MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Feeling better about my call for 2-4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Wx 24/7 said: Do you buy the 14:1 or 16:1 ratios SGF mentions? Seems like it should be higher??? Quote Overall, we started with 12-14 to 1 ratios and gradually climbed into the 16-19 to 1 range as the event ends. They go higher at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Welp, now we wait for this thing to get sampled and hope that it saves us.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Norman just put out Winter Storm Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Weird seeing all of OK lit up pink with the Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Do you buy the 14:1 or 16:1 ratios SGF mentions? Seems like it should be higher??? I have seen some chatter on twitter that there isnt nearly as much ascent within the DGZ as was previously expected, so the ratios likely will not be off the charts, like we were all hoping. Additionally, any reduction in QPF is amplified when you are relying on high SLRs to get big totals. Unfortunately, we are trending in the wrong direction on both items. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Come to expect that around here. Minus Dec 13th, 2020, this place is cursed for snow. Man the last time I saw a good snow here(over 4") was back in 2013, no kidding! Thats right around when you moved here also isnt it? Every year since its been half inch to 1 inch lil storms or a total of a half inch to an inch a season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Doug heady out with his latest and has reduced totals as well. Lucy is certainly here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Man the last time I saw a good snow here(over 4") was back in 2013, no kidding! Thats right around when you moved here also isnt it? Every year since its been half inch to 1 inch lil storms or a total of a half inch to an inch a season lol Yes, you are correct. Moved here in March 2014. One 5" snow since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Stolen from Chris Higgins at Fox 2 in St. Louis. Bolded words are changes made for us. Quote 1. Someone notices the possibility of a potent storm moving thru the area in 7-10 days. 2. 3-4 days are spent pointing out that off-hour runs are stupid and useless and throwing out any model that doesn't appear to confirm accumulating snow along the I-35, 1-40, and I-44 corridors. 3. 2-3 days are spent trying to determine what the heck the term "interstate corridor" actually means. 4. During the same period, every registered user askes the handful of posters who actually understand the models how much snow will fall at their nearest cross-street - and they ask 6-10 times after each model run. 5. System will be compared to every big snow event in the last 28 years. 6. As the system approaches, people who may (or may not) know what they are talking about post accumulation maps. 7. Each registered user bemoans the fact that the system is missing them by 50 miles. 8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.) 9. Users again frantically try to determine how much will fall at their cross street. 10. System goes north or south. Every user gives up hope of seeing any snow at all (24 hours earlier, the models indicated 6-8 inches at their cross-street.) 11. Users try not to use off-color language to indicate their frustration with not getting any snow at all or at least far less than the models originally indicated. 12. 95% of users watch in horror as 5% of users begin to post photos of snow actually falling on one of the requested cross-streets. 13. System pjazzes to the North/South/East/West and bombs out on someone else. Postings cease. Newbies are addicted...... 14. New system shows up - See #1. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Guys (and gals), We still are in play for 6-12+ for almost everybody in 2 storms. Yes, lots of room for error. We aren’t getting shutout though. Here’s some reassurance from the v16... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021218&fh=216&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc= 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Stolen from Chris Higgins at Fox 2 in St. Louis. Bolded words are changes made for us. We are on step 10, praying that step 8 happens in the next 18-24 hours. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, The Waterboy said: Guys (and gals), We still are in play for 6-12+ for almost everybody in 2 storms. Yes, lots of room for error. We aren’t getting shutout though. Here’s some reassurance from the v16... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021218&fh=216&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc= Holy smokes! That found something big after Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said: Holy smokes! That found something big after Thursday. Good grief, not even gonna! Thats way tooooooo far out man dont fall for the trickery and punish yourself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 29 minutes ago, lokee said: Portland OR Richmond VA and OKC all under warnings at once. What are the odds? Thats why I love this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Holy smokes! That found something big after Thursday. GFS for the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Guys (and gals), We still are in play for 6-12+ for almost everybody in 2 storms. Yes, lots of room for error. We aren’t getting shutout though. Here’s some reassurance from the v16... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021218&fh=216&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc= You are setting yourself up to be taught a very important lesson. Big storms no longer happen here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 For those worried down south. I really think your fine. I think were just seeing things get a bit more realistic amounts wise. Those maps a few days ago were fun to look at but these numbers are a lot more realistic. Still a good storm is one the way for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 21z RAP goes out to 51 and looks solid. And is almost identical to the GFS at hr54. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021221&fh=51&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, KC Storm said: For those worried down south. I really think your fine. I think were just seeing things get a bit more realistic amounts wise. Those maps a few days ago were fun to look at but these numbers are a lot more realistic. Still a good storm is one the way for many. The trend is not good, and were still two days out. It could reverse course, but if the trend continues, its not looking good for anything of significance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: You are setting yourself up to be taught a very important lesson. Big storms no longer happen here. I wasn’t suggesting this will happen. Just pointing out that the models haven’t tanked completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Good grief, not even gonna! Thats way tooooooo far out man dont fall for the trickery and punish yourself lol Me, either. Not another trap! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: The trend is not good, and were still two days out. It could reverse course, but if the trend continues, its not looking good for anything of significance. True. Hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Do they still have Blizzard Warnings? Will we see any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 18z ICON through storm 1. Not sure if this is 10:1 ratios or Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, The Waterboy said: I wasn’t suggesting this will happen. Just pointing out that the models haven’t tanked completely. I have thousands of scorch marks on me coming from the tough ass mid Atlantic forum. We have been burnt countless times there. Whatever you can get..enjoy! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I8z Icon out to 120 with both storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: I8z Icon out to 120 with both storms. Wow that is tight up this way. Expecting the worst hoping for the best. Lees Summit / Harrisonvile SE burbs may eek out some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Cloudy and 3F waiting for my dusting to commence in about an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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