StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Pretty neat snippet from TSA on the lake effect snowband from Oologah. 40:1 SNOW RATIO from this band. I wonder if this is it's own beast, or if this means there is a 40:1 potential for the system in 2 days. Surely not I would think...because that would be outrageous. Can anyone with more knowledge on this educate me? "The other concern in the short term continues to be lake effect snow streaming off of Lake Oologah. The latest radar imagery continues to show a relatively impressive and narrow band of snow streaming off of Lake Oologah. KINX is also suggesting a small, not nearly as impressive band of lake effect snow streaming off of Grand Lake which is oriented somewhat favorable with the environmental winds. Total snowfall of up to 1" has been reported within the lake effect snow band from Oologah. An NWS employee located under the band measured 0.8" of snow this morning which melted down to 0.02" of liquid resulting in a snow ratio of 40:1. This ratio is expected to maintain within this lake effect band through the afternoon, evening and overnight hours. The latest guidance continues to suggest NNE winds will not end anytime soon thus opted to extend the localized lake effect snow for Oologah and to a lesser extent Grand Lake through tomorrow morning. As a result, an additional one half inch of snow accumulation is possible from the Lake Oologah lake effect snow band while a quarter of an inch will be possible within the Grand Lake lake effect band." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Radar hallucinations will commence shortly, weenie rule now in full effect 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I still remember growing up in NJ and getting all excited looking at composite radar and seeing all this precip headed my direction only to realize the storm was too far east and watch the moisture hit the fabled brick wall. Of course there were great storms too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 From analyzing the GFS & Euro runs, that the GFS had a slightly weaker 500 mb low, while the Euro had a stronger system and was more closed off from landfall through the Ohio Valley. Will have to see if the trend holds true in later model runs or if there's a correction back to stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 25 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Pretty neat snippet from TSA on the lake effect snowband from Oologah. 40:1 SNOW RATIO from this band. I wonder if this is it's own beast, or if this means there is a 40:1 potential for the system in 2 days. Surely not I would think...because that would be outrageous. Can anyone with more knowledge on this educate me? "The other concern in the short term continues to be lake effect snow streaming off of Lake Oologah. The latest radar imagery continues to show a relatively impressive and narrow band of snow streaming off of Lake Oologah. KINX is also suggesting a small, not nearly as impressive band of lake effect snow streaming off of Grand Lake which is oriented somewhat favorable with the environmental winds. Total snowfall of up to 1" has been reported within the lake effect snow band from Oologah. An NWS employee located under the band measured 0.8" of snow this morning which melted down to 0.02" of liquid resulting in a snow ratio of 40:1. This ratio is expected to maintain within this lake effect band through the afternoon, evening and overnight hours. The latest guidance continues to suggest NNE winds will not end anytime soon thus opted to extend the localized lake effect snow for Oologah and to a lesser extent Grand Lake through tomorrow morning. As a result, an additional one half inch of snow accumulation is possible from the Lake Oologah lake effect snow band while a quarter of an inch will be possible within the Grand Lake lake effect band." LES bands usually run 20:1 to 50:1... (huge variation, obviously) so that sounds about right, especially given the super cold conditions. Impressive nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 44 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Awfully kind of you Euro. Can somebody post the Euro QPF map for the period ending 0Z 2-16-21? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Can somebody post the Euro QPF map for the period ending 0Z 2-16-21? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Can somebody post the Euro QPF map for the period ending 0Z 2-16-21? Euro is free on pivotalweather now? Generally 0.3-0.4 for your area. https://www.pivotalweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: OK thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 So looks like the Kuchera maps are using about a 20:1 SLR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said: So looks like the Kuchera maps are using about a 20:1 SLR? 25-30:1, it looks like. I wonder if Euro drags down some very cold air from aloft, which may be the reason for the enhanced SLR's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, JoMo said: Euro is free on pivotalweather now? Generally 0.3-0.4 for your area. https://www.pivotalweather.com/ Great site. I had lost my link to it I guess. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: So looks like the Kuchera maps are using about a 20:1 SLR? Pivotal's Kuchera uses the formula. I'm not sure what Weatherbell's uses. In the winter weather tab of the parameter menu on the side, there's a "Kuchera" which shows what the ratio is for that given time on the model. So on the 12z GFS for hour 63 for example, the Kuchera ratio is 15:1 in your area. The 12z NAM is also at 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: Pivotal's Kuchera uses the formula. I'm not sure what Weatherbell's uses. In the winter weather tab of the parameter menu on the side, there's a "Kuchera" which shows what the ratio is for that given time on the model. So on the 12z GFS for hour 63 for example, the Kuchera ratio is 15:1 in your area. The 12z NAM is also at 15:1 Good info. Tks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Last 6 runs of the Euro for ICT QPF Totals and what that equates to Kuchera snow totals. These totals are through Tuesday 00z. Interesting to see the formula in play and also how even a tiny difference in qpf can make a big difference for snow totals in these very cold temps. 10/00z 0.4" = 6.8" 10/12z 0.6" = 13.4" 11/00z 0.6" = 12.1" 11/12z 0.4" = 9.7" 12/00z 0.5" = 9.9" 12/12z 0.4."= 9.4" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Yeah, that's the thing with Kuchera, it's highly dependent on the model getting the QPF exactly right and the exact temps at the time the precip is falling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 JoMo, you see the 18z HRRR for you??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: JoMo, you see the 18z HRRR for you??? Post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: JoMo, you see the 18z HRRR for you??? haha, that little narrow snowband right IMBY. About 9-10" Kuchera before the main show starts....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Post it For some reason I can screenshot from Pivotal on my phone. Not sure if it doesn’t allow it or it’s user error. Here’s the link though. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021218&fh=48&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Big diff between GFS and Euro for the NW half of AR. GFS very generous for all of AR but not so much on the Euro. GFS16 looks a lot like Euro, though, for AR at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 If this heavy band really lays down this much prior to the main storm that would be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 When all is said and done we're probably looking at a 2-4 event here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 That line on the HRRR can come to the SW a little more and I would be ok with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: For some reason I can screenshot from Pivotal on my phone. Not sure if it doesn’t allow it or it’s user error. Here’s the link though. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021218&fh=48&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc= Thanks brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: If this heavy band really lays down this much prior to the main storm that would be crazy. Snow hole around my house. This is a lock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Most of the other CAMS show this initial band as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 18z NAM is really going to wrap it up at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 18z NAM digs the system in the southwest currently all the way to near Monterrey, MX before turning east. The system behind it is a little deeper (neutral tilt) but also farther south. It has the band the MO/NE OK crowd is keying on, but about 150 miles west over SC KS...develops it in the warm air advection regime as the trof comes out. As JoMo said, it really wraps up on Monday. If that trend continues, look for it to waffle back northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: 18z NAM is really going to wrap it up at the end of the run. We need that a little more NW and we’re golden! is the break in the action between he 60-66ish odd? And feasible? It is the NAM after hour 60 so grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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