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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


JoMo
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5 hours ago, JoMo said:

Except there really isn't a second storm on the Euro tonight for this area. Hmm.

EURO has been exceptionally inconsistent in this pattern. I really lean on it a lot most of the time, but it hasn't handled the arctic air well or the progression of any of the recent previous systems. Something to keep an eye on though. 

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So let's see what happened on the 06z runs.

NAM has 3 waves of precip starting with the lead wave, then 2 other waves of precip, bulked the snow up back into OK compared to previous runs. 

RGEM also has 3 waves of precip starting with the lead wave and 2 other waves of precip. It continues to play catch up with amounts.

GFS was farther south with the precip shield on the first storm, and the second storm's precip shield was farther west.

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10 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Light snow in Bentonville.  Not sure if it’s a minor wave of some type or lake effect off of Beaver Lake???

It's been lightly snowing here since yesterday or the day before. Days kind of run together. It's probably some weak lift in the cold air.

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12z RGEM is still working on bulking up amounts for what it thinks will happen.

12z ICON has bulked amounts up some.

If we're getting snow showers/flurries/light snow for what little lift is available out there now. One would imagine sustained lift and SW flow with an approaching system would generate a more persistent shield of snow without any breaks?

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5 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z RGEM is still working on bulking up amounts for what it thinks will happen.

12z ICON has bulked amounts up some.

If we're getting snow showers/flurries/light snow for what little lift is available out there now. One would imagine sustained lift and SW flow with an approaching system would generate a more persistent shield of snow without any breaks?

I got the sense from looking at the ICON that it was keying in on the next system for Wed/Thu and created the most snow out of that. 

The difference that the 06z Euro & GFS have over the other short term models is that they have the trof slightly deeper and not as progressive, thus higher snowfall totals. Not sure whether to buy the Sonic the Hedgehog nature of the system or keep with persistence and go with the slower motion. 

I do agree with you, JoMo, that with this persistent light snow done with very little lift, has to play into our advantage over the weekend.

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1613466000-WdLrpwXteXQ.png

Not quite as high this run, although, am I really going to complain at 9-10 inches of snow? Of course not XD

But gotta watch the trend carefully. We were getting an additional few inches because the system wrapped up some and gave us a broad deformation zone, that's not happening as much in these recent runs of the GFS, so hopefully it stops here and maybe even wiggles back west some.

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12z Canadian drastically increased amounts from last night... Late to the show, Canada... late to the show....

I'm going to set my disappointment threshold to 4" of snow. If I get less than that, I'll be sad, more than that, I'll be ecstatic. 

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2 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z Canadian drastically increased amounts from last night... Late to the show, Canada... late to the show....

I'm going to set my disappointment threshold to 4" of snow. If I get less than that, I'll be sad, more than that, I'll be ecstatic. 

Late to the show, but maybe right in my opinion. My threshold is maybe 2inches

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4 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z Canadian drastically increased amounts from last night... Late to the show, Canada... late to the show....

I'm going to set my disappointment threshold to 4" of snow. If I get less than that, I'll be sad, more than that, I'll be ecstatic. 

Still possibly a few inches short though for much of Oklahoma, and parts of Kansas/Missouri.

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