Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

Best in the game^

[Baum]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Best in the game^

does this line up with Brian D's call for Christmas back on the 4th of July?

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

You want to remember what tracking a potential winter storm is like head over to the nyc forum where they are tracking a potential 15-30 inch storm. Very jealous hoping for a few mood flakes later.

Its a feast or famine climate there. They are always prone to a whopper when the ingredients are just right (though this isn't going to be a 30" storm), and they haven't had one in several years. The last measurable snow in NYC? January 18th. I've tracked several storms here and had 25 days with measurable snow since Jan 18th lol.

[Stevo6899]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its a feast or famine climate there. They are always prone to a whopper when the ingredients are just right (though this isn't going to be a 30" storm), and they haven't had one in several years. The last measurable snow in NYC? January 18th. I've tracked several storms here and had 25 days with measurable snow since Jan 18th lol.

Its been a minute since I posted on here but what a better time than to respond to a josh polishing detroit turd winter post. Its a famine climate in SEMI, where you'll be lucky to get one 10+ plus storm each winter. I think everyone on this board would give up the couple 4-8' yearly storms, perhaps go snow less 2-3 consecutive winters,  in return for that 24' plus storm. Kudos to you for still getting excited for 3-6' storm. I'd guess youre one of the few. Its okay to admit the northeast is the place to be for the ultimate snow weenie. 

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Its been a minute since I posted on here but what a better time than to respond to a josh polishing detroit turd winter post. Its a famine climate in SEMI, where you'll be lucky to get one 10+ plus storm each winter. I think everyone on this board would give up the couple 4-8' yearly storms, perhaps go snow less 2-3 consecutive winters,  in return for that 24' plus storm. Kudos to you for still getting excited for 3-6' storm. I'd guess youre one of the few. Its okay to admit the northeast is the place to be for the ultimate snow weenie. 

Lake Tahoe and other areas say hi.

If you're talking about frequency of big storms in very big cities, then I'd agree that you'd want to be in the northeast.

[BuffaloWeather]

As someone that experiences the big dogs, small dogs, and everything in between. 1000% give me the big dogs. My biggest dog

[Hoosier]

Op GFS is looking a little funky around Christmas.

[dmc76]

Normal people always remembers the big dogs, never the small dogs....

me, personally. I enjoy winter. I’ll take dozens of 5-10” events over one 20” event every 3-4 years and nothing in between. But that’s me. 

[Snowstorms]

29 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Normal people always remembers the big dogs, never the small dogs....

me, personally. I enjoy winter. I’ll take dozens of 5-10” events over one 20” event every 3-4 years and nothing in between. But that’s me. 

NYC's snowfall average has gone way up over the last 20 years. I'm sure it's the same for surrounding areas. There was a time they used to get those 15"+ blizzards every few years but its become a yearly thing now, sometimes twice. So yeah, I'll take that any day over these petty 3-6" events. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Its been a minute since I posted on here but what a better time than to respond to a josh polishing detroit turd winter post. Its a famine climate in SEMI, where you'll be lucky to get one 10+ plus storm each winter. I think everyone on this board would give up the couple 4-8' yearly storms, perhaps go snow less 2-3 consecutive winters,  in return for that 24' plus storm. Kudos to you for still getting excited for 3-6' storm. I'd guess youre one of the few. Its okay to admit the northeast is the place to be for the ultimate snow weenie. 

of course its been a minute since you posted, because you only show up when the northeast gets a big storm, and its been years. I like winter. So yes, harddd pass on an east coast climate south of Boston. Last winter nyc had 2 days with snow on the ground and Philly and DC had 0. lmao. the ultimate snow weenie belongs in a lake snow belt. 

[michsnowfreak]

53 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Normal people always remembers the big dogs, never the small dogs....

me, personally. I enjoy winter. I’ll take dozens of 5-10” events over one 20” event every 3-4 years and nothing in between. But that’s me. 

Agree.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

of course its been a minute since you posted, because you only show up when the northeast gets a big storm, and its been years. I like winter. So yes, harddd pass on an east coast climate south of Boston. Last winter nyc had 2 days with snow on the ground and Philly and DC had 0. lmao. the ultimate snow weenie belongs in a lake snow belt. 

The biggest calendar day snow in NYC in winter 2019-20 was... 2.1".  A good place for big storms but it can't be counted on every winter.  Probably not even in Boston.

[michsnowfreak]

40 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

NYC's snowfall average has gone way up over the last 20 years. I'm sure it's the same for surrounding areas. There was a time they used to get those 15"+ blizzards every few years but its become a yearly thing now, sometimes twice. So yeah, I'll take that any day over these petty 3-6" events. 

