Spot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Wow, NAM really cranking the snow machine in parts of Arkansas this run. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Tulsa NWS still pulling back on amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 57 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: When all is said and done we're probably looking at a 2-4 event here. Im not liking the looks of this at all for us man!! Figures, will we get burnt yet again...probly lol. Really sux doesn't it. Run after run after run looks good then bam, screw you nw arkansas lol. Eh I dont even know what to say, these lil non mentioned events pop out more for us then these overhyped things do haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Tulsa NWS still pulling back on amounts. As mentioned yesterday, they should have started with amounts depicted above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I am concerned by the fact that Tulsa went warning for everyone except NWA, and the fact that SGF isn't forecasting enough snow to meet the threshold for a watch/warning. I suppose SGF could issue one for below the threshold with other factors (cold, and blowing snow) but the fact that their is a warning to the west, and a watch to the east, doesnt give me a ton of hope that SGF is going to pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: I am concerned by the fact that Tulsa went warning for everyone except NWA, and the fact that SGF isn't forecasting enough snow to meet the threshold for a watch/warning. I suppose SGF could issue one for below the threshold with other factors (cold, and blowing snow) but the fact that their is a warning to the west, and a watch to the east, doesnt give me a ton of hope that SGF is going to pull the trigger. TSA is holding off on warning for NW AR because of timing only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Tulsa NWS still pulling back on amounts. I don't think this is the 7 day graphic. For one the dates don't go out beyond Monday. Secondly the daily amounts don't match up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 TSA is in the process of updating their map so the numbers aren't going to add up just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Wx 24/7 said: TSA is holding off on warning for NW AR because of timing only. I hadn't seen that, but I think they have a lower threshold than SGF does though. If I remember correctly, Tulsa is 4" per event while SGF is 6". Hopefully the AFD will provide some insight soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: TSA is holding off on warning for NW AR because of timing only. From TSA in their disco. Since impacts will probably hold off until after 12Z Sunday, northwest Arkansas will remain in a watch. While the exact details will continue to change with new data, overall the message remains the same. This system will be a big deal, and will likely cause significant travel impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: I don't think this is the 7 day graphic. For one the dates don't go out beyond Monday. Secondly the daily amounts don't match up. You’re correct. I didn’t realize that. 10.3 is the week. 6.8 is Sat-Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 28 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: I kinda got a feeling like what another poster mentioned "Lucy" might indeed pull the football at the last minute. I just can't help not liking the trends today. I was really hoping this storm would give 2011 a run for it's money for NWA. Guess we will see in 36 hours or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, MUWX said: I am concerned by the fact that Tulsa went warning for everyone except NWA, and the fact that SGF isn't forecasting enough snow to meet the threshold for a watch/warning. I suppose SGF could issue one for below the threshold with other factors (cold, and blowing snow) but the fact that their is a warning to the west, and a watch to the east, doesnt give me a ton of hope that SGF is going to pull the trigger. Hopefully their AFD has more detail into their thoughts than this morning's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Wx 24/7 said: Hopefully their AFD has more detail into their thoughts than this morning's. Well, if I am confident in anything, its that the afternoon AFD cannot be worse than this mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 We haven’t really discussed the typically NW shift that often occurs 24-48 hours out. We’re right in that timeframe now. I know you KC folks want to see that! Thoughts anyone? Like many of you, I’m nervous since we’ve been watching this for days (but it feels like weeks!) and the models had huge totals that are now trickling downward some. The chances of this being a swing and a miss are extremely low. The GFS has been steady. The Euro looked solid. Canadian moved our direction. No need to panic (I’m talking to myself) on one run of the NAM that still wasn’t a total train wreck. If things hold steady we’ll be getting excited by this time tomorrow. Now, where is my brown paper bag before I hyperventilate! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: We haven’t really discussed the typically NW shift that often occurs 24-48 hours out. We’re right in that timeframe now. I know you KC folks want to see that! Thoughts anyone? Like many of you, I’m nervous since we’ve been watching this for days (but it feels like weeks!) and the models had huge totals that are now trickling downward some. The chances of this being a swing and a miss are extremely low. The GFS has been steady. The Euro looked solid. Canadian moved our direction. No need to panic (I’m talking to myself) on one run of the NAM that still wasn’t a total train wreck. If things hold steady we’ll be getting excited by this time tomorrow. Now, where is my brown paper bag before I hyperventilate! I hopefully it is fully sampled by the 12z run tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 SGF says only 3-6" of snow with max snow ratios of 16:1 as the event ends. No Winter Storm Watch. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: We haven’t really discussed the typically NW shift that often occurs 24-48 hours out. We’re right in that timeframe now. I know you KC folks want to see that! Thoughts anyone? Like many of you, I’m nervous since we’ve been watching this for days (but it feels like weeks!) and the models had huge totals that are now trickling downward some. The chances of this being a swing and a miss are extremely low. The GFS has been steady. The Euro looked solid. Canadian moved our direction. No need to panic (I’m talking to myself) on one run of the NAM that still wasn’t a total train wreck. If things hold steady we’ll be getting excited by this time tomorrow. Now, where is my brown paper bag before I hyperventilate! Don’t worry it’s gonna be impressive down that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: SGF says only 3-6" of snow with max snow ratios of 16:1 as the event ends. No Winter Storm Watch. Interesting... Yep. Based on the graphics they have been putting out this afternoon, this is what I expected. At least we got a solid AFD this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Might I remind many of you that the 12Z Euro was looking pretty nice for alot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 It looks like tulsa may be rolling amounts back as well. Is Lucy here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: It looks like tulsa may be rolling amounts back as well. Is Lucy here? Kinda starting to look like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 18z GFS slight better for NE/E OK but worse for SW OK for storm 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Here comes Lucy... should we laugh, cry, or kick things if Shreveport, Pine Bluff, and NW Mississippi get more snow than most of us?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 V16 held steady minus the hole over NWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 QPF continues trending down. Still a good snowfall for most people though, just lower expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, JoMo said: QPF continues trending down. Still a good snowfall for most people though, just lower expectations. Do you buy the 14:1 or 16:1 ratios SGF mentions? Seems like it should be higher??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, JoMo said: QPF continues trending down. Still a good snowfall for most people though, just lower expectations. Hard to get overly excited for another 3 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Am not shocked at all by any of this, the real kicker is when the deep south is mentioned to get more(tulsas latest mention for next weeks late storm). Cannot win, oh well give me our 2-4" I guess it will have to do lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: V16 held steady minus the hole over NWA. Come to expect that around here. Minus Dec 13th, 2020, this place is cursed for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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