JoMo Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Lot of snow falling out of the sky on the 12z NAM. E OK and NW AR are the big winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 48 minutes ago, JoMo said: Lot of snow falling out of the sky on the 12z NAM. E OK and NW AR are the big winners. I actually have a pretty good feeling about seeing some falling snow out of this one. As somebody mentioned earlier this is not some big wound up system that normally screws us at the last minute. It's more of a wave coming thru that we typically see in Nina yrs. Hope I'm not wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said: I actually have a pretty good feeling about seeing some falling snow out of this one. As somebody mentioned earlier this is not some big wound up system that normally screws us at the last minute. It's more of a wave coming thru that we typically see in Nina yrs. Hope I'm not wrong. I'm really worried about temps. 850's came in a bit warmer. Also surface temps are going to hang above freezing, there appears to be a cold enough layer at 925 MB though, assuming the 850's stay below freezing (down there) This is also based on the lift being shown on the NAM panning out. Temps drop a few degrees under the precip shield. If the precip shield is weaker due to not as much lift/dynamic cooling than the model anticipates then it could wind up as more of a rain/snow mix, and maybe rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 And you wind up with weird snowfall maps like this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, JoMo said: And you wind up with weird snowfall maps like this.... Pretty similar to the last 2 runs of the GFS. But yah that is really elevation and temp driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, StormChazer said: 12Z Euro Thanks for posting Euro. I'll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 One thing at a time, I know. But all three, Euro, GFS, and Canadian are all dropping another few inches on Tuesday. GFS Euro Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 0Z 12K NAM holding steady with its large amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 00Z HRRR looks good for OK through AR. Amounts taper off in SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Interesting, but I don't really trust the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, JoMo said: Interesting, but I don't really trust the NAM. Is this fully sampled data yet, or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 NAM, NAM 3k, RAP, HRRR and even the Canadian are saying its happening and upping totals/coverage overall. Might even be getting some convective thundersnow out of this. Temps are also trending colder. Though to be realistic I do think some of these totals seen here are overdoing it. Might cut the totals in half to get our real amounts due to the warm ground temps causing melting and compacting. EDIT: When you go back in and look at the Kuchera Ratio I think those will be closer to our actual amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 This is definitely a good sign for someone in this region. By now we normally see models slashing totals and warning up. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 59 minutes ago, MUWX said: Is this fully sampled data yet, or not? Looks like it. Looks a bit cooler as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Still a pretty considerable spread on the Tuesday system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Small southward shift in the 12z NAM this morning and a little drier overall. Still a wallop for NE OK and NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, JoMo said: Small southward shift in the 12z NAM this morning and a little drier overall. Still a wallop for NE OK and NW AR. Glad for those guys, maybe the KC area hits one soon. Very dry overall in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Really crossing my fingers on this. Tulsa is beyond due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 The Tues system has very broad lift over much of the central US for a longer period and is colder. We'll have to see how that one comes together as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12z GFS looking good. Even slashing those totals in half yields a nice event. Most we've seen here in 6 yrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Majority of 12z models so far seem to be targeting NE OK, NW AR for the heaviest amounts. Canadian is a little more meh. Tues system still has considerable spread. Good seeing the Christmas Eve system trying to show back up on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, JoMo said: Majority of 12z models so far seem to be targeting NE OK, NW AR for the heaviest amounts. Canadian is a little more meh. Tues system still has considerable spread. Good seeing the Christmas Eve system trying to show back up on the 12z GFS. Noticed that as well. Some hope in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I can't remember the last time I saw a winter storm warning for Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Chinook said: I can't remember the last time I saw a winter storm warning for Oklahoma. Lol like a week ago? NW Oklahoma had a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Chinook said: I can't remember the last time I saw a winter storm warning for Oklahoma. Other than the NW part? They had one on like Dec 1st. And probably one back in Oct for the freezing rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 12z Euro was a smidge more dry and a smidge farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro was a smidge more dry and a smidge farther south. Got any estimates on the Euro for NW AR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said: Got any estimates on the Euro for NW AR? EURO lays down 2-4" looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Got any estimates on the Euro for NW AR? Looks like 3-5" falls out of the sky. No idea about accumulation due to temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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