WestMichigan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I’d settle for cold temps and a west wind right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2010/2011 featured a -nao and we know what happened that winter. Definitely Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Zzzzzz 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Zzzzzz Have faith. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 hours ago, Angrysummons said: There is potential for a snowstorm in the OV/lakes next week, but the upper level trough will have to be more energetic than it is now. Not happening. Lead pattern out ahead of the storm supports a suppressed track. If the s/w can slow down considerably, we can have better phasing with the northern stream as it comes on shore a bit too late. Only extreme southern Ohio has a shot at some snow. This is going to be a NE special, almost like a December 2010 redux. I hope we get a chance after Dec 18. Even then I don't see any good reason to be optimistic as the flow is too progressive due to lack of blocking on the Pacific side. This December has been one of the worst in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Without phasing, there is no snowstorm anywhere. A problem the globals are having, is trying to do both. A progressive sheared out look is a non snowstorm outside some low accums from the ull. I agree. We haven't had a phased storm in years. I can't seem to understand why it's been so difficult to achieve that lately. Should be a nice storm for the Mid-Atlantic and NE even if it doesn't phase as it'll blow up once it hits the warm Atlantic waters. Our best opportunity is between Dec 18 and Dec 25 as the block rotates and a small ridge builds in the SE. The PV in Alaska is killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 0z gefs ens for storm next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 No real cold, no real snow chances outside marginal and localized thread the needle setups. Unless you're into tracking nor Easter's this pattern is piss 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: No real cold, no real snow chances outside marginal and localized thread the needle setups. Unless you're into tracking nor Easter's this pattern is piss Yep at least for our area. Maybe lower OV and far eastern parts of subforum could receive some action. Mid Atlantic and NE could be winners in this interesting pseudo El Nino pattern in a moderate La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 zzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I decided to sign up for weatherbell, at least for the Winter. Such a cool website with so many things to play with lol. Having access to so much more has enhanced how ridiculously models change from run to run. But the idea of a much colder January than December seems extremely likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 You want to remember what tracking a potential winter storm is like head over to the nyc forum where they are tracking a potential 15-30 inch storm. Very jealous hoping for a few mood flakes later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS ensembles continue to slowly tick west with the big NE storm next week. I might be able to sneak in a few inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: You want to remember what tracking a potential winter storm is like head over to the nyc forum where they are tracking a potential 15-30 inch storm. Very jealous hoping for a few mood flakes later. Yeah that's a classic Nor'Easter. Baller storm as modeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: You want to remember what tracking a potential winter storm is like head over to the nyc forum where they are tracking a potential 15-30 inch storm. Very jealous hoping for a few mood flakes later. I don't want to remember, I want to actually get to do it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: You want to remember what tracking a potential winter storm is like head over to the nyc forum where they are tracking a potential 15-30 inch storm. Very jealous hoping for a few mood flakes later. This may be their time until the southeast ridge comes calling later in Jan/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, McHenrySnow said: I don't want to remember, I want to actually get to do it. you just did. and it missed you to the north leaving you with backside slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: This may be their time until the southeast ridge comes calling later in Jan/Feb. Yeah gotta remember 10-11 they had a boxing day storm in NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: This may be their time until the southeast ridge comes calling later in Jan/Feb. If it's like the second half of 1984-85, I'll gladly take it. 52" fell in Toronto from Jan-Apr 1985 and it was cold. I believe >30" fell in Chicago as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Storm is possible Christmas week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Northeast is going to get slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Not if this seasons trend continue. Outside of the GFS, who "slams" them???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: If it's like the trends with our storms, it will trend down to like 8-14". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I think my area might be able to squeeze out 2-3in of snow before the transfer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Trends need to be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: I think my area might be able to squeeze out 2-3in of snow before the transfer to the coast I will likely get screwed by the transfer and only pick up a dusting. Unless of course there's a big time trend either east, or west in which I get the edge of the main event or the pre-transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, Gino27 said: I will likely get screwed by the transfer and only pick up a dusting. Unless of course there's a big time trend either east, or west in which I get the edge of the main event or the pre-transfer. Sometimes we do good in transfer situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 hours ago, Angrysummons said: lol, that map is worthless. What on the upper level map supports anywhere close to that??? Too progressive. It shows that is why models suck in general. Jelly^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Sometimes we do good in transfer situations With something like this I'd much rather be where you are. Lots of these systems leave a dead zone from about I-71 to Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 In grasping at straws mode, but just looked at the 12z EPS, and heading into Christmas Eve and Day it does have a pretty interesting look, with a frigid cold trough dumping into the Plains and ridging out ahead into the east though still with a -NAO signal. Surface pressure anomaly even hints at a surface trough over the southern Plains lifting into the lakes and an expansive high over the northern and central Plains. A few of the individual members as expected from the above hint at some potential in the region during that timeframe. 00z run wasn't too different so we'll see if any continuity develops in that timeframe. Also GEFS not crazy far off but not as potentially interesting as the EPS. While we could do a lot worse than that modeled pattern, need to get it within 10 days. The hope is that *if* a system does develop in that timeframe, the -NAO could help prevent warm cutter. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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