JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Yeah the 00z ICON was neat. Built in neg tilt to the trough, and then basically repeats the storm track again on Tues night/Wed with the next system reloading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 23 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Thankfully in this instance there is no warm sector vs cold sector. Looks like everyone in Icon scenario cashes in for all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Looks like everyone in Icon scenario cashes in Just hoping for a couple inches of fluff while our southern friends cash in. The prospect of so many areas seeing snow with temps below 10F so far south is an interesting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS setting up for yet another fun run all the way down in TX and OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 When will this get sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, ouamber said: When will this get sampled? Not 100% sure but looks like Saturday morning to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 What a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Yeah, it assumes a negative tilt sooner this run. Overall, I like it better (personally) than the 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 00z GFS is bigly for all of Oklahoma, the entire northwest corner of Texas, all of Kansas, and the southern half of Missouri. All these areas receive a bare minimum of 6" with most receiving 10"+. That would be an impressive storm... But given that SLR's are likely to be unfathomably efficient for our neck of the woods, it's not all that unexpected with a juiced storm system. For posterity: Wichita: 11" Joplin: 12" Tulsa: 12"+ OKC metro: 12"+ Amarillo: 12"+ Dodge City: 12"+ Topeka: 6" KC metro: 4-6" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, JoMo said: Yeah, it assumes a negative tilt sooner this run. Overall, I like it better (personally) than the 12z and 18z. It’s going negative tilt and will continue that trend, GFS is following Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: 00z GFS is bigly for all of Oklahoma, the entire northwest corner of Texas, all of Kansas, and the southern half of Missouri. All these areas receive a bare minimum of 6" with most receiving 10"+. That would be an impressive storm... But given that SLR's are likely to be unfathomably efficient for our neck of the woods, it's not all that unexpected with a juiced storm system. Can't wait for the Kuchera clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Southern MO crushed on the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said: Can't wait for the Kuchera clown map. There's one on pivotal. Not sure why the Weatherbell one has higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said: Can't wait for the Kuchera clown map. Will be a weenie portrait for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS has the Wed/Thurs storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, JoMo said: There's one on pivotal. Not sure why the Weatherbell one has higher amounts. Found it on WxBell....enjoy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 ^LOL, that’s not even including the Wed-Thursday storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 down, 9 to go lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I’m not great a figuring out winds off of models, but drifting could be a big issue with this fluff, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, The Waterboy said: GFS has the Wed/Thurs storm too. Yep, redevelops the trough. Even more snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 It’s good but I prefer 12 or 18z for central Oklahoma. I don’t like the north shift and the more SW-NE axis of heaviest snow on this one. Really screws over our north Texas friends. One more shift like that and OKC-Tulsa would be on the edge of the good stuff. Still an amazing run but the jog north is a little concerning still being 4 days out. I’m sure you guys in Kansas loved this one though. We’ll see what the ensembles say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, MUWX said: I’m not great a figuring out winds off of models, but drifting could be a big issue with this fluff, correct? Yeah, the GFS has 20-25 mph winds across SE KS, much of OK and SW MO during the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, JoMo said: Yeah, the GFS has 20-25 mph winds across SE KS, much of OK and SW MO during the snow. With SLR's likely to be in the 25-30:1 range, it will be much easier to get white out conditions than we normally would. If the GFS is correct, such conditions are a lock for W KS, OK and parts of N TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 For those wanting a potentially more tempered, cautious approach, here's the NWS NBM 00z snow output for this weekend's storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: It’s good but I prefer 12 or 18z for central Oklahoma. I don’t like the north shift and the more SW-NE axis of heaviest snow on this one. Really screws over our north Texas friends. One more shift like that and OKC-Tulsa would be on the edge of the good stuff. Still an amazing run but the jog north is a little concerning still being 4 days out. I’m sure you guys in Kansas loved this one though. We’ll see what the ensembles say. Brought it a little more in line with the 12z Euro. The Euro is still a bit farther north than the GFS but the general snow field lines up more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Winds will likely be 20-30, gusts to 40 across much of Oklahoma and Kansas, maybe a bit less further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: For those wanting a potentially more tempered, cautious approach, here's the NWS NBM 00z snow output for this weekend's storm. Took about being frozen. Crazy widespread stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Why does Weatherbell always look north of Pivotal Weather or Tropical Tidbits? It’s looks off to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Weenie map both storms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 00z Canadian remains relatively unenthused with the Sunday/Monday system but is enthused by the Tues/Wed system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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