless cloudy days with zero precip on top of this stay at home order. You add them together and it equals boredom and depression.

If we go all of Jan without a single snowstorm, I'm all in for Spring. It's Jan 15 and YYZ has yet to go below -10C lol. Just ridiculous at how warm it’s been. 

[Michigander88]

What is everyone's take on this?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-weather-pattern-forecast-january-2021-usa-europe-fa/

[Kitchener poster]

Doesn’t seem like the cold air will catch up to the precipitation this time around. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Not the winter I expected. Endless cloudy days with zero precip on top of this stay at home order. You add them together and it equals boredom and depression.

If we go all of Jan without a single snowstorm, I'm all in for Spring. It's Jan 15 and YYZ has yet to go below -10C lol. Just ridiculous at how warm it’s been. 

Screw Spring lol. Let's have a rockin February lol. Which we just might.  Latest long-term trends show a much colder February then they were, but models can't get tmrw right so who knows. They are still keeping with a wet look too. So that's a good combo if it can come to fruition.

the lack of cold has been insane. The coldest temp at Detroit has been 19 and that was during a snowstorm on Christmas. Then again it hasn't been warm either. A few scattered days in the 40s would make the original warmistas who coined the term "torch" snicker. I guess that's what non stop overcast will do. I cannot recall such a low temp swing over the course of a winter like this one so far.

 

The only thing that's pretty certain is that a much colder air mass definitely seems to be coming. How much snow it produces, who gets the most snow, and how cold it gets are all questions we can't answer.  But hopefully this shakes up the atmosphere and we can start having a little more fun.

[Stebo]

It snowed here most of the day, with no accumulation, in January. Some times just gotta call a shit winter for what it is, shit.

[RCNYILWX]

It's the same thing every winter and considering how the models can't nail down events within 2 days, suggest not to get all worked up over operational runs beyond day 4-5. Looking at the ensembles, see no reason to back off from idea of getting into a favorable stretch for at least a solid event or two.

Still would not rule out the Thursday-Friday overrunning setup from coming back into play. It hinges upon whether northern stream trough digs in too quick and confluence over the region shreds everything south, and I certainly wouldn't bank on the operational models having this nailed down 6 days out.

Best signal in the ensembles is next weekend into early the following week, with a trough ejecting out of the southwest. This is the timeframe when the ensemble mean shows a biggest jump in snowfall, so a bunch of members are contributing to that. Obviously full spectrum of outcomes on the table including suppression, but on the other hand would still think the NAO helps prevent a full fledged warm cutter.

Finally, the most recent ECMWF weeklies came in much less mild than the previous run due to a continuation of Arctic and Atlantic blocking. This winter has certainly been frustrating and I'm not really trying to be overly optimistic, just honest about predictability that far out. If and until the ensembles back off from their active look, I'd again recommend against using operational models to make definitive statements about nothing good happening 5-7+ days out.

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[Ottawa Blizzard]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Screw Spring lol. Let's have a rockin February lol. Which we just might.  Latest long-term trends show a much colder February then they were, but models can't get tmrw right so who knows. They are still keeping with a wet look too. So that's a good combo if it can come to fruition.

the lack of cold has been insane. The coldest temp at Detroit has been 19 and that was during a snowstorm on Christmas. Then again it hasn't been warm either. A few scattered days in the 40s would make the original warmistas who coined the term "torch" snicker. I guess that's what non stop overcast will do. I cannot recall such a low temp swing over the course of a winter like this one so far.

 

The only thing that's pretty certain is that a much colder air mass definitely seems to be coming. How much snow it produces, who gets the most snow, and how cold it gets are all questions we can't answer.  But hopefully this shakes up the atmosphere and we can start having a little more fun.

It seems most of the cold air is over Eurasia at the moment. Have you seen the forecasts for Moscow and Saint Petersburg? They appear to be having their coldest January in a few years. Even Ireland has been cold, relative to what they're used to.

[Stebo]

20 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

It's the same thing every winter and considering how the models can't nail down events within 2 days, suggest not to get all worked up over operational runs beyond day 4-5. Looking at the ensembles, see no reason to back off from idea of getting into a favorable stretch for at least a solid event or two.

Still would not rule out the Thursday-Friday overrunning setup from coming back into play. It hinges upon whether northern stream trough digs in too quick and confluence over the region shreds everything south, and I certainly wouldn't bank on the operational models having this nailed down 6 days out.

Best signal in the ensembles is next weekend into early the following week, with a trough ejecting out of the southwest. This is the timeframe when the ensemble mean shows a biggest jump in snowfall, so a bunch of members are contributing to that. Obviously full spectrum of outcomes on the table including suppression, but on the other hand would still think the NAO helps prevent a full fledged warm cutter.

