JoMo Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 Up to 2" as far east as Tulsa tomorrow. Quote 241 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 ...Additional Snowfall Forecast Tuesday... OKZ054-059-060-064>066-151000- /O.NEW.KTSA.WW.Y.0009.201215T1700Z-201216T0300Z/ Osage-Pawnee-Tulsa-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee- Including the cities of Pawhuska, Pawnee, Tulsa, Sapulpa, Okemah, and Okmulgee 241 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Light to moderate snow is expected to push into northeast Oklahoma mid to late morning Tuesday and continue into Tuesday evening as a low pressure system moves eastward through the region. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Big ole slog of cold Arctic air for Christmas on the 12z GFS and Canadian this morning. Brrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, JoMo said: Big ole slog of cold Arctic air for Christmas on the 12z GFS and Canadian this morning. Brrr. If I can't get a white Christmas, then give me a cold one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 hours ago, JoMo said: Big ole slog of cold Arctic air for Christmas on the 12z GFS and Canadian this morning. Brrr. Man I hope so! I see upper 50's creeping in the forecast, a cold Christmas would be so awesome and welcome for a change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Snowing in Tulsa again!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 55 minutes ago, ouamber said: Snowing in Tulsa again!! This!! It's very pretty, nothing too heavy, but definitely not just "flurries". It's enough up here in Owasso to turn the melted patches light again, and the cars and roofs white again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 All I'm going to say about Christmas 10 days out is this.... Cold Air....CHECK Storm system coming through the plains...CHECK Now if we can just get that system to come south and slow up, we'd be in business. A man can dream about a white Christmas, but even some flurries would be mood setting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Had a sugary snow here in Joplin for a few hours, dusting everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Had a sugary snow here in Joplin for a few hours, dusting everything. Saw a few flurries walking the beast about 40 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 And Christmas Eve storm is back on the GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It’s almost as if the 00Z GFS read my last post... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I'm reasonably happy right now with the Christmas forecast. We've got very cold air making it's way down and a storm system swinging through. By that logic, the "hard part" is out of the way. Now we just need some small adjustments to make snow on Christmas Eve/Christmas a reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Looks like CPC is not sold on that cold air at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 On the 18z GFS, the cold hits on the 24th but quickly pushes off to the east. Still cold on Christmas morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I'm reviving this statistical analysis I did last season to highlight how insane the snow drought here in NE OK was for those 5 seasons, but have updated it to reflect the past few days. I took the total snowfall from every season in 5 year intervals dating back to 1950. 1950/1951 - 1954/1955- 48.3 in 1955/1956 - 1959/1960- 64 in 1960/1961 - 1964/1965- 32.4 in 1965/1966 - 1969/1970- 60.6 in 1970/1971 - 1974/1975- 37.6 in 1975/1976 - 1979/1980- 48.2 in 1980/1981 - 1984/1985- 34 in 1985/1986 - 1989/1990- 57.6 in 1990/1991 - 1994/1995- 41.7 in 1995/1996 - 1999/2000- 37.2 in 2000/2001 - 2004/2005- 55.1 in 2005/2006 - 2009/2010- 61 in 2010/2011 - 2014/2015- 52.4 in 2015/2016 - 2019/2020- 11.8 in 2020/2021- Present- 5.2 in In just a matter of 3 days, we had almost half as much snow as we did in the past 5 seasons combined! We average 45.85 inches every 5 seasons, so before the crazy snow drought, we were overperforming the previous 15 years! Now that we got the monkey off our back, I'm confident in a return to normal from here on out, but we shall see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 Stark difference between the 06z GFS and 00z Euro last night for temps on Christmas. Highs in the teens and 20's vs highs in the 40's and 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 Interesting 12z GEM run this morning. Clips portions of the area on Christmas. Splits ways with the GFS at day 5 or 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Nothing super exciting on the 12z Euro. It’s back to showing cold on the 24th and 25th but pushes to the east pretty quickly. No precip to speak of at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Looks like our chances for a Christmas miracle are slim and dwindling. 18z GFS does have a nice storm on the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 Surprise on the 00z Euro. Following the German ICON solution with a more southern system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 8 hours ago, JoMo said: Surprise on the 00z Euro. Following the German ICON solution with a more southern system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 No dice on the 12z GFS and the 12z ICON changed back to the GFS'ish look. Canadian went more southern this run though. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 32 minutes ago, JoMo said: No dice on the 12z GFS and the 12z ICON changed back to the GFS'ish look. Canadian went more southern this run though. Hmm. There was a comment in one of the other forums about the 12z NAM bringing the storm onshore further south into Central CA. Not sure if that matters any at this point but worth noting. It seems like there are still a handful of different possible scenarios on the table. Would like to see the 12zEuro continue its trend from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 My gut is a lot of these systems this winter will be more south. Been the trend for awhile now. Could be our yr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Gfs isn’t showing it on simulated precip, but that’s looking like a New Year’s Eve(give or take a day) ice storm given those near 32 degree temps and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Snow looking good for K.C. area before and after New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 17 hours ago, StormChazer said: Gfs isn’t showing it on simulated precip, but that’s looking like a New Year’s Eve(give or take a day) ice storm given those near 32 degree temps and rain. Latest 12Z GFS supporting this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Should be another one after that as well....... It does look interesting around New Years, pending temps which will probably be marginal again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, JoMo said: Should be another one after that as well....... Choo Choo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The pattern is definitely favorable this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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