StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Loving this new trend on the short term models. It would appear our snow in Tulsa is highly dependent on that initial band coming though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 ^That’s an I-44 hammer! Awesome to see the models increasing again. Definitely been sampled by now so hopefully all future runs continue this way. Suck on that, Lucy!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Hour 84 of NAM FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Looks like the 12z GFS increased snowfall totals for Benton county during that first storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Kind of looks like there could be a fairly narrow band of heavier snow in SWMO. Not sure we will know where its going to set up, until it sets up. With that said, I hope the GFS is right, and that Kuchera is close to accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12z GFS looking better for the NWA crew. Trends are good so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 There's been an overall shift SE with the QPF in pretty much all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 V16 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Well if the GFS is right, this is just the appetizer with the main course still yet to come with the 2nd system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, JoMo said: Well if the GFS is right, this is just the appetizer with the main course still yet to come with the 2nd system. Just saw that. Really upped totals across NWA and Southwest MO for that second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Yeah that 2nd Storm goes nuts. Idk that we would use kuchera values for the 2nd storm....might be more like 15:1? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 So out of all the models that have run so far, I'm probably averaging around 4" of 10:1. Tack on an extra inch or two for colder temps, so maybe the upper end of SGF's forecast amounts. If they can identify where any bands set up, then maybe those areas will get put under a Winter Storm Warning as they may exceed 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, JoMo said: So out of all the models that have run so far, I'm probably averaging around 4" of 10:1. Tack on an extra inch or two for colder temps, so maybe the upper end of SGF's forecast amounts. If they can identify where any bands set up, then maybe those areas will get put under a Winter Storm Warning as they may exceed 6". Would be so cool for this entire 4- states area to be under a Winter warning at the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, JoMo said: So out of all the models that have run so far, I'm probably averaging around 4" of 10:1. Tack on an extra inch or two for colder temps, so maybe the upper end of SGF's forecast amounts. If they can identify where any bands set up, then maybe those areas will get put under a Winter Storm Warning as they may exceed 6". Would say that is a fair assessment, although you could push the 10 inch range on high side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Norman has some text to go with it. Basically talking about that first band we are seeing on models and how it’ll provide some noticeable added inches before the “main event”, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Would say that is a fair assessment, although you could push the 10 inch range on high side I like to keep my expectations low so it has a better chance of overperforming. Plus, the continuation of the slow SE slide of the QPF is a worry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I like the snow depth map better. Of course, my house sits right under that 9.4 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Things still look pretty good. GFS actually has over .5 qpf here through the end of the week but need to see other models get more interested before getting too excited. Central MO is crushed on storm #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 27 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Norman has some text to go with it. Basically talking about that first band we are seeing on models and how it’ll provide some noticeable added inches before the “main event”, Right over my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, KC Storm said: Things still look pretty good. GFS actually has over .5 qpf here through the end of the week but need to see other models get more interested before getting too excited. Central MO is crushed on storm #2. The trend is definitely our friend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 45 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I like the snow depth map better. Of course, my house sits right under that 9.4 lol. That is just crazy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 12z UKMET also shifted SE up this way, which is good cause it had a relatively drier area in NW AR that is now located in central AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 TSA. Our attention then focuses on the winter storm which is expected to impact parts of eastern Oklahoma after midnight tonight. The latest hi-res guidance has shown a consistent signal for a heavy but narrow frontogenetical band to set up somewhere over central and eastern Oklahoma ahead of the main wave of snow. This potential band will need to be watched for a quick 2 to 4 inches if not more before sunrise. As a result, locations within this band will see conditions deteriorate rapidly. The exact location of this band is still in question and the details of the winter storm overall will be ironed out in the afternoon forecast package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Still trending downward on QPF on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z UKMET also shifted SE up this way, which is good cause it had a relatively drier area in NW AR that is now located in central AR. UK looks much drier everywhere, than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, JoMo said: Still trending downward on QPF on the Euro. Looks a lot like the UK. Not good. UK/Euro vs. US models. Edit: sorry I was looking at the 10:1 charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Looks fairly similar to last night's run, SW MO and central OK doesn't get as much, but NW AR gets a little more(goes from about 6 to almost 8). Tulsa down 1.5 inches. Interestingly, the Euro isn't sniffing out the heavy band that sets up tonight, like the short range models are, so that will make a difference if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Looks fairly similar to last night's run, SW MO and central OK doesn't get as much, but NW AR gets a little more(goes from about 6 to almost 8). Tulsa down 1.5 inches. Interestingly, the Euro isn't sniffing out the heavy band that sets up tonight, like the short range models are, so that will make a difference if it happens. Looking good. Congrats OKC. Lets bring this one home. Doesn't happen down there all too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Euro looks so much different than every other model for NW OK and the panhandles. It’s been very persistent about the max snowfall being mostly west of 35, all the other models are SE of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Looks fairly similar, SW MO and central OK doesn't get as much, but NW AR gets a little more(goes from about 6 to almost 8). Tulsa down 1.5 inches. Interestingly, the Euro isn't sniffing out the heavy band that sets up tonight, like the short range models are, so that will make a difference if it happens. Nah, Tulsa has gone down: 12z Yesterday: 0.7" 00z last night: 0.5" 12z today: 0.3" OKC: 12z Yesterday: 0.8" 00z last night: 0.7" 12z today: 0.5" Joplin went from 0.5" to 0.3" From 0.4" to 0.3" at Moweatherguys's house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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