Wx 24/7 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Local tv met this morning claiming that we will be getting rain this weekend with a few flakes of snow mixed in, especially in NW AR. It's not the storm of the century, but come on. Maybe not much accumulation here but looks like there will be plenty of flakes flying unless I am missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Ok thanks, all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Local tv met this morning claiming that we will be getting rain this weekend with a few flakes of snow mixed in, especially in NW AR. It's not the storm of the century, but come on. Maybe not much accumulation here but looks like there will be plenty of flakes flying unless I am missing something. Interesting. Good to see you back Wx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Local tv met this morning claiming that we will be getting rain this weekend with a few flakes of snow mixed in, especially in NW AR. It's not the storm of the century, but come on. Maybe not much accumulation here but looks like there will be plenty of flakes flying unless I am missing something. I think all the local Mets are playing this really really safe. After 7 years of bust after bust after bust, they’re just not going to jump with confidence on this stuff. They’d rather be surprised than get people’s hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Yep, one of the TV’s mets last night had accumulations of a dusting to 5 inches. They typically don’t want to predict accumulation totals until it’s literally falling from the sky. All I care about is that we end the 7 year drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Yep, one of the TV’s mets last night had accumulations of a dusting to 5 inches. They typically don’t want to predict accumulation totals until it’s literally falling from the sky. All I care about is that we end the 7 year drought. Yup, Mike Collier had that as his prediction here in Tulsa. Talk about a range haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I see Springfield changed their tune about snow for SW MO. WWA there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 HRRR really looking good for Tulsa area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: I see Springfield changed their tune about snow for SW MO. WWA there now. I have a feeling we are going to see some snow from this one man!! It all looks good, I am a bit concerned with temps though. Dan Skoff was thinking the 1-2" thing is being low, he was saying he feels like this could drop 3-6" here in our area! Man I tell ya what I will be happy with even 2" after the stupid snow drought we have had in this place in 7 years lol. Here is to hoping, maybe get something Tuesday also who knows...bit early for that still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Holy moly, the 3km HRRR going nuts over NW Arkansas. Is this a mirage? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NW AR sure seems to be the sweet spot on all modeling. The skeptic in me says don't fall for it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ozarkwx said: Holy moly, the 3km HRRR going nuts over NW Arkansas. Is this a mirage? Looks like a long range GFS fantasy storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: I have a feeling we are going to see some snow from this one man!! It all looks good, I am a bit concerned with temps though. Dan Skoff was thinking the 1-2" thing is being low, he was saying he feels like this could drop 3-6" here in our area! Man I tell ya what I will be happy with even 2" after the stupid snow drought we have had in this place in 7 years lol. Here is to hoping, maybe get something Tuesday also who knows...bit early for that still Hey man, been waiting on u to pop in. Dan Skoff did seem to want to go bonkers with a forecast but the last 7 yrs have him gun shy, for good reason. Like you, I'd be ecstatic just to see the ground covered. But I don't know. These models, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: I have a feeling we are going to see some snow from this one man!! It all looks good, I am a bit concerned with temps though. Dan Skoff was thinking the 1-2" thing is being low, he was saying he feels like this could drop 3-6" here in our area! Man I tell ya what I will be happy with even 2" after the stupid snow drought we have had in this place in 7 years lol. Here is to hoping, maybe get something Tuesday also who knows...bit early for that still You still in Fayetteville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, Ozarkwx said: Holy moly, the 3km HRRR going nuts over NW Arkansas. Is this a mirage? I’m in Bentonville. I would love to be in the sweet spot for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Need to take into account warm ground temps. Snow depth map is helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yeah, I don’t think there is much doubt that someone is going to have WSW level snow fall from the sky, the question is how much will accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I mean I know ground temps play a factor, but if you get unloaded with 6-8 inches in a short amount of time, I feel like you only lose 1 or 2 before the cold night sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 34 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: You still in Fayetteville? Yep still here lol, probably until retirement age I'm sure. Im ready for the country though. Tell me about it with models, non stop changes haha. I will wait to see what happens tomorrow, if it starts snowing good and sticking I am heading to a lil camp spot to have a fire and cookout...just relax and enjoy the stuff cause who knows when it will happen again ya know lol. Hope you're well man!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 The initial burst will be very heavy from the looks of the modeling. Convective in nature as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, JoMo said: The initial burst will be very heavy from the looks of the modeling. Convective in nature as well. Would love to see some thunder snow here in Tulsa. I've only experienced it a couple times back when I lived in Dallas, and it is such a cool experience! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On Tulsa NWS’ Decision Support Page, they show Tulsa receiving 0.9” of snowfall tomorrow. I guess they must think temps are too marginal and are being quite conservative. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is updated soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, westhope84 said: On Tulsa NWS’ Decision Support Page, they show Tulsa receiving 0.9” of snowfall tomorrow. I guess they must think temps are too marginal and are being quite conservative. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is updated soon. Yeah, I mean, I trust a pro's opinions over my model obsessing. But even still, that seems just incredibly conservative. I'm sure it'll update. My guess is they say 3 inches, and stop there, if Tulsa gets just 1 or 2, not that far off the mark, and same goes for 4 or 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 As I mentioned in my other post I think the best way to determine the precip accumulations taking into account for melting will be to take the 10:1 parameter and half it. The Kuchera Ratio also looks somewhat accurate to getting the real totals. Also regarding the thundersnow potential, I also do recall an event similar to this back on March 28th, 2009. I was living in Tulsa and we had a thundersnow event that day. It was just above freezing and had heavy wet flakes as a result. Got 9" in a few hours that melted to about 5" at sundown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: As I mentioned in my other post I think the best way to determine the precip accumulations taking into account for melting will be to take the 10:1 parameter and half it. The Kuchera Ratio also looks somewhat accurate to getting the real totals. Also regarding the thundersnow potential, I also do recall an event similar to this back on March 28th, 2009. I was living in Tulsa and we had a thundersnow event that day. It was just above freezing and had heavy wet flakes as a result. Got 9" in a few hours that melted to about 5" at sundown. I remember this event well. Incredible rates and enormous wet flakes. It was a beautiful snow that coated everything, but it was also an incredible disappearing act! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Winter Storm Watch issued for NW Arkansas now. 3-6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 TSA just updated their decision support page to 2.8” accumulation for Tulsa tomorrow. I think we may break the 3”+ drought if rates are close to what’s modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Some of the higher elevations of northern Arkansas could really cash in tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yeah Dan Skoff at KNWA is saying 8" in NW AR and that it might actually be conservative. All the models are showing at least 6" or more now too. That doesn't happen too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 SGF now including Springfield and Joplin in WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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