JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 No big changes or surprises with the 12z NAM it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Here's up to 6PM Sunday on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 From Norman ...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK... A significant snowstorm is expected to begin Saturday night in northwest Oklahoma, then spread quickly southeast through the day on Sunday. The heaviest snowfall will probably occur Sunday night and early Monday. Snowfall totals of 5 to 10 inches will be the rule, with higher amounts in some areas. The "dry" nature of the snow will make it particularly susceptible to being blown around by the wind, and drifting snow is likely. Near-blizzard conditions may occur in unprotected areas Sunday night and Monday. In addition to the snow, very cold weather and moderate winds will produce dangerously cold wind chills throughout Oklahoma and north Texas from Saturday through Tuesday. Please refer to our Hazardous Weather Outlook for additional details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 06z GFSv16 finally out to be 108 on Pivotal. Still looks solid. Looks better than the 06z GFS. The storm is just getting to AR/MO at 96. Having issues on my phone posting the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 A little more nervous on this GFS run because the ICON had a flatter wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 06 GFSv16 through 168 went bonkers! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Light snow in Okc been going all morning. Going to get a pretty good dusting on the grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 17 minutes ago, JoMo said: A little more nervous on this GFS run because the ICON had a flatter wave. Looks like another big GFS run inbound.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Looks like another big GFS run inbound.... I was sweating that one. Still a lot to be concerned about as far as the heavier amounts goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, JoMo said: I was sweating that one. Still a lot to be concerned about as far as the heavier amounts goes. Agreed completely. Wave amplitude is my biggest concern right now. Thankfully, this should start getting better sampled later today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Looks like 12z GFS was a bit of a snowfall upgrade for most compared to the 06z, but still a tad less than 00z. Getting close to that period in model land where it is hard for them to be off astronomically. Meteorology is often a humbling science. In this case, the difference between 6" of snow and over a foot of snow comes down to nebulous details of isobars several thousands of feet up in the atmosphere, in addition to other mostly nuanced factors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Looks like 12z GFS was a bit of a snowfall upgrade for most compared to the 06z, but still a tad less than 00z. Getting close to that period in model land where it is hard for them to be off astronomically. It’s hard not to already be excited about the possibilities even though there are plenty of opportunities to screw us over. The GFS has stood its ground since at least Monday. Maybe we can all breathe a bit easier in about 48 hours once this gets sampled. I’ll admit it, I’m giddy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 The main failure point would be a weaker wave that doesn't take on a neutral/neg tilt. If this is just a positive open trough, then that wouldn't be good for big snow totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Can someone post the 06 v16 clown map? It’s insanity but fun to look at. 3 feet for Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, JoMo said: The main failure point would be a weaker wave that doesn't take on a neutral/neg tilt. If this is just a positive open trough, then that wouldn't be good for big snow totals. Thankfully the Canadian is mostly on an island of its own wrt a weaker less amplified wave... Not to say that it couldn't end up winning on this system vs the other globals, but just seems unlikely. Seems like the 84hr NAM is more like the Euro/GFS, as well... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Can someone post the 06 v16 clown map? It’s insanity but fun to look at. 3 feet for Tulsa. For posterity thru 240hrs. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 12z GEM did take a step in the right direction, still not exciting to look at but it's improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, jojo762 said: For posterity thru 240hrs. Will file it under U for unbelievable. No way the KC region sniffs 2ft of snow. Everything slides south or goes north around here. Thanks for sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 12z GFS V16 ups the amounts with the first system. EDIT: Watch it beat the 06z map posted above, hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z GFS V16 ups the amounts with the first system. EDIT: Watch it beat the 06z map posted above, hahah Oh it did lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, lokee said: Oh it did lol lol. Enjoy your 43" of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, JoMo said: lol. Enjoy your 43" of snow. Ok. I will cash out with that. No need for any additional runs. Thanks 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, JoMo said: lol. Enjoy your 43" of snow. We would loose my niece. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Will file it under U for unbelievable. No way the KC region sniffs 2ft of snow. Everything slides south or goes north around here. Thanks for sharing Yup. Just hoping to sneak a coating to an inch Friday night and an inch or two Sunday and then let it warm up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, KC Storm said: Yup. Just hoping to sneak a coating to an inch Friday night and an inch or two Sunday and then let it warm up lol. Agree, kind of brutal when you have the climate and can’t snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Agree, kind of brutal when you have the climate and can’t snow Not looking forward to AWFUL roads again. The roads on Sunday/Monday were brutal across most of the metro, even in Johnson County which typically does a great job plowing and keeping roads clear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Not looking forward to AWFUL roads again. The roads on Sunday/Monday were brutal across most of the metro, even in Johnson County which typically does a great job plowing and keeping roads clear. Yep, this dusting crap causes more problems with temps constantly near 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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