NWAflizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, NwWhiteOut said: Heck the past few days we have a coating of ice on the trees and all these snow frizzle showers probly half to 3/4 of an inch of snow on the ground now. Its actually pretty, just light and no brutal winds...just a neat surprise snow. Its just the relaxing kind of snows, enjoyable even though it isnt much at all. Same thing has been happening up here. We probably have about the same on the ground. Snowed lightly all day today and was blowing around everywhere. Very nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 00z CAMs are quite disheartening for Oklahoma... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I call this Lucy. I'm in far NW AR mind you. Storm 1 best lift west of here. Storm 2 east of here. Granted it's the NAM. Heck I saw on one of the Canadian models a couple days ago a perfect little bullseye of nothing over Benton and Washington counties while everyone all around received a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I do not like the look of the NAM. Pretty much shafts E OK and NW AR! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, stormdragonwx said: Heck I saw on one of the Canadian models a couple days ago a perfect little bullseye of nothing over Benton and Washington counties while everyone all around received a foot. Man its always boggled my pea brain what causes it here lol? Im not sure if someone explained it already(sorry if so). Elevation and terrain?? I mean its not a terrible track but looking at maps theres a literal hole of less accumulations for NW Ar here...so mind boggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Agreed its totally weird. We get one anomalous once in a decade event like in 2011 then shafted the rest of the time. For us NWA folks I'm holding out hope on the GFS Ensembles. As far as I have seen every member on every run shows us getting at least 6 inches. Here is the 18z, only one that scares me is #2 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Tulsa could end up looking pretty bad for issuing the warning so far in advanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 While the CAMS are a little worrying for many (dry), let's wait for the 00z GFS and Euro before panicking. The CAMs may still be a bit out of their best range right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: Tulsa could end up looking pretty bad for issuing the warning so far in advanced. The SGF forecast office has always been superior to Tulsa. You see they have played the conservative route on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: While the CAMS are a little worrying for many (dry), let's wait for the 00z GFS and Euro before panicking. The CAMs may still be a bit out of their best range right now. Agreed, i'm mostly not a huge fan of using CAMs for winter forecasting, but still not a great 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 00Z GFS looks about the same as the 18Z, with the exception of central OK amped up a little more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 0z gfs is a little weaker but has more precip focused for the East OK far north West AR crew this run. Also has the initial round a little stronger then before up north but weaker then the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Overall 00z GFS looks very similar to 18z, if not slightly better. Definitely not a drying trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 00z GFS QPF... Using 16:1 to 20:1 ratios yields 6-8"+ for many in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, jojo762 said: 00z GFS QPF... meh. It's not the great look we were seeing yesterday with widespread > 0.5" totals, but I feel it at least stopped the bleeding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The key for many of us is getting incredible snow ratios. SGF certainly poured cold water on the idea of getting SLRs of 20:1 or more, but I’m not sure how easy something like that is to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Storm #2 on the 00z GFS is coming in beefier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Going to be awfully interesting 00z run of the ECMWF.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 V16 looks way better again. Can’t post the map for some reason. QPF slightly higher than “regular” GFS run. The few locations I spot checked have about 0.1 QPF more on the V16. Is the NWS moving to the new version very soon? Personally I would prefer to use that regardless of what it’s showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Storm #2 continues the trend of a more expansive shield of precip. Someone will get lucky and do really well from the two storms put together. Nice hit NW AR for storm #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, KC Storm said: Storm #2 continues the trend of a more expansive shield of precip. Someone will get lucky and do really well from the two storms put together. Nice hit NW AR for storm #2 Good to hear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: V16 looks way better again. Can’t post the map for some reason. QPF slightly higher than “regular” GFS run. The few locations I spot checked have about 0.1 QPF more on the V16. Is this NWS moving to the new version very soon? Personally I would prefer to use that regardless of what it’s showing. You're welcome. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 QPF between GFS and v16 120 hours out. EDIT: 150 hours out quickly shows nearly 2 inches of QPF https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021021300&fh=150&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_sc&p=qpf_acc&m=gfs_para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, stormdragonwx said: You're welcome. lol Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: You're welcome. lol Thanks! Are you copying those on a laptop or your phone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 So.. anybody staying up for the Euro!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Wtf? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Thanks! Are you copying those on a laptop or your phone? Those were with the PC but I've done it with my Android its just a bit trickier to accomplish. You have to tap and hold the white area at the top of the graphic to get the "save image" option with mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 00z Icon through storm 1. Both storms ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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