Solution Man Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 hours ago, JoMo said: Euro has a bunch of snow in KS this run. All except for the far SE corner that is. Model changes all the time. Yep, looks like a bullseye event in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 00z GFS and Euro looking interesting. TV Meteorologists also taking note of it on their social media posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Uh... is it going to, um, SNOW IN TULSA? Like, enough to make a snowball? Will I remember how to make a snowball? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Been 7 years since Tulsa saw a 3 in+ snow. Starting to notice a trend on models show a solid 2-3 inch swath across much of Oklahoma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Where it does snow with the Sunday system, the surface temps are near/above freezing so there would be minimal impact unless it came down at a heavy enough rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Bit of a shift north on the 12z GFS. Temps are going to be pretty marginal but snow falling is snow falling, especially in the daytime. Edit: Another system with spotty chances for rain/snow on Tues keeps showing up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 12Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 These are the storms I prefer. Not a bomb modeled 7 days out, only to diminish in the last 72 hours, but one that creeps up, and seemingly out of nowhere 3 days out to be a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, StormChazer said: These are the storms I prefer. Not a bomb modeled 7 days out, only to diminish in the last 72 hours, but one that creeps up, and seemingly out of nowhere 3 days out to be a nice surprise. Quantity over Quality? I just want snow, doesn't have to stick, just some good mood snow before Christmas, but the marginal temp profile worries me, plus the possibility that it could always trend north as time goes on due to lack of cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, JoMo said: Quantity over Quality? I just want snow, doesn't have to stick, just some good mood snow before Christmas, but the marginal temp profile worries me, plus the possibility that it could always trend north as time goes on due to lack of cold air. Agreed, although anything that can survive that day should solidly freeze that night(before melting Mon). Is this a thick airmass or shallow? That'll help determine how well the models are handling the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Agreed, although anything that can survive that day should solidly freeze that night(before melting Mon). Is this a thick airmass or shallow? That'll help determine how well the models are handling the cold air. According to the 12z GFS....Surface is very marginal. 925 MB temps are around 0 to -2 C with surface temps hovering around freezing or just above. 850's and 700's look good so no mixed precip issues it looks like. The 12z NAM is colder though with 925 MB temps around -3 or -4 C. So looks like we're going to depend on some 'dynamic cooling' from the lift and precip rates to cool the surface to around freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Christmas Eve though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: Christmas Eve though... Wouldn't that be a dream come true!! 19th isn't so bad either if it came true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Latest Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Who do I need to speak to in order to lock this in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Who do I need to speak to in order to lock this in? You know how this turns out, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, MUWX said: You know how this turns out, right? Yes, lol. Slashed by half and north. But a man can dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Tulsa AFD this afternoon: Quote Precip type will be dictated by temperatures profiles in the lowest levels as temps aloft will be well cold enough for all snow. Strong lift and a well saturated dendritic growth zone would favor a corridor of heavier snow potential, however lack of preceding cold air and timing of day would favor much less potential. Ensemble data also show low potential of sufficiently cold low level temps so precip rate will be instrumental in realizing any heavier totals across NE OK. Elevated roadways and grassy surfaces are most likely to see accumulations and impacts are likely to remain low assuming low level temps remain near or just above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 The NAM may be good at picking out the max potential for snowfall within the heaviest band, but it is definitely the northeastern outlier in placement of the band compared to the other models. Euro/GFS ensembles are further south and west with the swath of snow. NAM may still be a bit out of its range at this point and I'd trust the other models more on placement for now. It's always very tricky forecasting these mesoscale snow bands. Models usually shift around in placement even within 12 hours. Expect more changes but right now areas across northwest OK/southern KS are favored for accumulations due to colder temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Latest GFS(18Z) VS NAM(18Z) Pretty similar as of right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 It looks like we still have another 24-36 hours before the system comes ashore. We have several runs to go before it’s fully sampled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I love when snow misses me to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, MUWX said: I love when snow misses me to the south haha, well just remember that the snow in Nebraska tomorrow was supposed to be in E KS and it crept north. Of course, knowing our luck, the next round will creep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, JoMo said: haha, well just remember that the snow in Nebraska tomorrow was supposed to be in E KS and it crept north. Of course, knowing our luck, the next round will creep south. KC snowhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 21 minutes ago, Solution Man said: KC snowhole The kc snow hole has absolutely nothing on this area. I haven’t seen a snow of more than 2” since 2013 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, MUWX said: The kc snow hole has absolutely nothing on this area. I haven’t seen a snow of more than 2” since 2013 We will change that this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: We will change that this year I have my doubts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I love snow and winter weather, but retrospectively I actually really dislike it. All the potholes snow/ice create around here are abysmal... Omaha can keep their darn impossible snowfall forecast. Jokes aside, i'm not sure whether to be optimistic or pessimistic about the chances of a light dusting of snow on Saturday morning here in KC... Most of it would likely fall after I get up out of bed, so it'd be at least some form of entertainment for a bit. But thinking temps might *still* be to warm to definitively say we would get a snow p-type versus light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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