rockchalk83 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: Euro looks so much different than every other model for NW OK and the panhandles. It’s been very persistent about the max snowfall being mostly west of 35 and north of 40, all the other models are SE of there. Why do you think that is? Also noticed the RAP doing that, too, bringing widespread 4-8" across KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Why do you think that is? Also noticed the RAP doing that, too, bringing widespread 4-8" across KS. Perhaps the stronger push of cold air now being picked up? Just hazarding a non mets guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Globals all look pretty similar as far as QPF goes now. There's disagreement on where any banding sets up but they all have generally 0.3-0.5" in OK. SW MO gets around 0.3-0.4", NW AR gets 0.3-0.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Whats the Euro track for storm #2? I know it had been pretty far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, KC Storm said: Whats the Euro track for storm #2? I know it had been pretty far east. SE AR gets smashed by multiple waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, KC Storm said: Whats the Euro track for storm #2? I know it had been pretty far east. The Euro trended a touch slower and westward for the 2nd storm. So towards the insane GFS, but still has a ways to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, StormChazer said: The Euro trended a touch slower and westward for the 2nd storm. So towards the insane GFS, but still has a ways to go. Seems like it’s trending towards GFS but a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Thanks . I figured the gfs was off its rocker. Always fun to dream though. Hoping the AR crew can at least clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The PV lobe is lifting out for storm #2 so it may tick west over time. How far is anyone's guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Tulsa NWS thinking 6 for round 1 and 7 for round 2 in Tulsa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua D Wells Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 We could meet all criteria for ending Oklahomas Blizzard Warning drought, with the exception of sustained 35mph winds. 30mph+ wind gusts are still possible. Think we could pull it off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 42 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Why do you think that is? Also noticed the RAP doing that, too, bringing widespread 4-8" across KS. I’m not sure really. It has a deeper and more neutrally tilted wave which helps precipitation blossom further west and is also a bit slower. Ive noticed the euro has had a bit of a NW bias all season though so it may be a bit off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Latest HRRR has Tulsa picking up 2.5 inches by 7am 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Tulsa NWS HWO 128 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. WINTER WEATHER. SNOW ACCUMULATION. RISK...Limited. AREA... Northeast Oklahoma. ONSET... After Midnight. Additional Accumulations in Later Periods. WIND CHILL. RISK...Significant. AREA... Northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. ONSET... After Midnight. DISCUSSION... With the sun coming out this afternoon, it has helped reduce the sting of the wind chills but it still remains very cold across eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. With temperatures warming across eastern Oklahoma, the Wind Chill advisory will be cancelled early. The wind chill advisory will remain in effect across northwestern Arkansas. Dangerous wind chills will move in once again late tonight into early tomorrow morning in tandem with our winter storm system. Wind chill values may drop as low as 15 below zero across northeast Oklahoma and 10 below zero across northwestern Arkansas. As for the wintry precipitation, we are expecting a lead band to develop ahead of the main wave of snow late tonight into early tomorrow morning. There are still some questions into exactly where this band sets up but locations within this lead band will experience heavy snowfall rates likely exceeding 1 inch per hour at times. This particular band and its development will need to be watched closely as this could greatly affect snowfall totals. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Spotter Activation Not Expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. SUNDAY...Winter Weather Potential...High Wind Potential...Dangerous Wind Chill Potential. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Winter Weather Potential...Dangerous Wind Chill Potential. FRIDAY...Dangerous Wind Chill Potential. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Light to moderate snow will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across portions of the area, and both areal coverage and intensity should increase during the day and into Sunday night. The snow potential will decrease from west to east Monday, ending by Monday afternoon. Average storm total snowfall from 3 to 8 inches is currently forecast, with the higher end amounts favored in parts of northeastern Oklahoma generally along and near interstate 44 with lower amounts favored across far southeastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Locally higher amounts can be expected, especially for locations within the locally heavy snow band expected to develop late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Northerly winds gusting in the 20 to 25 mph range will combine with the dry nature of the snow to lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow. Significantly reduced visibilities can be expected. Travel will be difficult if not impossible at times. A second winter storm continues