NYC hasn't had a measurable snow since Jan 18 and their forum has a thread dedicated to their first trace of snow. Sounds like the ultimate snow weenie lol. They have only had 1 storm of 15"+ since Feb 2011. I see how impatient this board got by a slow start in early December...i just can't see people dealing with that for years at a time just because eventually they will get a big storm. Their average did go up, but so did many other places. Frequency of 6"+ and 10"+ storms went up significantly here as well, so its not all petty 3-6 lol.

 

Since 2011, NYC has had 5 storms of 10"+ and Detroit has had 7 storms of 10"+. 

Detroit 2011-2020

Feb 1/2, 2011- 10.3

Feb 20/21, 2011- 10.2

Jan 1/2, 2014- 10.8

Jan 5/6, 2014- 11.0

Feb 1/2, 2015- 16.7

Dec 11, 2016- 10.7

Feb 9/10, 2018- 10.3

 

NYC 2011-2020

Jan 26/27, 2011- 19.0

Feb 9, 2013- 11.4

Jan 21/22, 2014- 11.5

Feb 14, 2014- 12.5

Jan 23/24, 2016- 27.5

[Stevo6899]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

of course its been a minute since you posted, because you only show up when the northeast gets a big storm, and its been years. I like winter. So yes, harddd pass on an east coast climate south of Boston. Last winter nyc had 2 days with snow on the ground and Philly and DC had 0. lmao. the ultimate snow weenie belongs in a lake snow belt. 

We've had this discussion many times. Only system snow gets my motor running. A true weather weenie would never take our climate over the northeast. I still dont get your obsession with crusty, yellow snowcover. I usually browse the site once a week in the winter. Nobody else will call you out on your turd polishing posts so I logged in lol. Everytime the northeast is about to get a good storm, you turd polish our awesome climate. It grinds my gears.I enjoyed these weather forums for awhile but the arrogance of the likes of the almighty weather god chicago storm and a few others turned me off. Hope all is well with you and i wish you good health josh ❤.

[michsnowfreak]

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The biggest calendar day snow in NYC in winter 2019-20 was... 2.1".  A good place for big storms but it can't be counted on every winter.  Probably not even in Boston.

I frequently talk on Facebook with someone from Long Island, hes a fellow snow weenie.  Actually met him on the weather boards many years ago, but I don't think he posts here anymore.  Just as we are accustomed to our Great Lakes climate, he is accustomed to the East Coast climate. He would prefer frequent snow over big storms because he's a winter/cold lover. its all about preference.  The total snow last Winter was 4.8" and Each time it snowed it turned immediately to rain so while officially in the books New York City went down with 2 days of snow on the ground last Winter they weren't even 2 full days. Boston is much better than New York City but even there is a bit feast/famine, just less extreme. Worcester on into Northern New England is where its at. Just like our lakes snow belts. 

 

Speaking of snow belts... It is just crazy to see that there is bare ground in much of the UP still. Obviously snows will be coming but what Im wondering is will it be enough to negate the bad start from a depth perspective.  I consider mid February to early March the best time to go up North to see epic snow depths. 

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

In grasping at straws mode, but just looked at the 12z EPS, and heading into Christmas Eve and Day it does have a pretty interesting look, with a frigid cold trough dumping into the Plains and ridging out ahead into the east though still with a -NAO signal.

Surface pressure anomaly even hints at a surface trough over the southern Plains lifting into the lakes and an expansive high over the northern and central Plains. A few of the individual members as expected from the above hint at some potential in the region during that timeframe.

00z run wasn't too different so we'll see if any continuity develops in that timeframe. Also GEFS not crazy far off but not as potentially interesting as the EPS. While we could do a lot worse than that modeled pattern, need to get it within 10 days. The hope is that *if* a system does develop in that timeframe, the -NAO could help prevent warm cutter.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

 It does seem to all the ensembles have storminess around Christmas. Get ready for model mania.

[michsnowfreak]

56 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

We've had this discussion many times. Only system snow gets my motor running. A true weather weenie would never take our climate over the northeast. I still dont get your obsession with crusty, yellow snowcover. I usually browse the site once a week in the winter. Nobody else will call you out on your turd polishing posts so I logged in lol. Everytime the northeast is about to get a good storm, you turd polish our awesome climate. It grinds my gears.I enjoyed these weather forums for awhile but the arrogance of the likes of the almighty weather god chicago storm and a few others turned me off. Hope all is well with you and i wish you good health josh ❤.

