StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: ^That still pretty much lines up with TSA's DSP page as it currently sits at this time. Jomo beat me to it. The first system is roughly 9.5 inches for that map on the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Fair enough. TSA is pretty well known to being conservative on their forecasts. Still crazy to think 14in is being "conservative" here though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Except there really isn't a second storm on the Euro tonight for this area. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 hours ago, JoMo said: Except there really isn't a second storm on the Euro tonight for this area. Hmm. EURO has been exceptionally inconsistent in this pattern. I really lean on it a lot most of the time, but it hasn't handled the arctic air well or the progression of any of the recent previous systems. Something to keep an eye on though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Biggest hit in at least a day worth of Euro runs...it has been trending up recently (at least in Kansas), maybe it has an idea finally of what's going on? Stay tuned...: EDIT: This is exclusively the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 58 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Biggest hit in at least a day worth of Euro runs...it has been trending up recently (at least in Kansas), maybe it has an idea finally of what's going on? Stay tuned...: EDIT: This is exclusively the first storm. North trend into Kansas and SW Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 So let's see what happened on the 06z runs. NAM has 3 waves of precip starting with the lead wave, then 2 other waves of precip, bulked the snow up back into OK compared to previous runs. RGEM also has 3 waves of precip starting with the lead wave and 2 other waves of precip. It continues to play catch up with amounts. GFS was farther south with the precip shield on the first storm, and the second storm's precip shield was farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Light snow in Bentonville. Not sure if it’s a minor wave of some type or lake effect off of Beaver Lake??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Light snow in Bentonville. Not sure if it’s a minor wave of some type or lake effect off of Beaver Lake??? It's been lightly snowing here since yesterday or the day before. Days kind of run together. It's probably some weak lift in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Lake-effect snow in midtown Tulsa from Oologah Lake (about 30 miles away). Quite light, but really neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, westhope84 said: Lake-effect snow in midtown Tulsa from Oologah Lake (about 30 miles away). Quite light, but really neat. Got a photo, share the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Looks like the 12z NAM will be better. And more in line with the GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12Z NAM looking more like the long term models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Looks like the 12z NAM will be better. And more in line with the GFS/Euro. Looks like NW AR hit the jackpot of the area this time around, except for far E AR and SW KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 FWIW, the 12z HRRR breaks precip out in OK at the end of it's run. Neat looking band from around Tulsa to Joplin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 12z RGEM is still working on bulking up amounts for what it thinks will happen. 12z ICON has bulked amounts up some. If we're getting snow showers/flurries/light snow for what little lift is available out there now. One would imagine sustained lift and SW flow with an approaching system would generate a more persistent shield of snow without any breaks? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z RGEM is still working on bulking up amounts for what it thinks will happen. 12z ICON has bulked amounts up some. If we're getting snow showers/flurries/light snow for what little lift is available out there now. One would imagine sustained lift and SW flow with an approaching system would generate a more persistent shield of snow without any breaks? I got the sense from looking at the ICON that it was keying in on the next system for Wed/Thu and created the most snow out of that. The difference that the 06z Euro & GFS have over the other short term models is that they have the trof slightly deeper and not as progressive, thus higher snowfall totals. Not sure whether to buy the Sonic the Hedgehog nature of the system or keep with persistence and go with the slower motion. I do agree with you, JoMo, that with this persistent light snow done with very little lift, has to play into our advantage over the weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 The speed probably has to do with more of a positive tilt to the trough early on, until it starts to tilt neutral/negative. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Not quite as high this run, although, am I really going to complain at 9-10 inches of snow? Of course not XD But gotta watch the trend carefully. We were getting an additional few inches because the system wrapped up some and gave us a broad deformation zone, that's not happening as much in these recent runs of the GFS, so hopefully it stops here and maybe even wiggles back west some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12z HRRR this is 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12Z RDPS, Canadian keeps increasing amounts and finally catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 12z GFS V16 was more generous farther north because it was more neutral/negative tilted and also tracked the core farther west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z GFS V16 was more generous farther north because it was more neutral/negative tilted and also tracked the core farther west. It also had the same narrow band at hr 48 that the HRRR shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 If you live in MO. on North, hug the Icon, Canadian, Nam and GFS v16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 12z Canadian drastically increased amounts from last night... Late to the show, Canada... late to the show.... I'm going to set my disappointment threshold to 4" of snow. If I get less than that, I'll be sad, more than that, I'll be ecstatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Canadian drastically increased amounts from last night... Late to the show, Canada... late to the show.... I'm going to set my disappointment threshold to 4" of snow. If I get less than that, I'll be sad, more than that, I'll be ecstatic. Late to the show, but maybe right in my opinion. My threshold is maybe 2inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS ensemble has clearly be trending southward the past 4 runs, with 12z continuing the trend. Looking a little dry in southern Kansas and SW MO now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Canadian drastically increased amounts from last night... Late to the show, Canada... late to the show.... I'm going to set my disappointment threshold to 4" of snow. If I get less than that, I'll be sad, more than that, I'll be ecstatic. Still possibly a few inches short though for much of Oklahoma, and parts of Kansas/Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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