to look likely to bring additional significant snow to eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday night and into Wednesday. At this time, it appears that areas along and south of Interstate 40 will be more favored for higher snow totals than areas farther north. However, the location and accumulation details associated with this event contain more uncertainty than with the first storm, and as such, fine tuning can be expected over the coming days. In addition to the impactful snows, dangerous and life-threatening wind chills will continue Sunday and through most of next week. Conditions will worsen significantly Sunday and into the early part of next week, as wind chills drop well below zero areawide. Wind chills will be lowest Monday morning when most of eastern Oklahoma and far northwestern Arkansas will see values at or below 20 below zero with isolated locations nearing 30 below zero across northeast Oklahoma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18z HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Tulsa NWS mentioning thunder snow in the first band... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 148 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 .DISCUSSION... The deepening and drying arctic air mass has resulted in an end to the flurries for the most part as well as the lake effect snow. There are reported sightings of the star about 92 million miles away from us. Some folks call it the sun. All I know is it's nice to see. This appearance will be brief. We're expecting the onset of the much talked about winter storm to be after midnight tonight. CAM guidance is keying in on a frontogenetic band setting up close to the I-44 corridor to the north of the 850mb frontal zone, where locally heavy snows are likely. The narrower and more intense nature of the band depicted in the CAMs suggest some CSI and maybe a rumble of thunder. This band will gradually shift east thru the day Sunday and weaken while another band along the 700mb frontal zone advances WNW to ESE across the entire region Sunday afternoon and night. The event comes to a rather quick end Monday. The upper system is expected to remain more of an open wave with the bulk of the forcing and QPF with the upper system itself to stay just to the south and east of the forecast area. This has resulted in an overall reduction in snow amounts over portions of northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Nevertheless, expected amounts are at least close to warning criteria, then you combine that with the high impact to travel from blowing and drifting snow and the dangerous wind chills. The next system will follow quickly on its heels Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding some important details. The GFS is painting the picture of an epic snowstorm for our area, while the EC is not. There are significant differences in the amount of QPF that will fall over our area. Will continue the theme of the previous forecast with the heavier snow potential south of I-40. Bottom line, this system has the potential to be a high impact to travel, but uncertainties in the details still exist so don't get too hung up on amounts at this point. A warming trend will start in the wake of this system toward the end of the week on into next weekend, slowed i 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: 18z HRRR That looks Good for Oklahoma for sure. Even NW AR and SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: 18z HRRR Streaks now showing in west central Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12z UK Met QPF both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The HRRR continues to trend towards less QPF, and is relying on SLRs of nearly 20:1. Seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Nam in deadly range has begun...I am ok with KC area output...congrats OK and points south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 NAM3K throws down 16 in OKC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Weatherdemon said: NAM3K throws down 16 in OKC Anyone have the WeatherBell 3km map? I want to compare it to Pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Nam in deadly range has begun...I am ok with KC area output...congrats OK and points south Yup same here! Good luck down south. The sun sure felt nice today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Anyone have the WeatherBell 3km map? I want to compare it to Pivotal. That was actually from COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, KC Storm said: Yup same here! Good luck down south. The sun sure felt nice today Beautiful deep winter day, looking for an over-performer tomorrow. Storm mode and weenie hallucinations now under way. Almost WSW criteria for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Beautiful deep winter day, looking for an over-performer tomorrow. Storm mode and weenie hallucinations now under way. Almost WSW criteria for us Haha. Nothing like radar Weenieism. Hoping for two tomorrow and a miracle late week before we warm it up. Will be fun watching the Obs down south regardless of what happens up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Yeah I just want one good snowstorm where I can say it snowed me in before we get into severe wx season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 36 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Anyone have the WeatherBell 3km map? I want to compare it to Pivotal. Sorry! Late to the party, running errands! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18z RDPS stayed pretty steady to 12z. Continues to slide the heavier bands just a tick SE especially if you compare the 06, 12, and 18z. 18z below... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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