Finally, the most recent ECMWF weeklies came in much less mild than the previous run due to a continuation of Arctic and Atlantic blocking. This winter has certainly been frustrating and I'm not really trying to be overly optimistic, just honest about predictability that far out. If and until the ensembles back off from their active look, I'd again recommend against using operational models to make definitive statements about nothing good happening 5-7+ days out.

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My only worry is there isn't much cold to work with on this side of the world, I mean there are places north of here with no snow on the ground. Not to say we can't get a storm out of it, hell Texas just had one of the biggest storms on record for them, but it does make things harder.

[RCNYILWX]

My only worry is there isn't much cold to work with on this side of the world, I mean there are places north of here with no snow on the ground. Not to say we can't get a storm out of it, hell Texas just had one of the biggest storms on record for them, but it does make things harder.

Well that's part of the equation, the not having cold air deal, which is certainly the case now, has good ens support in finally changing for the better. The 12z EPS seemed to trend stronger in spiking ridging to and north of AK next week and the GEFS has been favoring that consistently, so that should get cross polar flow going in concert with continued Arctic and Atlantic domain blocking, along with -PNA keeping a steady stream of shortwaves coming ashore.

There's nothing like the black hole AK vortex +++EPO from 2011-12 in the offing and since the ensembles haven't trended away from a colder and active look as the period has gotten closer, not inclined to punt now.

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[michsnowfreak]

55 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

It seems most of the cold air is over Eurasia at the moment. Have you seen the forecasts for Moscow and Saint Petersburg? They appear to be having their coldest January in a few years. Even Ireland has been cold, relative to what they're used to.

 I have not looked at forecasts but I have heard of the record cold going on in Russia

[michsnowfreak]

30 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Well that's part of the equation, the not having cold air deal, which is certainly the case now, has good ens support in finally changing for the better. The 12z EPS seemed to trend stronger in spiking ridging to and north of AK next week and the GEFS has been favoring that consistently, so that should get cross polar flow going in concert with continued Arctic and Atlantic domain blocking, along with -PNA keeping a steady stream of shortwaves coming ashore.

There's nothing like the black hole AK vortex +++EPO from 2011-12 in the offing and since the ensembles haven't trended away from a colder and active look as the period has gotten closer, not inclined to punt now.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Good points. It's pretty much unanimous that colder air is on the way. Add in the fact that talk of this cold/pattern change happened before models even showed it, then of course once models started showing it they rushed it as always, and you have some just saying over and over it's always 10 days away, it's never going to happen, and things like that. 

 

When there's not cold air it can still snow. We had average snowfall in Detroit in December with above average snowfall in Cleveland, all pretty much with no "cold" air to be had.  The coldest days we had seemed to be products of the fresh snow that just fell. The flip side of this is when there is cold there is no guarantee of some big snow fest. However it certainly increases the chances for snow activity in the Great Lakes region and with or without a big storm we can at least have a period of actual "deep Winter" .

 

As for skeptics of the actual cold coming?  The extent of cold that we will see here is unknown, but when you are seeing unanimous support for colder than average anomalies in the dead of Winter, I think it's a safe bet the pattern is changing. Biggest place to look is western Canada. They are going from extreme warm anomalies to extreme cold anomalies in the coming change. If this somehow does not materialize you might as well just disable all weather models and start sticking your fingers out the window to see which way the wind is blowing.

[Stevo6899]

32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Good points. It's pretty much unanimous that colder air is on the way. Add in the fact that talk of this cold/pattern change happened before models even showed it, then of course once models started showing it they rushed it as always, and you have some just saying over and over it's always 10 days away, it's never going to happen, and things like that. 

 

When there's not cold air it can still snow. We had average snowfall in Detroit in December with above average snowfall in Cleveland, all pretty much with no "cold" air to be had.  The coldest days we had seemed to be products of the fresh snow that just fell. The flip side of this is when there is cold there is no guarantee of some big snow fest. However it certainly increases the chances for snow activity in the Great Lakes region and with or without a big storm we can at least have a period of actual "deep Winter" .

 

As for skeptics of the actual cold coming?  The extent of cold that we will see here is unknown, but when you are seeing unanimous support for colder than average anomalies in the dead of Winter, I think it's a safe bet the pattern is changing. Biggest place to look is western Canada. They are going from extreme warm anomalies to extreme cold anomalies in the coming change. If this somehow does not materialize you might as well just disable all weather models and start sticking your fingers out the window to see which way the wind is blowing.

Short version of that....Colder, but average cold is coming. The lack of strong, organized, cross country low pressure systems with deformation band snow this winter is surprising. Running out of winter days to cash in. No legit threats on the horizon. Better likelihood of an earthquake.