JoMo Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 High confidence 4-6" forecast from Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: High confidence 4-6" forecast from Springfield. Also mention that the ozarks could remain dry during the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 High res Canadian is catching onto that heavy band near I-44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 V16 continues to drop heavier amounts compared to the main run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 GFS follows the others so far at 18z hanging snow with the main low farther NW on storm 1. Gets sone all the way up to St Joe and HWY 36 it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Call me silly but I dont have a good feeling regarding this first storm for NW Arkansas here at all by what Im seeing and reading idk. We are so border between 1-3" and 6-8". They are being conservative and smart regarding storm 2 and mentioning it could be even more significant depending on its track, who the heck knows lol. Still flurrying here off and on everytime a cloud rolls by. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Storm 1 18Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Call me silly but I dont have a good feeling regarding this first storm for NW Arkansas here at all by what Im seeing and reading idk. We are so border between 1-3" and 6-8". They are being conservative and smart regarding storm 2 and mentioning it could be even more significant depending on its track, who the heck knows lol. Still flurrying here off and on everytime a cloud rolls by. I think we’re going to be good. 4+ inches looks pretty solid. Especially if one of the bands shifts SE just a few miles. The RAP has it just trying to get into Benton Co. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, The Waterboy said: I think we’re going to be good. 4+ inches looks pretty solid. Especially if one of the bands shifts SE just a few miles. The RAP has it just trying to get into Benton Co. I hope so man, fingers crossed!! And ya know it always seems the cutoff line for me here is 412 north lol! I cant count how many times its doing nothing here then poof get on the other side of 412 and its doing something...crazyness man haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The AR folks will like storm 2 this run. Tick east. Looks good for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, NwWhiteOut said: I hope so man, fingers crossed!! In the ball game for sure. Somebody that isn't expecting it is going to get slammed by this storm and I'm not sure I buy the big nw arkansas snow total drop off right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Interesting that the GFS Kuchera ratios continue to be in the 15-18:1 range for storm 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 With storm #2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: With storm #2 Thats just incredible. It would shut down OKC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Congrats Tulsa! Bring it home! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: With storm #2 See thats what I was referring to right there LOL, Tulsa was saying to really watch storm 2. Maybe it will surprise a lot of us who knows!! Boy talk about weenie map in all its glory, I better not get too excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Good luck everyone! Hopefully we all get something memorable! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, NwWhiteOut said: See thats what I was referring to right there LOL, Tulsa was saying to really watch storm 2. Maybe it will surprise a lot of us who knows!! Boy talk about weenie map in all its glory, I better not get too excited lol Indeed. even half of this would be excellent over the next 2 storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 From Norman NWS... The snow associated with the main storm system will move into the area Sunday morning near or just before sunrise Sunday morning. In general, the model QPF is a little lower than previous forecasts, so have adjusted the snow amounts down just a touch. We are still expecting amounts of 5 inches or more throughout the forecast area, with the highest amounts of roughly 8 to 9 inches across southwest Oklahoma and area of north Texas near Wichita Falls. The storm system looks a little quicker and have adjusted the timing of the forecast and heaviest snowfall a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: From Norman NWS... The snow associated with the main storm system will move into the area Sunday morning near or just before sunrise Sunday morning. In general, the model QPF is a little lower than previous forecasts, so have adjusted the snow amounts down just a touch. We are still expecting amounts of 5 inches or more throughout the forecast area, with the highest amounts of roughly 8 to 9 inches across southwest Oklahoma and area of north Texas near Wichita Falls. The storm system looks a little quicker and have adjusted the timing of the forecast and heaviest snowfall a little bit. Their comments about the heaviest amounts in SW OK don’t match the 18z GFS at all. It’s actually the exact opposite. Lowest amounts were in that area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 STL's AFD. They feel confident w/ call for 2-5'' along and south of I70 within their CWA Quote The other threat we`re focused on is the accumulating snow starting across portions of central Missouri Sunday morning and continuing through Monday evening. Here, an upper-level trough will eject out of the southwestern U.S. and push eastward. A leading impulse within this trough will spark precipitation late Sunday morning across portions of central Missouri. Higher probability of snow will spread eastward, primarily across portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois through the day. Snowfall within this first round will be around an inch or less mainly focused in central and northeastern Missouri through west-central Illinois. As the main surface system passes south and east of the CWA overnight Sunday into Monday, the probability of accumulating snow ramps up mainly along and south of the I-70 corridor. Upper-level divergence from the trough and mid-level frontogenesis will couple with cold air to produce efficient snow-to-liquid ratios. By the time this system departs the CWA Monday afternoon and evening, snowfall will range from 2-5 inches along and south of the I-70 corridor. I continue to have confidence in these totals, as blended and ensemble guidance continue to focus the greatest snow potential and amounts along this corridor. Elmore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Have a question about Mountain Home, Arkansas calling expected snow accumulation of 3-5 inches a Winter Storm Warning vs Dora, Missouri calling snow accumulation of 4-6 inches a Winter Weather advisory ? A higher accumulation expected in Dora , Mo obviously but it isn't called a Winter Storm Warning. Hmmmmm? Does Arkansas and Missouri have to meet different criteria ? Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Springfield MO 303 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...Dangerous Cold Through Monday Night... ...Good Chance For Accumulating Snow Starting Sunday and Continuing At Times Into Monday... * WHAT...Wind chill values will frequently be below zero through Monday night. Some areas will see wind chills as low as 15 to 25 degrees below zero. Snow with general amounts of 4 to 6 inches Sunday through Monday. Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Little Rock AR 315 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 * AMOUNTS: Heavy snow is expected Sunday through much of Monday...with snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches expected. Locally higher amounts are possible...especially in the higher terrain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Doramo said: Have a question about Mountain Home, Arkansas calling expected snow accumulation of 3-5 inches a Winter Storm Warning vs Dora, Missouri calling snow accumulation of 4-6 inches a Winter Weather advisory ? A higher accumulation expected in Dora , Mo obviously but it isn't called a Winter Storm Warning. Hmmmmm? Does Arkansas and Missouri have to meet different criteria ? Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Springfield MO 303 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...Dangerous Cold Through Monday Night... ...Good Chance For Accumulating Snow Starting Sunday and Continuing At Times Into Monday... * WHAT...Wind chill values will frequently be below zero through Monday night. Some areas will see wind chills as low as 15 to 25 degrees below zero. Snow with general amounts of 4 to 6 inches Sunday through Monday. Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Little Rock AR 315 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 * AMOUNTS: Heavy snow is expected Sunday through much of Monday...with snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches expected. Locally higher amounts are possible...especially in the higher terrain. Yes. Different criteria. SW Mo requires 6+, Arkansas requires 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Frigid in KC. Hurts to even walk outside with the slightest wind. 2F chill -12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, KC Storm said: Frigid in KC. Hurts to even walk outside with the slightest wind. 2F chill -12. Yeah we are 0F IN Platte City, partly cloudy skies, temps falling like a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 41 minutes ago, MUWX said: Yes. Different criteria. SW Mo requires 6+, Arkansas requires 4. Thanks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 RAP has been wanting to fire up a snowband around OKC by 03z. HRRR waits until 05z-06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 18z Euro, for kicks and giggles (KS Centered) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, rockchalk83 said: 18z Euro, for kicks and giggles Thanks! Does the 18z keep the 2nd storm way south or did it come north closer to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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