schoeppeya Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS and GFSv16 are gonna smoke Oklahoma in round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 OK smoked on the GFS both rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 You would think at least 1 storm comes north, but doesn’t look like it. The areas around KC are just pivot points. You never want to be a pivot point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS 16 beings the sleet/snow line all the way up near I44 in missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 We are living in a simulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, Solution Man said: You would think at least 1 storm comes north, but doesn’t look like it. The areas around KC are just pivot points. You never want to be a pivot point Story for us is going to be the cold it seems. Otherwise just hoping to salvage an inch or two over the next week. It does seem like the far SE areas of the metro are very close, but I'm also north of the river in Gladstone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Very excited for OK AR and TX though. You deserve this one. Its been far too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I am clearly a pessimist because I do not have any confidence in this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 If I’m in S KS, if the trend today has not been all the best. A deeper, more south-trending storm system. We’ll have to see how deep tomorrow’s system digs to get a better handle on the weekend system. 8 of the 20 members in the 18z GFS Ensembles have less than 6 inches of accumulation thru 96 hours. On to the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said: If I’m in S KS, if the trend today has not been all the best. A deeper, more south-trending storm system. 8 of the 20 members in the 18z GFS Ensembles have less than 6 inches of accumulation thru 96 hours. On to the 00z suite. If it keeps trending South, the equator will be in play....I’ll see myself out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 28 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Wow, that’s bold this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Wow, that’s bold this far out. I would have went with 40-60% that amount at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Tulsa NWS adding again... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 55 minutes ago, ouamber said: Tulsa NWS adding again... 9.5 inch for the Sun/Mon storm. Not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Bit of a traffic jam with that wave around SE TX that keeps slowing down, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 So the NAM is interesting so far, lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, JoMo said: So the NAM is interesting so far, lol For sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Nam = very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Solution Man said: Nam = very interesting NS... Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 In what way is the NAM interesting? Sorry, I don’t have access to model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Interesting because it gives western OK(currently projected to get the most) the very least. The system moves in early Sunday before Sunset and exits quickly. Hence the lighter totals for some. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 That was an odd outcome on the NAM. I’ll take it for me personally but weird nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Has Lucy arrived or is the NAM just toying with our emotions?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: Interesting because it gives western OK(currently projected to get the most) the very least. The system moves in early Sunday before Sunset and exits quickly. Hence the lighter totals for some. So odd that NW ok is getting so little on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Probably the NAM just being awful like usual. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 00z NBM snow map continues to be a compromise between the more bullish ECMWF/GFS and the more bearish GEM. However, something appears to be awry with the aggregate SLRs in the model, as the QPF field would indicate a much more bullish snow solution -- more in line with the GFS/Euro, especially for the western half of Oklahoma. Interestingly there is a rather steep gradient in the QPF output on the NBM that essentially bifurcates Oklahoma and Kansas -- not exactly buying that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Nam at long range taken with a grain of salt, but it has been fairly accurate in long range lately. Nam wants to shove everything northeast fairly quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Nice surprise band currently working through the KC area. We not get the brunt of these storms but its been a deep winter feel of late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, JoMo said: Probably the NAM just being awful like usual. Almost certainly... as usual, this 84 hour NAM forecast can probably go straight into the trash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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