NWAflizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It is really coming down here again. Bet we end with at least 6. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 So the Tues-Thurs or so storm is more difficult to discern. The initial round on Tues/Tues night is pretty clear cut but after that, it gets confusing due to differing model solutions on how the trough forms or behaves. The farther south and east you go, the greater the amounts is pretty clear. I think the NAM is probably the farthest northwest so far in this morning's model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Snow ending here with the sun trying to peek out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Snow ending here with the sun trying to peek out. Deep snow pack, arctic air, and clearing skies, how low can we go? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 TSA on the next storm.(includes .2 in for Today's snow in Tulsa, and .9 in NW AR, so subtract that.) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, MUWX said: Deep snow pack, arctic air, and clearing skies, how low can we go? Seriously! if clouds don’t move in, we might hit -15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, StormChazer said: TSA on the next storm.(includes .2 in for Today's snow in Tulsa, and .9 in NW AR, so subtract that.) Another 4-6 would be nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Seriously! if clouds don’t move in, we might hit -15. TSA touches on this, says there's a chance we really bottom out. The snow is finally winding down across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the system continues to push off to the east and northeast. The latest mesoanalysis and radar imagery continues to suggest a little bit of enhanced frontogenetical banding continuing over northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Locally moderate to heavy snowfall continues to be reported at this time. An additional inch of snow will be possible this morning through early this afternoon across far eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Behind this wave of snow, the clouds are breaking with mostly clear skies across much of central and southern Oklahoma with clearing skies moving into eastern Oklahoma. This clearing is expected to be short lived before clouds move in later this afternoon and evening. There is still some uncertainty in terms of cloud cover for this evening and overnight. If clouds scatter out or clear, temperatures will hit rock bottom tonight especially since winds will be light. AKA tonight will potentially be a perfect situation for intense radiational cooling with temperatures possibly lower than currently forecast. Confidence, however is not high enough at this time to adjust temperatures overnight from the previous forecast. Trends will continue to be monitored. The next wave of snow moves in by late morning or early afternoon tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Little Rock 3am discussion mentions 20:1 ratios here. Observed snow:liquid ratios by midnight have ranged from 10:1 to nearly 20:1 across the central into NWRN AR...with a bit lower ratios further south due to the added sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Guess we have a few flakes to go...More redevelopment W of Tulsa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Guess we have a few flakes to go...More redevelopment W of Tulsa. Keep it coming! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Man, most 00z models really missed on this fairly significant amount of wrap around snow in KS/MO/OK, im not exactly sure how much it'll amount to as far as accumulation, but this band is quite large and really nothing besides yesterday's 12z NAM had picked up on this (the 18z/00z backed off). Current hi-res models appear to be doing anywhere from modest to very poor in handling it. Hi-res models generally stink with snow, sometimes they can sniff out subtle things before globals but ouch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Man the snow really picked up and has been going good here again for the last hour! Yea for surely this snow drought is finally over lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Man, most 00z models really missed on this fairly significant amount of wrap around snow in KS/MO/OK, im not exactly sure how much it'll amount to as far as accumulation, but this band is quite large and really nothing besides yesterday's 12z NAM had picked up on this (the 18z/00z backed off). Current hi-res models appear to be doing anywhere from modest to very poor in handling it. Hi-res models generally stink with snow, sometimes they can sniff out subtle things before globals but ouch. Yeah, it's almost noon and we've got light snow still forming to the west of Tulsa. Definitely not something most of the models picked up on at all... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Man, most 00z models really missed on this fairly significant amount of wrap around snow in KS/MO/OK, im not exactly sure how much it'll amount to as far as accumulation, but this band is quite large and really nothing besides yesterday's 12z NAM had picked up on this (the 18z/00z backed off). Current hi-res models appear to be doing anywhere from modest to very poor in handling it. Hi-res models generally stink with snow, sometimes they can sniff out subtle things before globals but ouch. Light steady snow here. About a half inch down likely going to pull 1 to 1.5 out of it. Nice snow growth a times so ratios most be decent. Nice surprise up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Have had off and on snow all morning around Wichita as well. Not sure on accumulation since so much snow already on ground, but a guess is 0.5-1". If I recall only models that picked up on this was NAM & RAP but could be mistaken. Has been slowly weakening but very back edge west of Wichita is starting to pick up again, which was actually picked up on the 15Z RAP IIRC. For a moment, it was snowing with sun peaking through clouds which was cool to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 We have close to 5" of snow and we may end up with 6" as lit looks like the last bit coming up from Arkansas is moderate in appearance to the radar . I am one happy snow loving nut 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Sunny as can be in Okc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Here is a picture from this morning. We had around 4 then. I would say we have added at least 1.5 since. Sorry for the low quality. It was taken early. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Current Temp per my Davis weather station is a toasty 1 degree . It was -1 this morning . I think the NWS's Springfield forecast high of 7 degrees isn't going to happen. So how low could it get tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, RocketWX said: Have had off and on snow all morning around Wichita as well. Not sure on accumulation since so much snow already on ground, but a guess is 0.5-1". If I recall only models that picked up on this was NAM & RAP but could be mistaken. Has been slowly weakening but very back edge west of Wichita is starting to pick up again, which was actually picked up on the 15Z RAP IIRC. For a moment, it was snowing with sun peaking through clouds which was cool to see. Picked up another half-inch in the last six hours. Officially 4" on the ground here in Wichita. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 May have a decent band about to come into Tulsa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just measured again. 6.5” in Bentonville. Definitely not an official measurement. But I found quite a few spots at that depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Seeing some reports that NE Oklahoma is going to start rolling blackouts this afternoon. Edit: Miami is without power now. Hopefully unrelated, A large portion of republic is also without power currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12z Euro/GFS really backing off on snow totals for tomorrow/Wednesday storm. Hi-res models are generally higher, but disagree on exact location on heavier band. I think this one will end up with a much more narrow area of good snows compared to yesterday/today. I think most should expect 2-4", with isolated 6-8" possible if the hi-res models are right with a heavier band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I can confirm it's snowing again in NW Tulsa! This is nice, but I live in a super old house without central heat. My furnace can't keep up! LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This must be the Grand Finally" as big flakes coming down now . Couple more hours like this and we will reach 6" easily . NWS adjusted tonight's low temp from -1 to -5 below . I'm thinking it will be more like -10 myself . Record lows tonight anybody? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 More outages now. Looks like parts of Springfield are starting to go down now based on the City utility website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Parts of Okc are loosing power as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 SN -4F, closing in on 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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