Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Frog Town]

For those of us that can't see it, is there sarcasm attached to it??

[pondo1000]

17 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

For those of us that can't see it, is there sarcasm attached to it??

Pretty sure it’s sarcasm. 

[Baum]

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Its going to have to be quite a run from late January till St. Patrick's Day to resuscitate this winter from bad grades

nah. 

[Baum]

53 minutes ago, mimillman said:

the 12z Euro is so exciting!

when does the 18Z GFS roll out?

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Its going to have to be quite a run from late January till St. Patrick's Day to resuscitate this winter from bad grades

Really depends on what individual preferences are.  If we manage 1 huge storm, that will make it a good winter in the eyes of some.

[CheeselandSkies]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Really depends on what individual preferences are.  If we manage 1 huge storm, that will make it a good winter in the eyes of some.

I'm definitely in the "go big or go home" camp. I like stuff that's meteorologically impressive/unusual. Sustained cold/built-up snowpack doesn't do anything for me since I'm not into snowmobiling and the like.

[madwx]

6 hours ago, Spartman said:

12z GFS:

What does it show for the northern half of the subforum?

[cyclone77]

41 minutes ago, madwx said:

What does it show for the northern half of the subforum?

The 12z Euro had a nice clipper for northern WI/UP of MI late next week, and some snow showers and flurries for areas south of that. 

[Frog Town]

Should we be concerned with the 12Z EPS pulling back on some of the cold coming??  Not sure if it's just noise, or if there's more to it.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

21 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Parts of the sub had an epic February in 2019 in a decidedly Nina like pattern (despite that being a weak Nino) without North Atlantic and Arctic blocking. I feel more optimistic too that the pattern can remain favorable for longer for more areas with a decent likelihood of the blocking lingering.

 

 

 

 

That month produced 39” here. It was epic.

[michsnowfreak]

Another example of a gradient nina Feb was 2008.

[dmc76]

8 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Should we be concerned with the 12Z EPS pulling back on some of the cold coming??  Not sure if it's just noise, or if there's more to it.

Sorta. The “change” is getting pushed back. Sound familiar?

[cyclone77]

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, dmc76 said:

Sorta. The “change” is getting pushed back. Sound familiar?

Models often rush changes. "its always 7-10 days away" is the new "torch" for overused weather forum lingo. The magnitude, duration, and extent of the cold is unknown and the sensible weather details will always be up in the air until a few days prior, but i think it's a safe bet to say mid to late January and into February will be the harshest, most active part of winter for our sub.

[slow poke]

51 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Models often rush changes. "its always 7-10 days away" is the new "torch" for overused weather forum lingo. The magnitude, duration, and extent of the cold is unknown and the sensible weather details will always be up in the air until a few days prior, but i think it's a safe bet to say mid to late January and into February will be the harshest, most active part of winter for our sub.

Will be interesting to see if the pattern actually turns colder in February or not. I remember reading a month or so ago that a lot of people thought the cold was coming right after the holidays/early January but we see how that worked out. Now many of them same people are saying late January/early February. Maybe some of those people are snow shovel or snow blower salesman’s that keep calling for the cold that never seems to show up on time and when it does it seems to not hang around long at all. I’m not sure who I feel worse for though, the people that spend hours and hours studying models and making long range weather projections that very very rarely come true or those of us that actually read what they put out and think it will happen. I know you and I are very similar when it comes to long range projections in that after about a week it’s basically 50/50 if they’ll get it correct but I’ll read them anyway a lot of times even though I know they will probably be wrong. If and when the cold shows up in February the days will be getting longer, the sun angle will be a factor and Spring/March will be only weeks out. 

[A-L-E-K]

ride the gfs

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, slow poke said:

Will be interesting to see if the pattern actually turns colder in February or not. I remember reading a month or so ago that a lot of people thought the cold was coming right after the holidays/early January but we see how that worked out. Now many of them same people are saying late January/early February. Maybe some of those people are snow shovel or snow blower salesman’s that keep calling for the cold that never seems to show up on time and when it does it seems to not hang around long at all. I’m not sure who I feel worse for though, the people that spend hours and hours studying models and making long range weather projections that very very rarely come true or those of us that actually read what they put out and think it will happen. I know you and I are very similar when it comes to long range projections in that after about a week it’s basically 50/50 if they’ll get it correct but I’ll read them anyway a lot of times even though I know they will probably be wrong. If and when the cold shows up in February the days will be getting longer, the sun angle will be a factor and Spring/March will be only weeks out. 

 I sort do a mix of looking at ensembles, reading what Mets or other posters have to say, and knowledge of what climo does in certain patterns.  I think sun angle is one of the most over used worries on a weather board.  Late February is when you really start to notice sunshine have an effect on melting snow in borderline temps, but for the most part its grossly an overreaction. I watched very light sugary snow a week before the Winter solstice not stick on the pavement midday despite overcast skies and temperatures below freezing. Also witnessed late April snow stick midday.

