rockchalk83 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 One thing to keep in mind, the snow will be falling into brutally cold temps (near zero and below). Here's a look at Monday morning wind chills, with a north wind at 10-15 mph. Wind chills like these will have a huge impact on people outdoors and cattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 20 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: One thing to keep in mind, the snow will be falling into brutally cold temps (near zero and below). Here's a look at Monday morning wind chills, with a north wind at 10-15 mph. Brutal cold air, have seen how that has worked out this week. Hard to saturate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOkie_124 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Another frequent lurker, that rarely posts here... It's been a nearly solid sheet of ice here at my house since Sunday afternoon/evening here with the exception of the highly traveled roads. I'm just west of Enid on 412. I'm looking forward to a potential massive snow myself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Long time lurker who moved to the KC area from NJ in 2019. Glad to see this disco picking up. Looks like some interesting times ahead. Hopefully our southern members get in on the action this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 16 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Brutal cold air, have seen how that has worked out this week. Hard to saturate Yup just too much of a good thing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 40 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Brutal cold air, have seen how that has worked out this week. Hard to saturate We’ve had light snow all week down here. So, we’re saturated and there has been just enough lift to make it happen. That changes this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 My concern with Monday is a slide too far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 I have multiple Monday concerns. System being too far south. System being too weak or too positively tilted. It's not set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Add to that probably a fast mover. I just never get a good feel about these well advertised systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I will agree there is huge potential for the "hypetrain" to get derailed on this. A couple more days will hopefully tell us for sure which way this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I do think if you are setting your sights on a 13" snow you are setting yourself up for disappointment. That's why I hate when people see a forecast range of snow... say 3-6"... and then they think they will get 6". If you are looking for a decent accumulating snowfall then I think you should be feeling pretty good right about now. I haven't glanced at the ensembles today.... do any of them show a complete miss? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: I do think if you are setting your sights on a 13" snow you are setting yourself up for disappointment. That's why I hate when people see a forecast range of snow... say 3-6"... and then they think they will get 6". If you are looking for a decent accumulating snowfall then I think you should be feeling pretty good right about now. I haven't glanced at the ensembles today.... do any of them show a complete miss? Spot on. And yes a couple ensemble posts were made a few pages back from the GFS and Euro. Nearly all are showing the area getting slammed. The attached image below is from the latest 18z run on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: I do think if you are setting your sights on a 13" snow you are setting yourself up for disappointment. That's why I hate when people see a forecast range of snow... say 3-6"... and then they think they will get 6". If you are looking for a decent accumulating snowfall then I think you should be feeling pretty good right about now. I haven't glanced at the ensembles today.... do any of them show a complete miss? The Oklahoma Mets seem to be pretty guilty of this right now. Putting out a graphic that shows 3/4 of Oklahoma getting 6-12+ at this range seems like a bad idea, especially this far in advance. I thought SGF put out the best graphic of anyone so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, MUWX said: The Oklahoma Mets seem to be pretty guilty of this right now. Putting out a graphic that shows 3/4 of Oklahoma getting 6-12+ at this range seems like a bad idea, especially this far in advance. I thought SGF put out the best graphic of anyone so far. Fortunately a guy I follow the most out of Oklahoma is being realistic. Mike Collier at KJRH Channel 2 in Tulsa. https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/posts/263396651804279 Travis Meyer (KOTV Channel 6 Tulsa) is also pretty cautious on what he posts too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Fortunately a guy I follow the most out of Oklahoma is being realistic. Mike Collier at KJRH Channel 2 in Tulsa. https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/posts/263396651804279 Travis Meyer (KOTV Channel 6 Tulsa) is also pretty cautious on what he posts too. Personally, I’m a big fan of the guy in the comment section asking if the output shown is in feet or inches lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On a side note, fairly misty out there again. Everything has a nice glaze of ice on it now here, not sure how the roads are but the sidewalks and driveways are an ice skaters dream. Sitting at 22 here, nearly 21 which is the forecasted low for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Shoot must have just had some snow frizzle, everything got white outside lol. Not pouring snow but darn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 31 minutes ago, MUWX said: Personally, I’m a big fan of the guy in the comment section asking if the output shown is in feet or inches lol The way some people have been posting on social media it is almost a legitimate concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: The way some people have been posting on social media it is almost a legitimate concern. Most of the time overhyped = underperforming. Very cautious here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 End of NAM looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Only 10 more nail- biting runs of the GFS left before possible issuance of WSW's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, MoWeatherguy said: Only 10 more nail- biting runs of the GFS left before possible issuance of WSW's. About 4 runs until it loses the storm completely for 2 runs, inducing mass panic. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said: End of NAM looks interesting. I was just thinking that too but then I told myself it’s the NAM at 84. Ha! Regardless, very good look if we extrapolate it out the next 3 or 4 frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: I was just thinking that too but then I told myself it’s the NAM at 84. Ha! Regardless, very good look if we extrapolate it out the next 3 or 4 frames. I know. I am just reaching for anything to keep me optimistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: About 4 runs until it loses the storm completely for 2 runs, inducing mass panic. You stop that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: About 4 runs until it loses the storm completely for 2 runs, inducing mass panic. I am making a grocery run tomorrow afternoon. That should time up quite nicely! Side note: cooling off here more than forecast. I am down to 14 already. We were supposed to bottom out at 16. Maybe it will steady out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: About 4 runs until it loses the storm completely for 2 runs, inducing mass panic. IKR, suicide watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, NWAflizzard said: I know. I am just reaching for anything to keep me optimistic! I’m right there with you. Optimism is the name of the game for now. Plenty of time to be pissed later if this all falls apart. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Icon on to another scenario, running the storm through Missouri and Illinois from Texas and Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Icon on to another scenario, running the storm through Missouri and Illinois from Texas and Oklahoma Thankfully in this instance there is no warm sector vs cold sector. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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