MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I always like to look at qpf and do my own expected ratios from there. Anyone have liquid output from the Euro for NW AR? GFS spits out around .55 here. So maybe 6-10 in of snow as a starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, StormChazer said: Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Both Tulsa and Norman have mentioned potential 1:15-25 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Weatherdemon said: You beat me to it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 NWS TULSA had to change the scale because its so much. lol Its basically a foot of snow or more in the whole CWA. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 If you guys get a chance go look up the video of the 100 car pile up from this morning in DFW. Sends chills seeing how helpless you are on ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 SGF still hasnt put up an accumulations map, but the overnight AFD mentioned 5-8. Ill be interested to see what they say with the afternoon update shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 A good rule of thumb for public forecasting is to find a reasonable (albeit usually somewhat conservative) point and then massage numbers either up or down as needed closer to the event. TSA keeps slowing inching up. I, too, feel like I am waiting for Lucy to pull the football away at the last minute... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, lokee said: If you guys get a chance go look up the video of the 100 car pile up from this morning in DFW. Sends chills seeing how helpless you are on ice. Unbelievable footage. Those poor people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Wow that's a great look for OKC! I'll take my .25 and run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, lokee said: If you guys get a chance go look up the video of the 100 car pile up from this morning in DFW. Sends chills seeing how helpless you are on ice. So sad. Just an awful tragedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Ok, there's just too many models and model runs per day, I'm losing sleep. Welp...Time for the 18z NAM. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, KC Storm said: Wow that's a great look for OKC! I'll take my .25 and run. A few local Mets are buying into light to moderate snow fall late Saturday evening through Monday. If that happens it will equal several inches with temps at 0 and below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: I, too, feel like I am waiting for Lucy to pull the football away at the last minute... So much this. I too want to get excited but I've seen it happen so many times where it looks great then 24-36 hours out the system either comes in weaker/too dry and/or takes a different track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 33 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: This includes pretty decent amount of snow falling on Tuesday and Wednesday, so this isnt the forecast for just the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, MUWX said: This includes pretty decent amount of snow falling on Tuesday and Wednesday, so this isnt the forecast for just the first storm. It's the 7 day total. 9.5 for Mon-Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 NWS in Tulsa issued a winter weather advisory for like 3 counties here in Tulsa metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Now I've seen it all. Tulsa-Rogers-Creek- Including the cities of Tulsa, Claremore, and Sapulpa 215 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. Very cold wind chills expected late tonight into Friday morning. Wind chills as low as 10 below zero. * WHERE...Tulsa, Rogers and Creek Counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 AM CST Friday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 3 AM to noon CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions along the lake effect snow band. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Frost bite and hypothermia are possible if precautions are not taken late tonight into Friday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, StormChazer said: NWS in Tulsa issued a winter weather advisory for like 3 counties here in Tulsa metro. For lake effect snow, too. That is crazy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Tulsa OK 222 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121100- Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian- Pushmataha-Choctaw-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee- Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner- Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell- Latimer-Le Flore- Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville, Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren, Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah, Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler, Wilburton, and Poteau 222 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 ...POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY... A strong upper level storm system is expected to move across the region Sunday into Monday, drawing moisture over a deepening and very cold arctic air mass. As a result, several inches of snow is expected, and can be heavy at times. The snow, combined with gusty north winds will create a lot of blowing and drifting of snow and dangerous travel conditions. In addition, there is some potential for power outages as winds increase with ice on the lines from the recent weather. It is still too early to get specific regarding amounts and locations, but current indications are that much if not all of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will be impacted. We are still several days out, so the finer details can change in the days ahead. Stay tuned to the latest forecast updates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Springfield afternoon AFD on snowfall: Quote Models continue to bring potentially significant snowfall across the Ozarks during the 48 hour period from Sunday morning through early Tuesday morning. Several models and probabilistic outputs have continued to show accumulating snowfall during this period. SOme of these have been very bullish on amounts and with very cold temperatures producing unusually high Snow to Liquid Ratios (SLR) this explains some of the amounts forecast. For our area used a blend of the NBM/CONSALL in a 50/50 split with minor editing. This process provided an output of 4-8 inches of snow across the area. There are several caveats to this though. The track of the system may change, the amount of moisture available may change and there may be minor temperature differences could all have impacts on snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 NAM ramping up at hour 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 18z NAM up from .9 to 1.5 for Tulsa at 00z Monday. 3.7 by 06z with more snow to go. QPF for NC OK where the snow is ending at 06z is at .28 vs .33 on the 12z run. Tulsa up from .07 to .28 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 TSA Discussion. Now to the meat of the forecast. Model data continues to be very consistent for days (scary) in bringing the next upper storm system into the Plains Sunday and Monday. Looks like a very favorable setup synoptically (coupled jets, upper diffluent flow) for a major winter storm, with the feel of February 2011. We have a deepening arctic air mass in place, and favorable dynamics to draw in moisture and produce lift over this cold air. Snow ratios will be increasing with time, potentially rising to 20:1 or higher across the north, while QPF will be higher in the south. So it appears that all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will be under the gun. The snow, which could be heavy at times, will combine with gusty north winds to produce a lot of blowing and drifting of snow and dangerous travel conditions. That said, we are still several days out and details can change so it`s still too early to get specific with amounts and locations. A Special Weather Statement has been issued with a Winter Storm Watch likely coming tonight or tomorrow. If that wasn`t enough another system will follow it on its heels and will spread more snow over our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. The winds will not be as strong with this system. It is a one-two punch of sorts. In the wake of this system, a pattern change is expected, with the blocking pattern finally breaking down and evolving into a low- amplitude progressive regime. We will warm up eventually, once operation snowmelt is completed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Like I said I'm betting TSA's near 3k day streak of no Blizzard Warnings Issued is about to come to an end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Looking like the real deal folks. Setups like this with amplifying waves coming immediately in behind a PV lobe pushing a strong Arctic high into the Plains (and therefore not needing to worry about Ptype issues around here or even in TX) are exceedingly rare. The first storm next week is one thing (and obviously there is bust potential from dry slots/lack of moisture initially/exact track/suppression due to the Arctic air mass, etc.), but the real wild card is if it can be doubled up with the wave on its heels, which seems to be an increasingly possible scenario. Does remind me a bit of the cold snap and back to back storms in Feb 2011. Regardless, the answer to the question in the thread/topic description should be a resounding yes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 ^ YES!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Winter Storm watches blossoming up from North Texas and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 First storm. 18ZGFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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