Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

7 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

fun thread to read.


.

ban

[A-L-E-K]

Just now, StormfanaticInd said:

I feel pretty confident we will have a white here in Indy

rainer

[StormfanaticInd]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

rainer

Chicago will probably atleast have some snow showers. The pattern after Christmas looks promising though 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

get it

[OrdIowPitMsp]

I like the look along the arctic front next week. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Canadian model...

[StormfanaticInd]

Setup for the end of the year has my attention. Not really understanding the negative vibe. Plenty of potential here folks

[RCNYILWX]

Euro showing the setup we need for Wednesday night into Thursday to work out. Long way to go but nice to see it on this run.

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[WHEATCENT]

i see the EURO has gone ohio rainer idea now just in time for christmas yay

[RogueWaves]

8 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said:

i see the EURO has gone ohio rainer idea now just in time for christmas yay

Wasn't every model a rainer there. At least initially til the front gets through.

[StormfanaticInd]

Euro is a step in the right direction. Chicago gets the goodies on this run

[RCNYILWX]

It remains a thread the needle setup. It's the old need a phase to work out sort of deal, which as we all know went great last winter. That said, the last two runs have had important changes toward increasing potential for a solid event. Most importantly, the northern stream wave is slower and not as strong, which allows the southern stream wave to come up and eventually phase in. 00z EPS is rolling out, so we'll see shortly how much ensemble member support the operational has.

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[StormfanaticInd]

A lot of spread in the ensembles. All bets are off! 

[Spartman]

2 hours ago, WHEATCENT said:

i see the EURO has gone ohio rainer idea now just in time for christmas yay

Oops! December 2014 Grinch storm analog unfolding. 

 

Meanwhile....
The 00z UKMET:

The 00z GDPS:

The 00z GFS:

[RCNYILWX]

A lot of spread in the ensembles. All bets are off! 

Added more stronger SLP members farther south than 18z EPS so roughly 2 clusters within that increasingly large spread. The northern cluster is still favored slightly more, probably tied to the key question of the northern stream short-wave.

Due to the difficulty of getting a proper phase like depicted on the 00z Euro and some of the EPS members, think it's a lower probability outcome but still worth tracking because it's all we got.

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[A-L-E-K]

4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

It remains a thread the needle setup. It's the old need a phase to work out sort of deal, which as we all know went great last winter. That said, the last two runs have had important changes toward increasing potential for a solid event. Most importantly, the northern stream wave is slower and not as strong, which allows the southern stream wave to come up and eventually phase in. 00z EPS is rolling out, so we'll see shortly how much ensemble member support the operational has.

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Given the obvious caveat that phased setups are hard, I think we're making real progress with the wave digging/troughing on the west coast by D3/4 with a few models starting to get that look. If that's a real trend and we avoid cutoff hell, I think chances for an event in the sub go way up. Another minor positive that really only matters if a storm happens but there is actual cold air available for this one if it wraps up.

[RCNYILWX]

Given the obvious caveat that phased setups are hard, I think we're making real progress with the wave digging/troughing on the west coast by D3/4 with a few models starting to get that look. If that's a real trend and we avoid cutoff hell, I think chances for an event in the sub go way up. Another minor positive that really only matters if a storm happens but there is actual cold air available for this one if it wraps up.

Need this post on the potential event thread.

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[StormfanaticInd]

This is starting to look like a negative nao winter

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[pondo1000]

1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

Always 15 days away. These never pan out. 

[Frog Town]

But when they do, they DO

[pondo1000]

7 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

But when they do, they DO

When DO they?

[CheeselandSkies]

1 minute ago, pondo1000 said:

When DO they?

February 2018. Snowed well into April and obliterated chase season (didn't think it could get any worse in that regard, then 2020 happened).

[Frog Town]

3 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

When DO they?

[pondo1000]

1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

Did the years get cut off in the last set? 

[Chicago Storm]

Teleconnections are really not super favorable through the rest of the month and into early Jan.

The PNA regime that has been in place the that past month+ is going to continue, and not be of any help.

Will be a continued pattern that you have to hope for a thread the needle setup, such as the Christmas potential. Otherwise it's more of a pattern that would support a hybrid-like system or continued Northeast/Eastern Lakes potential.

[A-L-E-K]

Sad but can't argue