JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 No big surprises in the 12z UKMET either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Not looking forward to AWFUL roads again. The roads on Sunday/Monday were brutal across most of the metro, even in Johnson County which typically does a great job plowing and keeping roads clear. I sub and we lost Mon and Tues to virtual. The roads were awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, KC Storm said: I sub and we lost Mon and Tues to virtual. The roads were awful. Big story here will be temps and -30+ wind chills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
draco1188 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Long time lurker and was just curious on some perspective.. if this gets a more neutral position rather than the positive tilt, will this result in a greater chance of a dry slot forming? Or is a dry slot something that could happen with either situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, draco1188 said: Long time lurker and was just curious on some perspective.. if this gets a more neutral position rather than the positive tilt, will this result in a greater chance of a dry slot forming? Or is a dry slot something that could happen with either situation? Possible but it really depends on the track. If the storm got a bit too far west given the trough turning earlier its possible but I wouldn't sweat it just yet. You looking pretty good down that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
draco1188 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, KC Storm said: Possible but it really depends on the track. If the storm got a bit too far west given the trough turning earlier its possible but I wouldn't sweat it just yet. You looking pretty good down that way! Man, I really hope so! I haven't seen a good snow here since Christmas 2012. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Continuing to snow lightly here, ground is petty well covered. With expected temps and could cover, I wouldn't be surprised if this remains on the ground until the potential big storm starts. It would be nice to finally have an event where half of the snow doesn't melt on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just for laughs. This was the weather channel's temperature outlook for February. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Through 84, def a south shift on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Central OK will be the big winner this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: Through 84, def a south shift on the 12z Euro. Is the wave deeper on the Euro, or something else forcing it south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Euro keeping on keeping on. Little bit higher QPF than previous run. Edit: Will add a pic of the second storm's total in a few min. But this run of the Euro is going nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Is the wave deeper on the Euro, or something else forcing it south? No, and I'm not sure. It just digs farther south this run. The system after that will probably be farther south as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 NWS in Norman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Euro even takes the pity flakes away from KC area with second storm....too funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Here is the totals from both storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Not to be a downer but from living through so many east coast storms just a heads up on the Kuchie maps. They are fun but they are normally way over done. I hope it is right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, KC Storm said: Not to be a downer but from living through so many east coast storms just a heads up on the Kuchie maps. They are fun but they are normally way over done. I hope it is right though. I don’t fundamentally disagree with your statement. However, this will be happening with very cold temps so I would say it’s more plausible than normal. In a typical situation I don’t look at Kuchera ever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, KC Storm said: Not to be a downer but from living through so many east coast storms just a heads up on the Kuchie maps. They are fun but they are normally way over done. I hope it is right though. I think the weatherbell Kuchera map is way overdone. I'm not sure why it is always so much higher than the one at pivotal weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, KC Storm said: Not to be a downer but from living through so many east coast storms just a heads up on the Kuchie maps. They are fun but they are normally way over done. I hope it is right though. I am to an east coaster and have been burned...D.C. area. Grain of salt with those maps. But I hope it happens, I think it’s a win getting half of that map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, JoMo said: I think the weatherbell Kuchera map is way overdone. I'm not sure why it is always so much higher than the one at pivotal weather. My rule of thumb is slash it in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I am to an east coaster and have been burned...D.C. area. Grain of salt with those maps. But I hope it happens, I think it’s a win getting half of that map Same, grew up in south Jersey most of my life. Been burnt but those were lil stove burns compared to the forest fire burns I have experienced in this place lol. Most of my memories are from the 80's-90's and big ole noreasters dumping tons of snow at once. Glad I got to witness that type of thing in my time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Everyone is right that under normal circumstances Kuchera SLRs do fairly poor, and almost always overestimate snowfall. But we are talking about 15:1 to potentially 25:1 SLRs for most people here basing off current temp forecasts. In this situation I don't think the Kuchera snowfall numbers are signifcantly off, espeically on Pivotal weather -- WxBell seems a hair higher for whatever reason. For anyone with a distrust of the Kuchera snow outputs, just manually multiply QPFs by 15 or 20 or 25 to give you a rough idea of what we could be looking at (its pretty similar to what is being shown). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Anyone else finding themselves waiting for this storm to totally fall apart? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 34 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Here is the totals from both storms. This map looks completely different than the Pivotal Kuchera map. And by a lot. Pivotal shows the heaviest amounts up through Central Ark and 10” for OKC. How are the two off by so much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I always like to look at qpf and do my own expected ratios from there. Anyone have liquid output from the Euro for NW AR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: This map looks completely different than the Pivotal Kuchera map. And by a lot. Pivotal shows the heaviest amounts up through Central Ark and 10” for OKC. How are the two off by so much? You have a sub to pivotalweather? Euro Kuchera is only available with sub. The numbers are off though, so I'm not sure if Pivotals or Weatherbell's algorithm is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I always like to look at qpf and do my own expected ratios from there. Anyone have liquid output from the Euro for NW AR? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, JoMo said: You have a sub to pivotalweather? Euro Kuchera is only available with sub. The numbers are off though, so I'm not sure if Pivotals or Weatherbell's algorithm is off. That’s right! Totally forgot that. No, I don’t have a subscription. That explains a majority of it. I like the WB map much better anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 hours ago, StormChazer said: Take this for example posted this morning, and compared it to same image at Pivotal. https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021112/111/snku_acc.us_c.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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