 

My gut feeling or whatever you want to call it is that it does turn colder the 2nd half of January. I mean it's not been a torch, it's just been seasonably mild and stagnant. I think the last 10 days of January will be the coldest and in a northwest flow pattern like that you can count on plenty of lake effect snow in the favored spots and probably several clippers or short waves as well. February may see the Nina gradient pattern of cold North and warm South which we have not yet seen this year. Should that be the case the it could be very stormy in the Lakes. I would say February will likely be our biggest snowstorm of the season but also with that gradient pattern you can reintroduce rain and ice into the mix for spots.

[Baum]

I'm now pumped to see "a few flurries" added to my forecasts to add some variance to the day in, day out refrain of "Mostly Cloudy with a high in the low 30"s"

[vortex]

Not a bad look for most in the sub if this were to come to fruition.   
Also good prognostic discussion.  

[WestMichigan]

At this point I'll take my chances with any amount of precip.  Above normal would be a good thing.

[WaryWarren]

Punting 'til February. zzzzzz

[RCNYILWX]

Still looks on track for pattern change late next week and the more favorable pattern continuing beyond that. The EPS seemed to have a few run hiccup and the 12z reverted back to closer to what it had been showing. Pattern change doesn't equal snow for everyone right away but hopefully it gets active enough to have more opportunities for more areas. It no doubt does suck to have this very long boring stretch after an already bad start to the season.

 

Recall that 2018-19 got off to a big start for parts of the sub and then essentially stopped December-mid January then became very active after that point through April, benefitting west and northwestern subforum the most. With bonafide NAO and AO blocking in place this time, and possibly locked in for a while longer from the stratospheric warming event effects, it could be a good period of winter weather. Just have to wait and see.

 

 

 

 

[cyclone77]

Both the op Euro and parallel GFS show a system for the 17-18th period.  Encouraging to see them in agreement in something around that time period.  A glimmer of hope on the horizon?

[A-L-E-K]

Like others, growing more confident in the upcoming nw flow pattern bringing snow, not necessarily big dogs but frequent opportunities for accumulating snow without marginal temps. Generally speaking baroclinic zone layout looking favorable.

[StormfanaticInd]

Mid month period still looks promising 

[michsnowfreak]

This boring period seems a bit over the top, even though boring stretches occur every winter. Hopefully in the end our reward will be an extended period of active wintry weather. Its nice to know that light is at the end of the tunnel, but the much overused zzzzzz has never been more legit than now.

[dmc76]

35 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This boring period seems a bit over the top, even though boring stretches occur every winter. Hopefully in the end our reward will be an extended period of active wintry weather. Its nice to know that light is at the end of the tunnel, but the much overused zzzzzz has never been more legit than now.

It’s not warm. It’s not cold. Little in the way of precipitation. Strange winter

[RCNYILWX]

Like others, growing more confident in the upcoming nw flow pattern bringing snow, not necessarily big dogs but frequent opportunities for accumulating snow without marginal temps. Generally speaking baroclinic zone layout looking favorable.

Looking deeper into the long range, liking the potential to go to more quasi zonal over our region, with a chance for systems to take shape farther south out in the west or high Plains. It's been interesting to note how the GEFS has been decidedly colder out in the longer range (10-15 day), probably a product of the GEFS establishing better cross polar flow with a decent -EPO. Either way a pretty solid look on the ensemble mean with plenty of cold air available on the GEFS and cold enough on the EPS, accompanied by a west based -NAO and a -PNA.  

 

EPS images are top 3 and GEFS are bottom 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Looking deeper into the long range, liking the potential to go to more quasi zonal over our region, with a chance for systems to take shape farther south out in the west or high Plains. It's been interesting to note how the GEFS has been decidedly colder out in the longer range (10-15 day), probably a product of the GEFS establishing better cross polar flow with a decent -EPO. Either way a pretty solid look on the ensemble mean with plenty of cold air available on the GEFS and cold enough on the EPS, accompanied by a west based -NAO and a -PNA.  

 

EPS images are top 3 and GEFS are bottom 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

let's make the lower lakes a bowling alley lol

[Frog Town]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Looking deeper into the long range, liking the potential to go to more quasi zonal over our region, with a chance for systems to take shape farther south out in the west or high Plains. It's been interesting to note how the GEFS has been decidedly colder out in the longer range (10-15 day), probably a product of the GEFS establishing better cross polar flow with a decent -EPO. Either way a pretty solid look on the ensemble mean with plenty of cold air available on the GEFS and cold enough on the EPS, accompanied by a west based -NAO and a -PNA.  

 

EPS images are top 3 and GEFS are bottom 3

 

 

 

 

 

It's absolutely awesome that we have real professionals in here sharing their craft!  Thank You!