Just as it grinds my gears when you act as though all we get are 3-6 events, esp when the last decade has been great for 6+ and 10+ events. Maybe the slight increase in avg temperature is just what dr ordered for these to become more commonplace. a few bigger storms and a few less days of snowcover may be our future, who knows. Year round precipitation and snowfall has increased. im doing fine, good health to you as well.

[RCNYILWX]

 It does seem to all the ensembles have storminess around Christmas. Get ready for model mania.

Euro ensemble still with a reasonably solid look around that time and even some individual member support. Risk there is the ridging out ahead, and any system favoring far north/northwest sub. However, the smoothed out ensemble mean isn't going to do a good job picking up the influence of the -NAO and its tendency to limit how far north/west systems can track. This is despite the ensemble mean showing a strong signal of a -NAO and the teleconnection chart from the 12z run backing that up.
@Hoosier are we allowed to post images from WeatherBell on here? I could post some visuals to illustrate better if I can.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Spartman]

From Judah:

From Michael Ventrice:

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Euro ensemble still with a reasonably solid look around that time and even some individual member support. Risk there is the ridging out ahead, and any system favoring far north/northwest sub. However, the smoothed out ensemble mean isn't going to do a good job picking up the influence of the -NAO and its tendency to limit how far north/west systems can track. This is despite the ensemble mean showing a strong signal of a -NAO and the teleconnection chart from the 12z run backing that up.
@Hoosier are we allowed to post images from WeatherBell on here? I could post some visuals to illustrate better if I can.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Go ahead

[StormfanaticInd]

44 minutes ago, Spartman said:

From Judah:

From Michael Ventrice:

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

As someone that experiences the big dogs, small dogs, and everything in between. 1000% give me the big dogs. My biggest dog

I am just seeing this picture now. That's amazing. December 2001? Of course big dogs are the best, but if you have to choose between  a steady diet of small and medium dogs every Winter versus a big dog every several years with potentially very little snow in between, consistency wins for me. My biggest dog is my favorite storm even though it was not the most ferocious or blizzardy of storms I've experienced. Your climate is great because you get the big storms from the Lake and sometimes the ocean, but you also get all the small and medium sized storms we get. Only downfall is your thaw/torch potential cutting down on snowpack. You may even make a C- on beavis scale lol

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

the Mets acting like the models.

 

fwiw cfs ensembles are run daily and can have insane run to run changes.

[Gino27]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I am just seeing this picture now. That's amazing. December 2001? Of course big dogs are the best, but if you have to choose between  a steady diet of small and medium dogs every Winter versus a big dog every several years with potentially very little snow in between, consistency wins for me. My biggest dog is my favorite storm even though it was not the most ferocious or blizzardy of storms I've experienced. Your climate is great because you get the big storms from the Lake and sometimes the ocean, but you also get all the small and medium sized storms we get. Only downfall is your thaw/torch potential cutting down on snowpack. You may even make a C- on beavis scale lol

Could be my climate where I get small dogs at the consistency of big dogs. Coming up on 10 years since my last 10+.

[BuffaloWeather]

59 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I am just seeing this picture now. That's amazing. December 2001? Of course big dogs are the best, but if you have to choose between  a steady diet of small and medium dogs every Winter versus a big dog every several years with potentially very little snow in between, consistency wins for me. My biggest dog is my favorite storm even though it was not the most ferocious or blizzardy of storms I've experienced. Your climate is great because you get the big storms from the Lake and sometimes the ocean, but you also get all the small and medium sized storms we get. Only downfall is your thaw/torch potential cutting down on snowpack. You may even make a C- on beavis scale lol

Nov 2014 88.5" of snow in 3 days. Finished with 212.8" that year.

[michsnowfreak]

32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Nov 2014 88.5" of snow in 3 days. Finished with 212.8" that year.

Same winter as my big dog (17" Feb 1/2, 2015). A record amt of 6-12" storms the past decade, so no complaints...but exceeding a foot in a single storm is exciting stuff as its not common.

[hlcater]

Whew the long range is not looking particularly impressive at all. It is highly progressive which is nice, but it's flooded with a ton of mild air. Gonna have to hope that the storm signal Dec 23-24th materializes and is snow for most. 

[Cary67]

3 hours ago, Spartman said:

From Judah:

From Michael Ventrice:

Throwing darts

[Baum]

1 hour ago, hlcater said:

Whew the long range is not looking particularly impressive at all. It is highly progressive which is nice, but it's flooded with a ton of mild air. Gonna have to hope that the storm signal Dec 23-24th materializes and is snow for most. 

ban him.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

Throwing darts

He really is, all we hear is SSW is coming from him until it happens then he congratulations himself.